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Are exchange rates really free from seasonality? An exploratory analysis on monthly time series

Author

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  • Cellini, Roberto
  • Cuccia, Tiziana

Abstract

This article questions the assumption that exchange rates are non-seasonal and provides selected evidence of monthly time series of exchange rates in which significant seasonal components are present. However, the seasonal component appears to be absent in more recent data. Tentative explanations are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Cellini, Roberto & Cuccia, Tiziana, 2011. "Are exchange rates really free from seasonality? An exploratory analysis on monthly time series," MPRA Paper 30888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30888
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30888/1/MPRA_paper_30888.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May.
    2. Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1258-1279, December.
    3. Juan Angel Jimenez-Martin & Rafael Flores de Frutos, 2009. "Seasonal fluctuations and equilibrium models of exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2635-2652.
    4. English, William B & Miron, Jeffrey A & Wilcox, David W, 1989. "Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption: A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 988-991, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2014. "Seasonal processes in the Euro--US Dollar daily exchange rate," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 161-174, February.
    2. Girardin, Eric & Salimi Namin, Fatemeh, 2019. "The January effect in the foreign exchange market: Evidence for seasonal equity carry trades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-439.
    3. Williams Ohemeng & Elvis Kwame Agyapong & Kenneth Ofori-Boateng, 2021. "Exchange rate and inflation dynamics: does the month or quarter of the year matter?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-24, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Seasonality; Exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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