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An estimated DSGE model of energy, costs and inflation in the United Kingdom

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  • Millard, Stephen

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

In this paper, I estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the United Kingdom. The basic building blocks of the model are standard in the literature. The main complication is that there are three consumption goods: non-energy output, petrol and utilities; given relative prices and their overall wealth, consumers choose how much of each of these goods to consume in order to maximise their utility. Each of the consumption goods is produced according to a sector-specific production function and sticky prices in each sector imply sector-specific New Keynesian Phillips Curves. I show how this model, once estimated, could form a useful additional input within a policymaker’s ‘suite of models’ by considering its implications for the responses of various macroeconomic variables to different economic shocks and by decomposing recent movements of energy and non-energy output and inflation into the proportions caused by each of the shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Millard, Stephen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model of energy, costs and inflation in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 432, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0432
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    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2011/an-estimated-dsge-model-of-energy-costs-and-inflation-in-the-uk.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2007. "An estimated DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 215-232.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 346-353, May.
    3. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-577, November.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Harrison, Richard & Oomen, Özlem, 2010. "Evaluating and estimating a DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 380, Bank of England.
    6. Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
    7. Harrison, Richard & Thomas, Ryland & de Weymarn, Iain, 2011. "The impact of permanent energy price shocks on the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 433, Bank of England.
    8. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August.
    9. Günes Kamber & Stephen Millard, 2012. "Using Estimated Models to Assess Nominal and Real Rigidities in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 97-119, December.
    10. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    12. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2008. "Energy Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Consumer Durables," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1357-1377, October.
    13. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
    14. Greenslade, Jennifer & Parker, Miles, 2010. "New insights into price-setting behaviour in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 395, Bank of England.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aurelijus Dabusinskas & István Kónya & Stephen Millard, 2015. "How does labour market structure affect the response of economies to shocks?," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1516, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    2. Zubarev, Andrey V. & Polbin, Andrey V., 2016. "Estimation of Macroeconomic Effects from the Decline in Oil Export Duty," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 8-35, December.
    3. Dixon, Huw & Franklin, Jeremy & Millard, Stephen, 2014. "Sectoral shocks and monetary policy in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 499, Bank of England.
    4. repec:eee:eneeco:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:14-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
    6. repec:aen:journl:ej38-si1-argentiero is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Zubarev, Andrey & Polbin, Andrey, 2017. "Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Reducing the Export Duty on Oil on the Russian Economy within the Framework of the General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 051734, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    8. Bhattarai, Keshab & Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid, 2017. "Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy shocks in the UK: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 321-338.
    9. Harrison, Richard & Thomas, Ryland & de Weymarn, Iain, 2011. "The impact of permanent energy price shocks on the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 433, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Energy prices and inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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