Real exchange rates and inflation in exchange-rate based stabilizations: an empirical examination
Considerable research has focused on explaining why currencies appreciate in real terms after the nominal exchange rate is stabilized, but this research generally has taken a theoretical approach, and rarely has tested its hypotheses empirically. In this paper I estimate a simple error-correction model for Mexico, based on the Salter-Swan framework, in which inflation is determined by (1) the gap between the actual real exchange rate and the exchange rate that clears the market for non-traded goods, and (2) persistence effects of past inflation. Using this model, I decompose the excess of Mexican inflation in 1988-94 over peso-adjusted international inflation rates--that is, the real appreciation of the peso--into that part attributable to the initial undervaluation of the peso, that part explained by the subsequent expansion of domestic demand, and that part attributable to inertial inflation. The results indicate that the effects of inertial inflation in appreciating the real exchange rate were quite temporary, lasting only about a year after the stabilization of the peso in 1988. Of the real appreciation that took place between 1988 and 1994, about half was attributable to the expansion of domestic demand-which appreciated the equilibrium real exchange rate in the non-tradeables sector--and about half reflected the correction of the initial undervaluation of the real exchange rate relative to its equilibrium level in the non-tradeables sector. Finally, the paper uses the model to illustrate the impact of various prospective exchange rate policies on inflation and the real exchange rate in Mexico.
|Date of creation:||1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551|
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1982. "The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 801-811, September.
- Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995.
"Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Working Papers 5197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rebelo, S. & Vegh, C.A., 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," RCER Working Papers 405, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Rebelo, Sérgio, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," CEPR Discussion Papers 1220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Uribe, Martin, 1997.
"Exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization: The initial real effects of credible plans,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 197-221, July.
- Martin Uribe, 1995. "Exchange-rate based inflation stabilization: the initial real effects of credible plans," International Finance Discussion Papers 503, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont & Guillermo Calvo, 1993.
"Stabilization Dynamics and Backward-Looking Contracts,"
IMF Working Papers
93/29, International Monetary Fund.
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1994. "Stabilization dynamics and backward-looking contracts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 59-84, February.
- de Brouwer, Gordon & Ericsson, Neil R, 1998.
"Modeling Inflation in Australia,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 433-49, October.
- Gordon De Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling inflation in Australia," International Finance Discussion Papers 530, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9510, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont, 1991.
"Stopping High Inflation; An Analytical Overview,"
IMF Working Papers
91/107, International Monetary Fund.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Disinflation: Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 4320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo Calvo & Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont, 1991. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility," IMF Working Papers 91/77, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995.
"Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," MPRA Paper 13898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jorge E. RoldÃ³s, 1995. "Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 158-183, March.
- T. W.Swan, 1960. "Economic Control In A Dependent Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 51-66, 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:554. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marlene Vikor)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.