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Professional forecasters and the real-time forecasting performance of an estimated new keynesian model for the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Smets, Frank
  • Warne, Anders
  • Wouters, Raf

Abstract

This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets, and Wouters (2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting performance. We consider two approaches for conditioning on such information. Under the “noise” approach, the mean professional forecasts are assumed to be noisy indicators of the rational expectations forecasts implied by the DSGE model. Under the “news” approach, it is assumed that the forecasts reveal the presence of expected future structural shocks in line with those estimated over the past. The forecasts of the DSGE model are compared with those from a Bayesian VAR model and a random walk. JEL Classification: E24, E31, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Smets, Frank & Warne, Anders & Wouters, Raf, 2013. "Professional forecasters and the real-time forecasting performance of an estimated new keynesian model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1571, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131571
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Günter Coenen & Anders Warne, 2014. "Risks to Price Stability, the Zero Lower Bound, and Forward Guidance: A Real-Time Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 7-54, June.
    2. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    3. Carlos Bowles & Roberta Friz & Veronique Genre & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Tuomas Rautanen, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
    4. Domenico Giannone & Jérôme Henry & Magdalena Lalik & Michele Modugno, 2012. "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1000-1013, November.
    5. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
    6. Negro, Marco Del & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    7. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
    8. Christoffel, Kai & Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
    9. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-266, January.
    10. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
    11. John F. Henry & L. Randall Wray, 1998. "Economic Time," Macroeconomics 9811004, EconWPA.
    12. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    13. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2013. "Predictive likelihood comparisons with DSGE and DSGE-VAR models," Working Paper Series 1536, European Central Bank.
    14. Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2013. "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 108-121.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.
    2. Fritz Breuss, 2016. "Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?," WIFO Working Papers 530, WIFO.
    3. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "Examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area: Evidence from a mixed cross-section global VAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 195-215.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian methods; DSGE model; estimated New Keynesian model; macroeconomic forecasting; real-time data; survey data;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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