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Fluctuations de Change et Performances Economiques

  • Imed Drine
  • Christophe Rault

Ce travail a pour objet d'analyser les conséquences des variations de change sur les performances économiques. L'étude réalisé e sur un panel de pays en développement à l'aide de techniques économétriques en séries temporelles et en donné es de panel révèle d'une part, une relation de causalité du taux de change nominal vers le produit et ses différentes composantes et d'autre part un effet récessioniste de dépréciation du taux de change nominal. /This paper analyzes the consequences of exchange rate variations on economic performances. Our econometric results based on time series and panel data econometric techniques performed on a sample of developing and developed countries highlight on the one hand, a causality relationship from the nominal exchange rate to output and on the other, a downturn effect of depreciation of the nominal exchange rate.

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Article provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its journal Brussels economic review.

Volume (Year): 50 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 427-444

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Handle: RePEc:bxr:bxrceb:2013/80731
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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
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  7. Christophe Rault, 2005. "Further Results on Weak-Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models," Documents de recherche 05-12, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
  8. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
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  11. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 18-41, March.
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  14. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  15. Jacqueline Pradel & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models with Purely Exogenous Long-Run Paths," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 629-653, December.
  16. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
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