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Firms’ Precautionary Savings and Employment during a Credit Crisis

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Abstract

Can the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks be large even when a small share of firms are credit-constrained? I use U.K. firm-level accounting data to discipline a heterogeneous-firm model where the interaction between real and financial frictions induces precautionary cash holdings. In the data, firms increased their cash ratios during the last recession, and cash-intensive firms displayed higher employment growth. A tightening of firms’ credit conditions generates the same dynamics in the model. Unconstrained firms pre-emptively respond to credit supply shocks; this precautionary channel, when appropriately quantified, crucially matters for the aggregate dynamics and firm-level patterns.

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  • Davide Melcangi, 2019. "Firms’ Precautionary Savings and Employment during a Credit Crisis," Staff Reports 904, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:904
    Note: Revised July 2021.
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    2. Povilas Lastauskas, 2022. "Lockdown, employment adjustment, and financial frictions," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 919-942, February.
    3. Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro & Moen, Espen R., 2018. "Financial constraints in search equilibrium: Mortensen Pissarides meet Holmstrom and Tirole," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-155.
    4. Sriya Anbil & Mark A. Carlson & Christopher Hanes & David C. Wheelock, 2021. "A New Daily Federal Funds Rate Series and History of the Federal Funds Market, 1928-54," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 45-70, January.
    5. Davide Melcangi, 2018. "The Marginal Propensity to Hire," 2018 Meeting Papers 807, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Bruno Albuquerque, 2021. "Corporate debt booms, financial constraints and the investment nexus," Bank of England working papers 935, Bank of England.
    7. Kevin L. Kliesen & David C. Wheelock, 2021. "Managing a New Policy Framework: Paul Volcker, the St. Louis Fed, and the 1979-82 War on Inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 71-97, January.
    8. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2021. "FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 1-44, January.
    9. Bruno Albuquerque, 2024. "Corporate debt booms, financial constraints, and the investment nexus," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 766-789, August.
    10. Kieran Larkin, 2021. "Financial Shocks or Productivity Slowdown: Contrasting the Great Recession and Recovery in the United States and United Kingdom," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 99-126, January.
    11. Danilo Stojanovic & Veljko Bojovic, 2025. "Firm-level Uncertainty and Frictions: Implications for Capital and Financial Decisions in the US," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp793, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial frictions; employment; heterogeneous firms; precautionary savings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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