IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/fosoec/v54y2025i3p354-382.html

China’s Road towards Decarbonization: Unrealistic Promise or a Credible Commitment?

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Macheda

Abstract

This article argues that in low- and middle-income countries, market forces alone are structurally inadequate to spark the rapid development of renewable energy resources and initiate the replacement of obsolete technologies with cleaner technologies. Using the theoretical perspective of new structural economics as a point of departure, the examination of system-level constraints to the transformation of renewable energy reveals that active state participation in the energy sector can, on the one hand, play a key role in limiting fossil fuel consumption and, on the other, accelerate the development of renewable energy technologies. Analysis of the structural characteristics that underlie the gradual deceleration of fossil fuel extraction and the acceleration of renewable energy deployment suggests that China has laid the necessary prerequisites to reconcile policy objectives of promoting energy transformation and ensuring long-term economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Macheda, 2025. "China’s Road towards Decarbonization: Unrealistic Promise or a Credible Commitment?," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 354-382, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:fosoec:v:54:y:2025:i:3:p:354-382
    DOI: 10.1080/07360932.2023.2298435
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/07360932.2023.2298435
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/07360932.2023.2298435?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, 2021. "Back to Basics: Basic Research Spillovers, Innovation Policy, and Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 1-43.
    2. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
    3. Krueger, Anne O & Tuncer, Baran, 1982. "An Empirical Test of the Infant Industry Argument," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1142-1152, December.
    4. Zhou, Fengxiu & Wang, Xiaoyu, 2022. "The carbon emissions trading scheme and green technology innovation in China: A new structural economics perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 365-381.
    5. Przemyslaw Kowalski & Max Büge & Monika Sztajerowska & Matias Egeland, 2013. "State-Owned Enterprises: Trade Effects and Policy Implications," OECD Trade Policy Papers 147, OECD Publishing.
    6. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    7. Massimo Florio, 2014. "Contemporary public enterprises: innovation, accountability, governance," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 201-208, July.
    8. Rothman, Dale S., 1998. "Environmental Kuznets curves--real progress or passing the buck?: A case for consumption-based approaches," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 177-194, May.
    9. Liu, Chang & Liu, Linlin & Zhang, Dayong & Fu, Jiasha, 2021. "How does the capital market respond to policy shocks? Evidence from listed solar photovoltaic companies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Roller, Lars-Hendrik & Zhang, Zhentang, 2005. "Bundling of social and private goods and the soft budget constraint problem," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 47-58, March.
    11. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    12. Lin, Justin Yifu & Monga, Celestin, 2011. "Growth identification and facilitation : the role of the state in the dynamics of structural change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5313, The World Bank.
    13. A. Greening, Lorna & Greene, David L. & Difiglio, Carmen, 2000. "Energy efficiency and consumption -- the rebound effect -- a survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 389-401, June.
    14. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
    15. Hanley, Nick & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2009. "Do increases in energy efficiency improve environmental quality and sustainability?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 692-709, January.
    16. Wu, Ting & Yang, Shuwang & Tan, Jingjing, 2020. "Impacts of government R&D subsidies on venture capital and renewable energy investment -- an empirical study in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Tian, Xuan & Xu, Yan, 2014. "Financial development and innovation: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 116-135.
    18. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, March.
    19. Ryna Yiyun Cui & Nathan Hultman & Diyang Cui & Haewon McJeon & Sha Yu & Morgan R. Edwards & Arijit Sen & Kaihui Song & Christina Bowman & Leon Clarke & Junjie Kang & Jiehong Lou & Fuqiang Yang & Jiaha, 2021. "A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    20. Ang, James B., 2007. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4772-4778, October.
    21. Karp, Larry S. & Stevenson, Megan, "undated". "Green industrial policy: trade and theory," CUDARE Working Papers 123637, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    22. Xu, Shaofeng & Chen, Wenying, 2006. "The reform of electricity power sector in the PR of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(16), pages 2455-2465, November.
    23. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 17-45, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Ghisetti, Claudia & Quatraro, Francesco, 2017. "Green Technologies and Environmental Productivity: A Cross-sectoral Analysis of Direct and Indirect Effects in Italian Regions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-13.
    25. Cohen, Wesley M & Levinthal, Daniel A, 1989. "Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 569-596, September.
    26. Choi, Suk Bong & Lee, Soo Hee & Williams, Christopher, 2011. "Ownership and firm innovation in a transition economy: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 441-452, April.
    27. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    28. Luo, Guoliang & Liu, Yingxuan & Zhang, Liping & Xu, Xuan & Guo, Yiwei, 2021. "Do governmental subsidies improve the financial performance of China’s new energy power generation enterprises?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    29. Maximilian Auffhammer & Min Wang & Lunyu Xie & Jintao Xu, 2021. "Renewable Electricity Development in China: Policies, Performance, and Challenges," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 323-339.
    30. Heltberg, Rasmus, 2004. "Fuel switching: evidence from eight developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 869-887, September.
    31. Arrow, Kenneth & Bolin, Bert & Costanza, Robert & Dasgupta, Partha & Folke, Carl & Holling, C.S. & Jansson, Bengt-Owe & Levin, Simon & Mäler, Karl-Göran & Perrings, Charles & Pimentel, David, 1996. "Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 104-110, February.
    32. John A. Mathews & Hao Tan, 2014. "Economics: Manufacture renewables to build energy security," Nature, Nature, vol. 513(7517), pages 166-168, September.
    33. Nathalie Lazaric & Kevin Maréchal, 2010. "Overcoming inertia: insights from evolutionary economics into improved energy and climate policy," Post-Print hal-00452205, HAL.
    34. Costanza, Robert, 1995. "Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 89-90, November.
    35. Shen, Jim Huangnan & Zhang, Jun & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Weiping, 2020. "Toward an internal governance structure of China’s large SOEs," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    36. Wei, Taoyuan & Liu, Yang, 2017. "Estimation of global rebound effect caused by energy efficiency improvement," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 27-34.
    37. Reinert, Erik S., 1995. "Competitiveness and its predecessors--a 500-year cross-national perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 23-42, March.
    38. Justin Yifu Lin, 2011. "New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 193-221, August.
    39. Unruh, Gregory C. & Carrillo-Hermosilla, Javier, 2006. "Globalizing carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1185-1197, July.
    40. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2010. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7850-7860, December.
    41. Yu, Chin-Hsien & Wu, Xiuqin & Zhang, Dayong & Chen, Shi & Zhao, Jinsong, 2021. "Demand for green finance: Resolving financing constraints on green innovation in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    42. Lin, Justin Yifu, 2021. "State-owned enterprise reform in China: The new structural economics perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 106-111.
    43. Johan Rockström & Will Steffen & Kevin Noone & Åsa Persson & F. Stuart Chapin & Eric F. Lambin & Timothy M. Lenton & Marten Scheffer & Carl Folke & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber & Björn Nykvist & Cynthia , 2009. "A safe operating space for humanity," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7263), pages 472-475, September.
    44. Ang, James S. & Ding, David K., 2006. "Government ownership and the performance of government-linked companies: The case of Singapore," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 64-88, February.
    45. Jonathan A. Patz & Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum & Tracey Holloway & Jonathan A. Foley, 2005. "Impact of regional climate change on human health," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 310-317, November.
    46. Tsang, Eric W.K. & Yip, Paul S.L. & Toh, Mun Heng, 2008. "The impact of R&D on value added for domestic and foreign firms in a newly industrialized economy," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 423-441, August.
    47. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    48. Rodrik, Dani, 2004. "Industrial Policy for the Twenty-First Century," Working Paper Series rwp04-047, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    49. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    50. Ang, James B., 2008. "Economic development, pollutant emissions and energy consumption in Malaysia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 271-278.
    51. Mario Cimoli & Jorge Katz, 2003. "Structural reforms, technological gaps and economic development: a Latin American perspective," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 12(2), pages 387-411, April.
    52. Dirk Willem te Velde & Justin Lin & Célestin Monga & Suresh D. Tendulkar & Alice Amsden & K. Y. Amoako & Howard Pack & Wonhyuk Lim, 2011. "DPR Debate: Growth Identification and Facilitation: The Role of the State in the Dynamics of Structural Change," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 29(3), pages 259-310, May.
    53. Kevin Marechal & Nathalie Lazaric, 2010. "Overcoming inertia: insights from evolutionary economics into improved energy and climate policies," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 103-119, January.
    54. Zhang, Ruixiaoxiao & Shimada, Koji & Ni, Meng & Shen, Geoffrey Q.P. & Wong, Johnny K.W., 2020. "Low or No subsidy? Proposing a regional power grid based wind power feed-in tariff benchmark price mechanism in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    55. Burke, Paul J., 2013. "The national-level energy ladder and its carbon implications," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 484-503, August.
    56. Leach, Gerald, 1992. "The energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 116-123, February.
    57. Todorova, Tamara, 2011. "The State as an Instrument of Transaction-Cost Economies," MPRA Paper 117878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    58. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2004. "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 431-455, August.
    59. Amsden, Alice H., 2004. "Import substitution in high-tech industries: Prebisch lives in Asia!," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    60. Ruttan, Vernon W, 1997. "Induced Innovation, Evolutionary Theory and Path Dependence:," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1520-1529, September.
    61. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T., 2007. "Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 482-489, May.
    62. Raphael Kaplinsky & Amelia U. Santos-Paulino, 2006. "A disaggregated analysis of EU imports: the implications for the study of patterns of trade and technology," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 30(4), pages 587-611, July.
    63. Yang, Lisha & Ni, Mengying, 2022. "Is financial development beneficial to improve the efficiency of green development? Evidence from the “Belt and Road” countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Macheda, 2022. "Industrial Policies and State-Owned Enterprises: The Foundations of China’s Path Towards Decarbonization," L'industria, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 4, pages 581-619.
    2. Kaika, Dimitra & Zervas, Efthimios, 2013. "The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory. Part B: Critical issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1403-1411.
    3. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 2014. "Bounds testing approach to analysis of the environment Kuznets curve hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 47-62.
    4. Francesco Macheda & Roberto Nadalini, 2022. "China’s Escape from the Peripheral Condition: A Success Story?," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 59-82, March.
    5. Lars Sorge & Anne Neumann, 2017. "The Nexus of CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Trade-Openness in WTO Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1699, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sato, João Ricardo, 2015. "On the relationships between CO2 emissions, energy consumption and income: The importance of time variation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 629-638.
    7. Lotfalipour, Mohammad Reza & Falahi, Mohammad Ali & Ashena, Malihe, 2010. "Economic growth, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuels consumption in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5115-5120.
    8. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Roubaud, David & Farhani, Sahbi, 2018. "How economic growth, renewable electricity and natural resources contribute to CO2 emissions?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 356-367.
    9. Justin Yifu Lin, 2013. "New structural economics: the third wave of development thinking," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 27(2), pages 1-13, November.
    10. Nepal, Rabindra & Paija, Nirash, 2019. "A multivariate time series analysis of energy consumption, real output and pollutant emissions in a developing economy: New evidence from Nepal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 164-173.
    11. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    12. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    13. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Pakistan: Cointegration and Granger causality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2947-2953.
    14. Saboori, Behnaz & Sulaiman, Jamalludin, 2013. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries: A cointegration approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 813-822.
    15. Ozcan, Burcu, 2013. "The nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Middle East countries: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1138-1147.
    16. Saboori, Behnaz & Sulaiman, Jamalludin, 2013. "Environmental degradation, economic growth and energy consumption: Evidence of the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 892-905.
    17. Bölük, Gülden & Mert, Mehmet, 2015. "The renewable energy, growth and environmental Kuznets curve in Turkey: An ARDL approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 587-595.
    18. Arvesen, Anders & Bright, Ryan M. & Hertwich, Edgar G., 2011. "Considering only first-order effects? How simplifications lead to unrealistic technology optimism in climate change mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7448-7454.
    19. Karimkashi, Shervin & Amidpour, Majid, 2012. "Total site energy improvement using R-curve concept," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 329-340.
    20. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:fosoec:v:54:y:2025:i:3:p:354-382. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RFSE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.