IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/reorpe/v52y2020i1p50-76.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Danger of a “Geyser Disease†Effect: Structural Fragility of the Tourism-Led Recovery in Iceland

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Macheda
  • Roberto Nadalini

Abstract

The fall of the Icelandic economy in 2008 highlighted the destructive effects of unbridled markets. Yet, in recent years Iceland’s annual growth rates have been significantly higher than those of the overwhelming majority of advanced capitalist countries. The aim of this article is to delve into the fragile foundations that the current Icelandic economic boom rests on. We argue that the impressive appreciation of the Icelandic króna, triggered by the rapid expansion of tourism, has made the rapid absorption of unemployment compatible with price stability during the recovery period. By restricting sources of international competitiveness, however, this tourism-led recovery strategy will render the current level of unemployment and real wages inconsistent with internal and external equilibrium in the long run. JEL classification : E24, F31, J24, O33, B51

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Macheda & Roberto Nadalini, 2020. "The Danger of a “Geyser Disease†Effect: Structural Fragility of the Tourism-Led Recovery in Iceland," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 50-76, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:reorpe:v:52:y:2020:i:1:p:50-76
    DOI: 10.1177/0486613419867415
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0486613419867415
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0486613419867415?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
    2. G. M.P. Swann, 2009. "The Economics of Innovation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13211.
    3. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    4. Reinert, Erik S., 1995. "Competitiveness and its predecessors--a 500-year cross-national perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 23-42, March.
    5. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    6. Anwar Shaikh, 1999. "Real Exchange Rates and the International Mobility of Capital," Macroeconomics 9904002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Eswar S. Prasad, 2015. "The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 10182-2.
    8. Paulo Gala, 2008. "Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(2), pages 273-288, March.
    9. -, 2012. "Structural change for equality: an integrated approach to development. Thirty-four session of ECLAC. Summary," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 13535 edited by Eclac.
    10. Ping Hua, 2007. "Real exchange rate and manufacturing employment in China," Post-Print hal-00159151, HAL.
    11. Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar, 2014. "The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262525429, April.
    12. An, Galina & Iyigun, Murat F., 2004. "The export technology content, learning by doing and specialization in foreign trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 465-483, December.
    13. Blyth, Mark, 2013. "Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199828302.
    14. Ágeir Daníelsson & Lúdvík Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Björn A. Hauksson & Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp32, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    15. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Jósef Sigurdsson, 2013. "How "Natural" is the Natural Rate? Unemployment Hysteresis in Iceland," Economics wp64, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    16. Silla Sigurgeirsd�ttir & Robert H. Wade, 2015. "From control by capital to control of capital: Iceland's boom and bust, and the IMF's unorthodox rescue package," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 103-133, February.
    17. Javier Capó Parrilla & Antoni Riera Font & Jaume Rosselló Nadal, 2005. "Dutch Disease in Tourism Economies. Evidence from Spain," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2005/01, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra"), revised Jan 2005.
    18. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    19. Zhu, Shujin & Fu, Xiaolan, 2013. "Drivers of Export Upgrading," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 221-233.
    20. Erling Røed Larsen, 2006. "Escaping the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease?," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 605-640, July.
    21. Lall, Sanjaya & Weiss, John & Zhang, Jinkang, 2006. "The "sophistication" of exports: A new trade measure," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 222-237, February.
    22. Sanjaya Lall, 2000. "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-98," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 337-369.
    23. Mario Cimoli & Jorge Katz, 2003. "Structural reforms, technological gaps and economic development: a Latin American perspective," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 12(2), pages 387-411, April.
    24. Hua, Ping, 2007. "Real exchange rate and manufacturing employment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 335-353.
    25. Amsden, Alice H., 2004. "Import substitution in high-tech industries: Prebisch lives in Asia!," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    26. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile, 2009. "Sources of learning paths and technological capabilities: an introductory roadmap of development processes," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 675-694.
    27. repec:bla:pacecr:v:8:y:2003:i:3:p:245-258 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Raphael Kaplinsky & Amelia U. Santos-Paulino, 2006. "A disaggregated analysis of EU imports: the implications for the study of patterns of trade and technology," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 30(4), pages 587-611, July.
    29. Douglas Sutherland & Jane Stacey, 2017. "Sustaining nature-based tourism in Iceland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1422, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Macheda & Roberto Nadalini, 2022. "China’s Escape from the Peripheral Condition: A Success Story?," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 59-82, March.
    2. Francesco Macheda & Roberto Nadalini, 2019. "The Danger of a “Geyser Disease” Effect: Structural Fragility of the Tourism-Led Recovery in Iceland," Working Papers 0038, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    3. Cimoli, Mario & Fleitas, Sebastian & Porcile, Gabriel, 2011. "Real Exchange Rate and the Structure of Exports," MPRA Paper 37846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Verónica Robert & Gabriel Yoguel, 2011. "The Complex Dynamics of Economic Development," Chapters, in: Cristiano Antonelli (ed.), Handbook on the Economic Complexity of Technological Change, chapter 17, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Cimoli, Mario & Porcile, Gabriel, 2017. "Micro-macro interactions, growth and income distribution revisited," Desarrollo Productivo 41854, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Porcile, Gabriel & de Souza, Alexandre Gomes & Viana, Ricardo, 2011. "External debt sustainability and policy rules in a small globalized economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 269-276, September.
    7. Mario Cimoli & Wellington Pereira & Gabriel Porcile & Fábio Scatolin, 2011. "Structural change, technology, and economic growth: Brazil and the CIBS in a comparative perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 25-47, April.
    8. Marañon, Matias & Kumral, Mustafa, 2021. "Empirical analysis of Chile's copper boom and the Dutch Disease through causality and cointegration tests," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Alje van Dam & Koen Frenken, 2019. "Variety, Complexity and Economic Development," Papers 1903.07997, arXiv.org.
    10. Vu, Trung V., 2020. "Economic complexity and health outcomes: A global perspective," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    11. Poncet, Sandra & Starosta de Waldemar, Felipe, 2013. "Export Upgrading and Growth: The Prerequisite of Domestic Embeddedness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 104-118.
    12. Li, Changqing & Lu, Jian, 2018. "R&D, financing constraints and export green-sophistication in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 234-244.
    13. Hartmann, Dominik & Guevara, Miguel R. & Jara-Figueroa, Cristian & Aristarán, Manuel & Hidalgo, César A., 2017. "Linking Economic Complexity, Institutions, and Income Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 75-93.
    14. Campi, Mercedes & Dueñas, Marco & Fagiolo, Giorgio, 2021. "Specialization in food production affects global food security and food systems sustainability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Francesco Macheda, 2022. "Industrial Policies and State-Owned Enterprises: The Foundations of China’s Path Towards Decarbonization," L'industria, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 4, pages 581-619.
    16. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    17. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
    18. Cem Çağrı Dönmez & Abdulkadir Atalan, 2019. "Developing Statistical Optimization Models for Urban Competitiveness Index: Under the Boundaries of Econophysics Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-11, November.
    19. Vivarelli, Marco, 2018. "Globalisation, structural change and innovation in emerging economies: The impact on employment and skills," MERIT Working Papers 2018-037, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    20. Sandra Poncet & Felipe Starosta, 2013. "Export upgrading and growth in China: the prerequisite of domestic embeddedness," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00960684, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural rate; wage; real exchange rate; high skilled; Marxian;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:reorpe:v:52:y:2020:i:1:p:50-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.urpe.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.