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How to Maximize the Likelihood Function for a DSGE Model

  • Martin Andreasen

    ()

This paper extends two optimization routines to deal with objective functions for DSGE models. The optimization routines are i) a version of Simulated Annealing developed by Corana, Marchesi & Ridella (1987), and ii) the evolutionary algorithm CMA-ES developed by Hansen, Müller & Koumoutsakos (2003). Following these extensions, we examine the ability of the two routines to maximize the likelihood function for a sequence of test economies. Our results show that the CMA-ES routine clearly outperforms Simulated Annealing in its ability to find the global optimum and in efficiency. With 10 unknown structural parameters in the likelihood function, the CMA-ES routine finds the global optimum in 95% of our test economies compared to 89% for Simulated Annealing. When the number of unknown structural parameters in the likelihood function increases to 20 and 35, then the CMA-ES routine finds the global optimum in 85% and 71% of our test economies, respectively. The corresponding numbers for Simulated Annealing are 70% and 0%.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10614-009-9182-6
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Article provided by Society for Computational Economics in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 127-154

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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:35:y:2010:i:2:p:127-154
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  1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0722, European Central Bank.
  4. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2005. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 11034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-41, June.
  6. Jes�s Fern�ndez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ram�rez, 2007. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1059-1087.
  7. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
  8. Martin Møller Andreasen, 2008. "Ensuring the Validity of the Micro Foundation in DSGE Models," CREATES Research Papers 2008-26, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  9. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
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