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Evidencia sobre las Desinflaciones: Experiencia Internacional

  • Carlos Humberto Cardona
  • Adriana Pontón
  • Eduardo Sarmiento
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    En el presente artículo se analizan las políticas desinflacionarias utilizadas para lograr el paso de inflación moderada a inflación de un dígito en nueve países cuya estructura es semejante a la colombiana y cuyo éxito desinflacionario ha sido sostenible. Estos son: Chile, Bolivia, Grecia, España, Portugal, Irlanda, Israel, Nueva Zelandia e Islandia. Además, para cada uno se utilizan dos criterios de análisis: Se identifica un episodio desinflacionario (según metodología de Ball) y se selecciona un año de quiebre en la inflación (según definición de los autores); así, se evalúa el comportamiento de políticas económicas durante el episodio desinflacionario, y antes y después del quiebre. Las políticas evaluadas son: control monetario, contracción de los salarios reales, disminución del déficit fiscal y revaluación del tipo de cambio. También se mide el costo de desinflar en términos del crecimiento del producto. Así mismo, se rozan aspectos de desarrollo institucional importantes en el logro de inflaciones bajas. Se compara el caso colombiano con respecto a estas políticas y se trata de responder porqué Colombia no ha logrado un dígito.

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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 102.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:102
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    1. D. Backus & J. Driffil, 1998. "Inflation and Reputation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 625, David K. Levine.
    2. Donald T. Brash, 1996. "Reducing inflation in New Zealand: some practical issues," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 123-138.
    3. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1996. "Disinflation and Taxation: The Case of Israel," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 37-46, January.
    4. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
    5. Laurence Ball, 1991. "The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 3621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1982. "Price Asynchronization and Price Level Inertia," NBER Working Papers 0900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mervyn King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? conceptual issues," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 53-91.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Disinflation: Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 4320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
    10. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
    11. S. Eijffinger & M. Van Keulen, 1995. "Central bank independence in another eleven countries," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(192), pages 39-81.
    12. Laurence Ball, 1992. "Disinflation With Imperfect Credibility," NBER Working Papers 3983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gregory D. Hess & Charles S. Morris, 1996. "The long-run costs of moderate inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 71-88.
    14. Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1991. "The Welfare Costs of Moderate Inflations," RCER Working Papers 266, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    15. José Darío Uribe, 1994. "Inflación Inercial , Tasa De Cambio Y Anclas," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002849, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    16. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1991. "Exchange rate stabilization under imperfect credibility," MPRA Paper 20486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jorge Roldos, 1994. "Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs," IMF Working Papers 94/84, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 1989. "Italy: The Real Effects of Inflation and Disinflation," Working Papers 71, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    19. Adolfo Meisel R., 1996. "Why No Hyperinflation In Colombia? On The Determinants Of Stable Economic Policies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003780, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    20. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The persistence of inflation and the cost of disinflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-16.
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