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Modeling Macro-Fiscal Interlinkages: Case of Georgia

Author

Listed:
  • Shalva Mkhatrishvili

    (National Bank of Georgia)

  • Zviad Zedginidze

    (National Bank of Georgia)

Abstract

The global financial and European debt crises exposed the need for a new approach to fiscal modeling to support decision making analytically. With this purpose, in the following paper we present a macro-fiscal model. By capturing macro-fiscal interlinkages, especially those between fiscal variables and exchange rates, the model enables to analyze various fiscal scenarios with the focus of its impact on debt sustainability and real sector, as well as to conduct forecasting exercises, for small open economies with potentially large share of foreign currency denominated debt in the overall public debt. Finally, the model is applied to Georgian economy to interpret its’ historical data, provide an optimal policy path for future and analyze debt sustainability under several stress scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Zviad Zedginidze, 2015. "Modeling Macro-Fiscal Interlinkages: Case of Georgia," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 7(1), pages 15-41, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:7:y:2015:i:1:p:15-41
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Salome Tvalodze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Tamar Mdivnishvili & Davit Tutberidze & Zviad Zedginidze, 2016. "The National Bank of Georgia's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System," NBG Working Papers 01/2016, National Bank of Georgia.
    2. Huseynov, Nijat, 2017. "The Classification of Public Expenditure in Post-Soviet Union States and OECD Member Countries," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 62(3), pages 380-400.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; macro-fiscal interlinkages; new-Keynesian modeling; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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