IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v97y1989i4p988-91.html

Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption: A Correction

Author

Listed:
  • English, William B
  • Miron, Jeffrey A
  • Wilcox, David W

Abstract

Recent empirical work has found that both aggregate and micro data reject the rational expectations version of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income model of consumption. This paper examines a new possible explanation for the rejections: the treatment of seasonal fluctuations. There are substantial seasonal fluctuations in consumption purchases, but no previous paper has determined whether these fluctuations are consistent with the Life Cycle-Permanent Income model. The results in this paper show that when the seasonal fluctuations in consumption purchases are included in an analysis of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income model there is no evidence in the aggregate data against the model. The estimates of the parameters of agents' utility functions obtained here are plausible, and the data do not reject the overidentifying restrictions on the model.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)<
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • English, William B & Miron, Jeffrey A & Wilcox, David W, 1989. "Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption: A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 988-991, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:97:y:1989:i:4:p:988-91
    DOI: 10.1086/261638
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261638
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. See http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE for details.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/261638?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
    2. Hardouvelis, Gikas & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Cho, Sungwon, 1998. "Time-series implications of the permanent income hypothesis on durable goods consumption," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000012849, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Cellini, Roberto & Cuccia, Tiziana, 2011. "Are exchange rates really free from seasonality? An exploratory analysis on monthly time series," MPRA Paper 30888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tu, Teng-Tsai, 1998. "An entropic approach to equity market integration and consumption-based capital asset pricing models," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000012895, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Brusset, Xavier & Fortin, Maxime, 2015. "Assessing and hedging the cost of unseasonal weather: Case of the apparel sector," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 261-276.
    7. Andrew B. Abel & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1988. "Does the Consumption of Different Age Groups Move Together? A New Nonparametric Test of Intergenerational Altruism," NBER Working Papers 2490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Masao Ogaki, 2003. "Aggregation under Complete Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 977-986, October.
    9. Ogaki, Masao & Park, Joon Y., 1997. "A cointegration approach to estimating preference parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 107-134.
    10. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2000. "The effects of weather on retail sales," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Julian Thimme, 2017. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 226-257, February.
    12. Arrau, Patricio & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1991. "Intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and private savings in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 682, The World Bank.
    13. Alastair R. Hall, 2013. "Generalized Method of Moments," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 14, pages 313-333, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July.
    15. Gianluca Cubadda, 2001. "Common Features In Time Series With Both Deterministic And Stochastic Seasonality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 201-216.
    16. Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Rafael Flores de Frutos, 2004. "Seasonal Fluctuations and Dynamic Equilibrium Models of Exchange Rate," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0413, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    17. He, Hua & Modest, David M, 1995. "Market Frictions and Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 94-117, February.
    18. Kris Jacobs & Kevin Q. Wang, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-11, CIRANO.
    19. Domenico Depalo, 2009. "A seasonal unit-root test with Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 9(3), pages 422-438, September.
    20. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-1157, December.
    21. Sangdai Ryoo, 2002. "Testing for Sunspot in the Foreign Exchange Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 39-58.
    22. Ferson, Wayne E. & Constantinides, George M., 1991. "Habit persistence and durability in aggregate consumption: Empirical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-240, October.
    23. Stig V. Møller & Jesper Rangvid, 2012. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," CREATES Research Papers 2012-42, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    24. Matthew S. Wilson, 2025. "Disaggregation Reverses the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 26(2), pages 643-665, November.
    25. Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "Tests for Liquidity Constraints: A Critical Survey," NBER Working Papers 1720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:97:y:1989:i:4:p:988-91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.