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Forecasting for the Russian Economy Using Small-Scale DSGE Models

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitry Kreptsev

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Sergei Seleznev

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

This study examines the ability of a small-scale DSGE model to forecast the dynamics of key macroeconomic variables for the Russian economy. The study uses two versions of a standard model of a small open economy, adding a stochastic oil price trend under various assumptions about exchange rate policy. Comparison with the same size BVAR model shows DSGE models to be superior as regards exchange rate, price and interest rate forecasting and slightly inferior with respect to GDP forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Kreptsev & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Forecasting for the Russian Economy Using Small-Scale DSGE Models," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(2), pages 51-67, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:77:y:2018:i:2:p:51-67
    DOI: 10.31477/rjmf.201802.51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Artur Sharafutdinov, 2023. "Forecasting Russian GDP, Inflation, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Using DSGE-VAR Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(3), pages 62-86, September.
    4. Dementiev, V., 2023. "Updating the technological base of the economy and real interest rates," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 104-119.
    5. Bünyamin Fuat Yıldız & Korhan K. Gökmenoğlu & Wing-Keung Wong, 2022. "Analysing Monetary Policy Shocks by Sign and Parametric Restrictions: The Evidence from Russia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Votinov, A., 2022. "The effects of additional non-stationary processes on the properties of DSGE-models," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 28-43.
    7. V. I. Baluta & D. N. Shul’ts & P. A. Lavrinenko, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Global Hydrocarbon Prices on the Russian Economy Based on the DSGE Model with Capital-Owning Firms," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 107-117, February.
    8. Mikhail Andreyev & Mikhail Andreyev & Mikhail Andreyev, 2020. "Adding a fiscal rule into a DSGE model: How much does it change the forecasts?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps64, Bank of Russia.
    9. Daniil Lomonosov, 2023. "Shocks of Business Activity and Specific Shocks to Oil Market in DSGE Model of Russian Economy and Their Influence Under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(4), pages 44-79, December.
    10. Henry Penikas, 2023. "Smoothing the Key Rate Pass-Through: What to Keep in Mind When Interpreting Econometric Estimates," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(3), pages 3-34, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonstationary DSGE; BVAR; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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