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L’incidence des régimes publics de pensions sur la consommation : une extension du modèle de Feldstein et une évaluation empirique pour le Canada

  • Fauvel, Yvon

    (Université du Québec à Montréal)

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    This paper deals with the effects of public pension plans on consumption in the context of a macroeconomic model which does not retain the life cycle hypothesis as the only way of explaining consumer behaviour. This model identifies two distinct types of effects of public pension plans : life cycle effects (Feldstein type) and effects associated with myopic behaviour and borrowing constraints, with the second tending to offset the first. Using quarterly data for Canada, the econometric results suggest that borrowing constraints and myopic behaviour play a leading role and that to ignore these factors very likely leaves us open to important errors in pension policy evaluation. Our results also confirm Feldstein's conclusion that life cycle effects stimulate consumption spending. Cet article traite de l’incidence des régimes publics de pensions sur la consommation dans le cadre d’un modèle macroéconomique qui ne retient pas l’hypothèse du cycle de vie comme schéma unique d’explication du comportement des consommateurs. Ce modèle identifie deux catégories d’effets du système public de rentes : des effets cycle de vie (de type Feldstein) et des effets associés aux comportements de myopie et aux contraintes à l’emprunt, les seconds compensant les premiers. L’estimation du modèle avec des données trimestrielles canadiennes suggère que les contraintes à l’emprunt et les comportements de myopie jouent un rôle déterminant et que les ignorer nous expose vraisemblablement à d’importantes erreurs dans l’évaluation des effets des politiques de pensions. Nos résultats confirment aussi la conclusion de Feldstein quant à une influence nette positive des effets de cycle de vie sur les dépenses de consommation.

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    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 62 (1986)
    Issue (Month): 2 (juin)
    Pages: 210-235

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:62:y:1986:i:2:p:210-235
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    1. Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-81, March.
    2. Alan S. Blinder, 1978. "Temporary Income Taxes and Consumer Spending," NBER Working Papers 0283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Leimer, Dean R & Lesnoy, Selig D, 1982. "Social Security and Private Saving: New Time-Series Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 606-29, June.
    4. Michael R. Darby, 1978. "The Effects of Social Security on Income and the Capital Stock," UCLA Economics Working Papers 095, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. Dolde, Walter, 1980. "Issues and models in empirical research on aggregate consumer expenditure," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 161-205, January.
    6. Darby, Michael R, 1972. "The Allocation of Transitory Income Among Consumers' Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 928-41, December.
    7. Mervyn A. King & Louis Dicks-Mireaux, 1981. "Asset Holdings and the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 0614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Fair, Ray C, 1970. "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 507-16, May.
    9. King, M A & Dicks-Mireaux, L-D L, 1982. "Asset Holdings and the Life-Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 247-67, June.
    10. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October.
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