IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ukc/ukcedp/0804.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inventory Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Katsuyuki Shibayama

Abstract

This paper investigates a rational dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a stockout constraint and a production chain. Our model shows that both stockout avoidance and cost shock mechanisms replicate stylised inventory facts -- production is more volatile than sales and inventory investment is procyclical. In addition, production smoothing also works at very high frequencies. Note that the cost shock and production smoothing mechanisms are naturally embedded in our micro-founded general equilibrium framework. Moreover, as a by-product, the production chain causes the slow adjustment of inventories in aggregate. Consequently, our model generates (a) high labour volatility and (b) low correlation between labour productivity and output; the standard RBC cannot produce these two empirical findings. Finally, our model yields inventory cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2008. "Inventory Cycles," Studies in Economics 0804, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0804
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/repec/0804.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Andreas Hornstein, 2000. "(S, s) Inventory Policies in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 117-145.
    2. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    3. Andrew B. Abel, 1985. "Inventories, Stock-Outs, and Production Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 1563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Wen, Yi, 2005. "Understanding the inventory cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1533-1555, November.
    5. Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1997. "Inventories and the business cycle: an overview," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q III, pages 11-22.
    6. Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
    7. Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2001. "Sticky prices and inventories : production smoothing reconsidered," Working Paper 01-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    8. Andreas Hornstein, 1998. "Inventory investment and the business cycle," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 49-71.
    9. Andrew B. Abel, 1985. "Inventories, Stock-Outs and Production Smoothing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(2), pages 283-293.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & McMahon, Michael & Millard, Stephen & Rachel, Lukasz, 2011. "Understanding the macroeconomic effects of working capital in the United Kingdom," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 959, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wen, Yi, 2005. "Understanding the inventory cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1533-1555, November.
    2. Zhiwei Xu & Yi Wen & pengfei Wang, 2012. "When Do Inventories Destabilize the Economy? ---A Tractable Approach to (S,s) Policies," 2012 Meeting Papers 288, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Yi Wen, 2008. "Inventories, liquidity, and the macroeconomy," Working Papers 2008-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Yi Wen, 2011. "Input and Output Inventory Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 181-212, October.
    5. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.
    6. Yi Wen, 2007. "Production and Inventory Behavior of Capital," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 95-112, May.
    7. Wen, Yi, 2004. "Durable Goods Inventories and the Volatility of Production: Explaining the Less Volatile U.S. Economy," Working Papers 04-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    8. Shibayama Katsuyuki & Chadha Jagjit S., 2014. "Inventories and the stockout constraint in general equilibrium," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-48, January.
    9. Leonardo Auernheimer & Danilo Trupkin, 2014. "The Role of Inventories and Capacity Utilization as Shock Absorbers," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 70-85, January.
    10. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2007. "Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of ( S , s ) Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1165-1188, September.
    11. Gérard P. Cachon & Taylor Randall & Glen M. Schmidt, 2007. "In Search of the Bullwhip Effect," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 457-479, April.
    12. Wen, Yi, 2004. "General Equilibrium Analysis of the Supply of Capital," Working Papers 04-02, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    13. Liu, Wen-Hsien & Chung, Ching-Fan & Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2013. "Inventory change, capacity utilization and the semiconductor industry cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-127.
    14. Wen, Yi, 2003. "Durable Goods Inventories and the Volatility of Production: A Puzzle," Working Papers 03-12, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    15. Wen, Yi, 2003. "Understanding the Inventory Cycle: I. Partial Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 03-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    16. Andreas Hornstein, 1998. "Inventory investment and the business cycle," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 49-71.
    17. Moulet, Sonia & Rouchier, Juliette, 2008. "The influence of seller learning and time constraints on sequential bargaining in an artificial perishable goods market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2322-2348, July.
    18. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2007. "Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 131-152, July.
    19. Cavallo, Alberto & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy, 2023. "What can stockouts tell us about inflation? Evidence from online micro data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    20. Hau L. Lee & V. Padmanabhan & Seungjin Whang, 2004. "Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1875-1886, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inventories; inventory cycles; stockout constraint; production chain; over-damped oscillations; dyanamic stochastic general equilibrium model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0804. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr Anirban Mitra (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.