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Understanding the macroeconomic effects of working capital in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio

    () (Bank of England)

  • McMahon, Michael

    () (University of Warwick, and Centre for Economic Performance, LSE)

  • Millard, Stephen

    () (Bank of England)

  • Rachel, Lukasz

    () (Bank of England)

Abstract

The most recent recession has been associated with a financial crisis that led to a large widening of spreads and quantitative restrictions on lending. As well as affecting investment, such a credit contraction is likely to have had a large effect on the working capital positions of UK firms and this, in turn, is likely to have affected the United Kingdom’s supply potential, at least temporarily. However, the role of such disruptions in the business cycle is not well understood. In this paper we first document the behaviour of working capital in the United Kingdom. In order to understand the effects of working capital on macroeconomic variables, we then solve and calibrate a DSGE model that introduces an explicit role for the components of working capital (net cash, inventories, and trade credit). We find that this model produces the standard responses of macroeconomic variables to productivity shocks, but we also find that financial intermediation shocks, similar to those experienced in the United Kingdom post-2007, have persistent negative effects on economic activity; these effects are reinforced by reductions in trade credit. Our model also documents a crucial role for monetary policy to offset such shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & McMahon, Michael & Millard, Stephen & Rachel, Lukasz, 2011. "Understanding the macroeconomic effects of working capital in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 422, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0422
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcin Bielecki, 2017. "Long shadows of financial shocks: an endogenous growth perspective," Working Papers 2017-22, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., 2014. "Macroprudential regulation and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 44-63.
    3. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
    4. Barnett, Alina & Batten, Sandra & Chiu, Adrian & Franklin, Jeremy & Sebastia-Barriel, Maria, 2014. "The UK productivity puzzle," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, pages 114-128.
    5. William Tayler & Roy Zilberman, 2014. "Macroprudential regulation and the role of monetary policy," Working Papers 63933064, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    6. Millard, Stephen & Nicolae, Anamaria, 2014. "The effect of the financial crisis on TFP growth: a general equilibrium approach," Bank of England working papers 502, Bank of England.
    7. Tayler, William J. & Zilberman, Roy, 2016. "Macroprudential regulation, credit spreads and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 144-158.
    8. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pinter, Gabor, 2016. "VAR models with non-Gaussian shocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86238, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2011. "Macroprudential Regulation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers Series 254, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., 2014. "Macroprudential regulation and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 44-63.
    12. Kapetanios, G & Price, SG & Young, G, 2017. "A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: forecasting and structural identification," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20328, University of Essex, Essex Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Working capital; business cycle model; spreads; financial crisis.;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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