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Firms' Precautionary Savings and Employment during a Credit Crisis

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  • Davide Melcangi

Abstract

Can the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks be large even when a small share of firms is credit constrained? I use UK firm-level accounting data to discipline a heterogeneous-firm model where the interaction between real and financial frictions induces precautionary cash holdings. In the data, firms increased their cash ratios during the Great Recession, and cash-intensive firms displayed higher employment growth. A tightening of firms' credit conditions generates the same dynamics in the model. Unconstrained firms preemptively respond to credit supply shocks; this precautionary channel, when appropriately quantified, crucially matters for the aggregate dynamics and firm-level patterns.

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  • Davide Melcangi, 2024. "Firms' Precautionary Savings and Employment during a Credit Crisis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 356-386, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:16:y:2024:i:1:p:356-86
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210269
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    Cited by:

    1. Albuquerque, Bruno, 2021. "Corporate debt booms, financial constraints and the investment nexus," Bank of England working papers 935, Bank of England.
    2. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2021. "FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 1-44, January.
    3. Kieran Larkin, 2021. "Financial Shocks or Productivity Slowdown: Contrasting the Great Recession and Recovery in the United States and United Kingdom," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 99-126, January.
    4. Davide Melcangi, 2018. "The Marginal Propensity to Hire," 2018 Meeting Papers 807, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Gabriel Chodorow‐Reich & Antonio Falato, 2022. "The Loan Covenant Channel: How Bank Health Transmits to the Real Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 85-128, February.
    6. Kevin L. Kliesen & David C. Wheelock, 2021. "Managing a New Policy Framework: Paul Volcker, the St. Louis Fed, and the 1979-82 War on Inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 71-97, January.
    7. Povilas Lastauskas, 2022. "Lockdown, employment adjustment, and financial frictions," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 919-942, February.
    8. Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro & Moen, Espen R., 2018. "Financial constraints in search equilibrium: Mortensen Pissarides meet Holmstrom and Tirole," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-155.
    9. Sriya Anbil & Mark A. Carlson & Christopher Hanes & David C. Wheelock, 2021. "A New Daily Federal Funds Rate Series and History of the Federal Funds Market, 1928-54," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 45-70, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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