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New Result in Theory of Consumption: Changes in Savings and Income Growth

  • Cheng K. Wu

    (Fintech Research Associates)

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Hall (1978) theorized that future consumption could be written only as a function of its current consumption. Since this result is known to be wrong in data, we reexamine, from Flavin's original equations (1981), how they may have reached this conclusion. In the Appendix, we derive a generic permanent income equation and discuss Flavin's imprecision. Furthermore, by replacing one of Flavin's three basic equations and adding the definition of savings, we find that changes in savings should also be a function of labor income growth, a solution anticipated by Modigliani and Brumberg (1952, published 1979).

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 9706007.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 23 Jun 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9706007
Note: Type of Document - Word Perfect 6.0 DOS; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP Laserjet 4; pages: 13 . In case you need, I have Flavin's two comments
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Alan J. Auerbach & James M. Poterba, 1987. "Why Have Corporate Tax Revenues Declined?," NBER Working Papers 2118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Modigliani, Franco, 1988. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers and Life Cycle Saving in the Accumulation of Wealth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 15-40, Spring.
  3. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
  4. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  5. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
  6. Robert E. Hall & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1980. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," NBER Working Papers 0505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Andrew Dean & Martine Durand & John Fallon & Peter Hoeller, 1989. "Saving Trends and Behaviour in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 67, OECD Publishing.
  8. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September.
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  10. John Y. Campbell, 1986. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Koenig, Evan F, 1990. "Real Money Balances and the Timing of Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 399-425, May.
  12. Stephen Zeldes, . "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 24-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  13. Robert N. McCauley & Steven A. Zimmer, 1989. "Explaining international differences in the cost of capital," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 7-28.
  14. Blecker, Robert A, 1989. "International Competition, Income Distribution and Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 395-412, September.
  15. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Lawrence H. Summers, 1980. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 0445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Campbell, John Y & Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Why Is Consumption So Smooth?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 357-73, July.
  17. A. Steven Englander & Charles Steindel, 1989. "Evaluating recent trends in capital formation," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 7-19.
  18. Thomas J. Sargent, 1977. "Rational expectations, econometric exogeneity and consumption," Staff Report 25, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October.
  20. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct.
  21. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  23. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  25. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
  26. Hooper, P. & Mann, C.L., 1989. "The Emergence And Persistence Of The U.S. External Imbalance, 1980-87," Princeton Studies in International Economics 65, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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