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Labour Market and Monetary Policy in South Africa

Author

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  • Nicola Viegi

Abstract

This paper analyses the influence of the South African labour market on the conduct of monetary policy. Because of the weak response of wages to changes in employment, the South African Reserve Bank is confronted by an unfavourable short run unemployment-inflation trade off that complicates the implementation of the inflation targeting framework. First we provide some reduced form evidence by estimating a form of the traditional wage Phillips curve, showing the weak relationship between wage dynamics and unemployment in South Africa. We then confirm this result by presenting an estimation of a structural model of the South African economy and give a quantitative assessment of the constraint imposed by the labour market on monetary policy. Finally we interpret these results in a strategic framework, analysing the role that inflation targeting might play in either improving coordination, or worsening the interaction between trade unions and Central Bank objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Viegi, 2015. "Labour Market and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 6607, South African Reserve Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbz:wpaper:6607
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Ken Miyajima & James Yetman, 2018. "Inflation Expectations Anchoring Across Different Types of Agents: the Case of South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2018/177, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Chris Loewald & Konstantin Makrelov, 2020. "Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 2001 The impact of inflation on the poor June 2020," Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 10005, South African Reserve Bank.
    3. Tumisang Loate & Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Sailing into the Wind evaluating the near future of Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 11006, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Ken Miyajima & James Yetman, 2019. "Assessing inflation expectations anchoring for heterogeneous agents: analysts, businesses and trade unions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(41), pages 4499-4515, September.
    6. Shannon Bold & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Identifying monetary policy rules in South Africa with inflation expectations and unemployment," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Erten, Bilge & Leight, Jessica & Tregenna, Fiona, 2019. "Trade liberalization and local labor market adjustment in South Africa," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 448-467.
    8. Laurence Harris & Shannon Bold, 2018. "Identifying monetary policy rules in South Africa with inflation expectations and unemployment," WIDER Working Paper Series 43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Andrew Kerr, 2018. "Job Flows, Worker Flows and Churning in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(S1), pages 141-166, January.
    10. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Ntsakeseni Letitia Lebese, 2019. "Rethinking The Current Inflation Target Range In South Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 53(2), pages 13-27, April-Jun.
    11. Andrew Kerr, 2018. "Job Flows, Worker Flows and Churning in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(S1), pages 141-166, January.
    12. Christopher Loewald & Nic Spearman Andreas Wrgtter, 2023. "Less sacrifice from collective to competitive price coordination in the South African economy," Working Papers 11049, South African Reserve Bank.
    13. Christopher Loewald & David Faulkner & Konstantin Makrelov, 2020. "Time consistency and economic growth a case study of south african macroeconomic policy," Working Papers 10421, South African Reserve Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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