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Are stabilization programs expansionary?

  • Federico Echenique
  • Alvaro Forteza

The empirical evidence presented in this paper casts serious doubts on the by now widely accepted "stylized facts" of the exchange rate based stabilization programs (ERBS) as they are stated in Kiguel and Liviatan (1992) and in Végh (1992). Even though the ERBS programs were associated with output booms, no evidence of booms provoked by the stabilization programs is found. Rather, exogenous capital inflows to Latin America seem to have caused both the output booms and the stabilization programs. Other stylized facts, namely that the ERBS programs cause real exchange rate appreciations and trade account deficits are not rejected by the analysis presented in this paper.

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File URL: http://decon.edu.uy/publica/1996/Doc0196.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics - dECON in its series Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) with number 0196.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ude:wpaper:0196
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  1. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Working Papers 5197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alesina, A. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," Papers 6-91, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, 07.
  4. Jorge E. Roldós, 1995. "Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 158-183, March.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
  6. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1996. "The timing of stabilizations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 257-279.
  7. Adriana Cassoni, 1996. "A bargaining model with uncertainty and varying outside opportunities," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1096, Department of Economics - dECON.
  8. Laurence Ball, 1993. "What determines the sacrifice ratio?," Working Papers 93-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Casella, Alessandra & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Can Foreign Aid Accelerate Stabilization?," CEPR Discussion Papers 961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Marcel Vaillant, 1996. "El GATT 94 y la Organización Mundial del Comercio. Una nueva agenda para Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0496, Department of Economics - dECON.
  11. Federico Echenique & Alvaro Forteza, 1996. "Are stabilization programs expansionary?," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0196, Department of Economics - dECON.
  12. Elvio Accinelli & Martín Puchet, 1996. "An application of the catastrophe theory in general equilibrium theory," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0296, Department of Economics - dECON.
  13. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  14. Fischer, Stanley, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate, and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 27-49, February.
  15. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December.
  16. Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization: The initial real effects of credible plans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 197-221, July.
  17. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1987. "Exchange Rate Management: Intertemporal Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 107-23, March.
  18. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  19. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman, 1992. "Capital Inflows to Latin America; The 1970's and the 1990's," IMF Working Papers 92/85, International Monetary Fund.
  20. repec:imf:imfpdp:9310 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries: The empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 13689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  23. Gustavo Bittencourt & Rosario Domingo, 1996. "Inversión Extranjera Directa en Uruguay: tendencias y determinantes," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0696, Department of Economics - dECON.
  24. Robert J. Gordon, 1982. "Why Stopping Inflation May Be Costly: Evidence from Fourteen Historical Episodes," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 11-40 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Stanley Fischer, 1984. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Michael Bruno & Guido Di Tella & Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Inflation Stabilization: The Experience of Israel, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Mexico," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022796, June.
  27. Alejandro Nin & María Inés Terra, 1996. "Mercosur: un camino a la apertura o la consolidación de un bloque cerrado?," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0996, Department of Economics - dECON.
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