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Sectoral shocks and monetary policy in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Dixon, Huw

    () (Cardiff Business School)

  • Franklin, Jeremy

    () (Bank of England)

  • Millard, Stephen

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

In this paper, we use an open economy model of the United Kingdom to examine the extent to which monetary policy should respond to movements in sectoral inflation rates. To do this we construct a Generalised Taylor model that takes specific account of the sectoral make up of the consumer price index (CPI), where the sectors are based on the COICOP classification the UK CPI microdata. We calibrate the model for each sector using the UK CPI microdata and model the sectoral shocks that drive sectoral inflation rates as white noise processes, as in the UK data. We find that a policy rule that allows for different responses to inflation in different sectors outperforms a rule which just targets aggregate CPI. However, the gain is small and comes from partially looking through movements in aggregate inflation driven by movements in petrol price inflation, which is volatile and tends not to reflect underlying inflationary pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon, Huw & Franklin, Jeremy & Millard, Stephen, 2014. "Sectoral shocks and monetary policy in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 499, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0499
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huw Dixon & Hervé Le Bihan, 2012. "Generalised Taylor and Generalised Calvo Price and Wage Setting: Micro‐evidence with Macro Implications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(560), pages 532-554, May.
    2. Kara, Engin, 2010. "Optimal monetary policy in the generalized Taylor economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2023-2037, October.
    3. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    4. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 350-384, March.
    5. Catão, Luis A.V. & Chang, Roberto, 2015. "World food prices and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 69-88.
    6. Stefano Eusepi & Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "CONDI: A Cost-of-Nominal-Distortions Index," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 53-91, July.
    7. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2009. "What lies beneath: what can disaggregated data tell us about the behaviour of prices?," Bank of England working papers 364, Bank of England.
    8. Huw Dixon & Engin Kara, 2010. "Can We Explain Inflation Persistence in a Way that Is Consistent with the Microevidence on Nominal Rigidity?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 151-170, February.
    9. Philip Bunn & Colin Ellis, 2012. "Examining The Behaviour Of Individual UK Consumer Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(558), pages 35-55, February.
    10. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    11. repec:ecj:econjl:v:122:y:2012:i::p:532-554 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Péter Gábriel & Ádám Reiff, 2010. "Price setting in Hungary-a store-level analysis," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 161-176.
    13. Millard, Stephen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model of energy, costs and inflation in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 432, Bank of England.
    14. Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Moench, Emanuel & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2009. "Sectoral price data and models of price setting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 78-99.
    15. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    16. Harrison, Richard & Thomas, Ryland & de Weymarn, Iain, 2011. "The impact of permanent energy price shocks on the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 433, Bank of England.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dixon, Huw & Seaton, Jonathan & Waterson, Michael, 2014. "Price Flexibility In British Supermarkets: Moderation And Recession," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1041, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CPI inflation; Sectoral inflation rates; Generalised Taylor economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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