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Non-linear DSGE Models and The Optimized Particle Filter

Author

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  • Martin M. Andreasen

    () (Bank of England and CREATES)

Abstract

This paper improves the accuracy and speed of particle filtering for non-linear DSGE models with potentially non-normal shocks. This is done by introducing a new proposal distribution which i) incorporates information from new observables and ii) has a small optimization step that minimizes the distance to the optimal proposal distribution. A particle filter with this proposal distribution is shown to deliver a high level of accuracy even with elatively few particles, and this filter is therefore much more efficient than the standard particle filter.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin M. Andreasen, 2010. "Non-linear DSGE Models and The Optimized Particle Filter," CREATES Research Papers 2010-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2010-05
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    File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/creates/rp/10/rp10_05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amisano, Gianni & Tristani, Oreste, 2010. "Euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 1837-1858.
    2. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1059-1087.
    3. Christopher A. Sims & Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Kim, 2003. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solution of Discrete Time Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 162, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Flury, Thomas & Shephard, Neil, 2011. "Bayesian Inference Based Only On Simulated Likelihood: Particle Filter Analysis Of Dynamic Economic Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(05), pages 933-956, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreasen, Martin & Meldrum, Andrew, 2013. "Likelihood inference in non-linear term structure models: the importance of the lower bound," Bank of England working papers 481, Bank of England.
    2. Matthew Smith, 2012. "Estimating Nonlinear Economic Models Using Surrogate Transitions," 2012 Meeting Papers 494, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Likelihood inference; Non-linear DSGE models; Non-normal shocks; Particle filtering;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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