IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nea/journl/y2023i60p104-119.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Updating the technological base of the economy and real interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Dementiev, V.

    (Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The article substantiates that the impact of real interest rates on the economy depends on what stage of technological development it is at. A conceptual model of technological changes is proposed, it allows using borrowed capital as a means of accelerated renewal of the technological base of production. The main statements are explained with calculations based on this discrete model, in which successive phases of technological development of the economic system are highlighted. At the stage of active development of new general purpose technologies, increased investment in these technologies can be combined with an increase in interest rates. Attention is drawn to the fact that the policy of low interest rates is not able to compensate for the exhaustion of the possibilities of old general purpose technologies, when the new ones do not yet provide a radical renewal of the technological base of production. The trajectories obtained from the model calculations are compared with the evolution of the real interest rate and the share of private non-residential investments in the US GDP in the period 1961-2021. The dynamics of the indicators under consideration shows that when structural shifts in production are on the agenda, a differentiated approach to individual parts of the economy is required as part of economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dementiev, V., 2023. "Updating the technological base of the economy and real interest rates," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 104-119.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2023:i:60:p:104-119
    DOI: 10.31737/22212264_2023_3_104-119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econorus.org/repec/journl/2023-60-104-119r.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31737/22212264_2023_3_104-119?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baldi, Guido & Lange, Alexander, 2019. "The Interest Rate Sensitivity of Investment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 173-190.
    2. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
    4. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    5. Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Benjamin Moll, 2014. "Knowledge Growth and the Allocation of Time," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(1), pages 1-51.
    6. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1972. "Money, Debt, and Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(5), pages 951-977, Sept.-Oct.
    7. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103.
    8. Dmitry Kreptsev & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Forecasting for the Russian Economy Using Small-Scale DSGE Models," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(2), pages 51-67, June.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    10. Jonathan Hambur & Gianni La Cava, 2018. "Do Interest Rates Affect Business Investment? Evidence from Australian Company-level Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. V. Polterovich, 2009. "The Innovation Pause Hypothesis and the Strategy of Modernization," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 6.
    12. Guiseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 223-246.
    13. Baldi, Guido & Lange, Alexander, 2019. "The Interest Rate Sensitivity of Investment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 173-190.
    14. Jordi Galí, 2018. "The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 87-112, Summer.
    15. Vladimir I. Mayevsky & Sergey Yu. Malkov & Alexander A. Rubinstein, 2019. "Analysis of the relationship between issuing money, inflation and economic growth with the help of the SMR-model," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 8.
    16. V. Polterovich., 2009. "The Innovation Pause Hypothesis and the Strategy of Modernization," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 6.
    17. Alessandro Vercelli, 1999. "The evolution of IS-LM models: empirical evidence and theoretical presuppositions," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 199-219.
    18. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    2. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    3. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    4. Rupert, Peter & Šustek, Roman, 2019. "On the mechanics of New-Keynesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 53-69.
    5. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2010. "DSGE Model Validation in a Bayesian Framework: an Assessment," MPRA Paper 24509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Oleg Kryzhanovsky & Alexander Zykov, 2022. "DEMUR: A Regional Semi-Structural Model of the Ural Macroregion," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(4), pages 52-85, December.
    7. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2014. "Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 298-323.
    8. Francesco Sergi, 2020. "The Standard Narrative about DSGE Models in Central Banks’ Technical Reports," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 163-193, March.
    9. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    10. Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2012. "Not Going Away? Microfoundations in the Making of a New Consensus in Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Microfoundations Reconsidered, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Francesco Sergi, 2015. "L'histoire (faussement) naïve des modèles DSGE," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15066, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    12. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    13. Leon Podkaminer, 2021. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: macroeconomics at a dead end," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 97-122.
    14. Jun, Bogang & Kim, Tai-Yoo, 2015. "A neo-Schumpeterian perspective on the analytical macroeconomic framework: The expanded reproduction system," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2015, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    15. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
    16. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Introduction," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework and Its Applications Second edition, volume 1, Princeton University Press.
    17. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
    18. Francesco Sergi, 2015. "L'histoire (faussement) naïve des modèles DSGE," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01222798, HAL.
    19. Nuno Barrau, Galo, 2008. "Schumpeterian Foundations of Real Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 9430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; technological development; investments; real interest rate; research and development; IS-LM model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2023:i:60:p:104-119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alexey Tcharykov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nearuea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.