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Les provinces canadiennes et la convergence : une evaluation empirique

Listed author(s):
  • Mario Lefebvre

    (Bank of Canada)

Registered author(s):

    Cette etude a pour but de determiner si l'hypothese de convergence economique s'applique aux provinces canadiennes. En utilisant les donnees du produit interieur brut reel par habitant et de la productivite des facteurs de production entre 1966 et 1992, l'etude montre, a l'aide de deux methodes distinctes, que l'on ne peut rejeter cette hypothese. Ce resultat confirme les conclusions auxquelles sont parvenus d'autres auteurs qui ont examine le phenomene de la convergence entre les provinces canadiennes. La premiere methode utilisee consiste a estimer la relation qui existe entre la croissance moyenne et le niveau initial du PIB reel par habitant. Se fondant entre autres sur le probleme classique du retour a la moyenne, certains chercheurs ont reproche a cette methode de ne pas tester adequatement l'hypothese de la convergence. La deuxieme methode, quant a elle, consiste a examiner la tendance des ecarts observes entre, d'une part, le niveau du PIB reel par habitant et de la productivite dans les provinces les plus riches et, d'autre part, le niveau de chacune de ces deux variables dans les autres provinces. L'etude se distingue de celles qui ont ete realisees jusqu'ici sur le sujet par l'utilisation de la deuxieme methode, qui, en plus de contourner les critiques mentionnees ci-dessus, nous a permis d'examiner separement le comportement de chaque province.

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    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 9502001.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: 03 Feb 1995
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:9502001
    Note: 28 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. If you have trouble viewing the complete document, please print it out on a PostScript printer. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report. Bank of Canada 94-10
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    1. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Convergence and Migration among Provinces," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 324-330, April.
    2. Wirjanto, T.S. & Amano, R.A., 1993. "The Dynamic Demand for Money in Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom," Working Papers 9314, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
    3. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    4. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, "undated". "An Empirical Investigation into Government Spending and Private Sector Behaviour," Staff Working Papers 94-8, Bank of Canada.
    5. Lafrance, Robert & St-Amant, Pierre, 2000. "Les zones monétaires optimales," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(4), pages 577-612, décembre.
    6. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, "undated". "The Dynamic Behaviour of Canadian Imports and the Linear-Quadratic Model: Evidence Based on the Euler Equation," Staff Working Papers 94-6, Bank of Canada.
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