Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

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Top JEL
/ E: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
/ / E3: Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
/ / / E37: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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This JEL code is mentioned in the following RePEc Biblio entries:

1. Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
2. Nowcasting

2017

• Tran Thanh Hoa, 2017, "Forecasting Inflation in Vietnam with Univariate and Vector Autoregressive Models," IHEID Working Papers, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, number 05-2017, Feb.
• Francisco José Veiga, 2017, "Forecast errors in prices and wages: the experience with three programme countries," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 44, pages 3-19, July, DOI: 10.14195/2183-203X_44_1.
• Alice Albonico & Alessia Paccagnini & Patrizio Tirelli, 2017, "PIIGS in the Euro area: An empirical DSGE model," Discussion Papers in Economics, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, number economics:201710, Oct.
• Maximilian Goedl, 2017, "The Sovereign-Bank Interaction in the Eurozone Crisis," Graz Economics Papers, University of Graz, Department of Economics, number 2017-10, Oct.
• Florian Brugger & Joern Kleinert, 2017, "The strong increase of Austrian government debt in the Kreisky era: Austro-Keynesianism or just stubborn forecast errors?," Graz Economics Papers, University of Graz, Department of Economics, number 2017-15, Dec.
• Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Gabi Waldhof, 2017, "Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts: Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2017-002, Aug.
• Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2019, "Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor-augmented mixed-frequency approach," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-01636761, DOI: 10.1111/twec.12708.
• Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Paul Gomme, 2017, "Debt Hangover in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Post-Print, HAL, number halshs-01520860, Mar.
• Zsolt Darvas, 2017, "Why is it so hard to reach the EU’s ‘poverty’ target?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, number 1714, Jun.
• Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Gabi Waldhof, 2017, "Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts: Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters," Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics, number 201701, Jul.
• Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ansgar Rannenberg & Sven Schreiber, 2017, "Reassessing the Impact of the US Fiscal Stimulus: The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, volume 10, issue 4, pages 12-31, April.
• Diego Winkelried, 2017, "Inferring Inflation Expectations from Fixed-Event Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, volume 13, issue 2, pages 1-31, June.
• María José Bosch & Carlos J. García & Marta Manriquez & Gabriel A. Valenzuela, 2017, "Macroeconomía Y Conciliación Familiar: El Impacto Económico De Los Jardines Infantiles," ILADES-UAH Working Papers, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, number inv318, Apr.
• Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Saurabh Mishra & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2017, "Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund, number 2017/196, Sep.
• Thomas Theobald & Peter Hohlfeld, 2017, "Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?," IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute, number 185-2017.
• Junjie Guo & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Jinho Choi, 2017, "Identification and Generalized Band Spectrum Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," CAEPR Working Papers, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington, number 2017-014, Nov.
• Jeetendra Khadan, 2017, "An Econometric Analysis Of Energy Revenue And Government Expenditure Shocks On Economic Growth In Trinidad And Tobago," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, volume 51, issue 2, pages 183-203, April-Jun.
• Tafirenyika Sunde & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2017, "Determinants of house prices and new construction activity: An empirical investigation of the Namibian housing market," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, volume 51, issue 3, pages 389-407, July-Sept.
• Heilemann Ullrich & Schnorr-Bäcker Susanne, 2017, "Could the start of the German recession 2008–2009 have been foreseen? Evidence from Real-Time Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, volume 237, issue 1, pages 29-62, February, DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2016-1002.
• Kovacs Kevin & Boulier Bryan & Stekler Herman, 2017, "Nowcasting: Identifying German Cyclical Turning Points," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, volume 237, issue 4, pages 329-341, August, DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2017-0115.
• Aykut Ekinci & Halil İbrahim Erdal, 2017, "Forecasting Bank Failure: Base Learners, Ensembles and Hybrid Ensembles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, volume 49, issue 4, pages 677-686, April, DOI: 10.1007/s10614-016-9623-y.
• Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2017, "The return of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, volume 50, issue 3, pages 259-277, August, DOI: 10.1007/s10644-017-9212-7.
• Philippe De Donder & John E. Roemer, 2017, "The dynamics of capital accumulation in the US: simulations after piketty," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, volume 15, issue 2, pages 121-141, June, DOI: 10.1007/s10888-016-9346-2.
• Yngve Abrahamsen & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Klaus Abberger & Florian Chatagny & Andreas Dibiasi & Florian Eckert & Livia Eichenberger & Anne Kathrin Funk & Michael Graff & Florian Hälg & David Iselin & Hein, 2017, "Weitere Erholung der Schweizer Wirtschaft," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, volume 11, issue 1, pages 1-74, March, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569.
• Yngve Abrahamsen & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Klaus Abberger & Florian Chatagny & Andreas Dibiasi & Florian Eckert & Livia Eichenberger & Anne Kathrin Funk & Michael Graff & Florian Hälg & David Iselin & Hein, 2017, "Konjunkturbild verbessert sich weiter," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, volume 11, issue 2, pages 1-24, June, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569.
• Yngve Abrahamsen & Klaus Abberger & Florian Chatagny & Andreas Dibiasi & Florian Eckert & Anne Kathrin Funk & Michael Graff & Florian Hälg & David Iselin & Heiner Mikosch & Stefan Neuwirth & Alexander, 2017, "Internationale Impulse beflügeln die Schweizer Wirtschaft," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, volume 11, issue 3, pages 1-102, October, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569.
• Yngve Abrahamsen & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Klaus Abberger & Florian Chatagny & Andreas Dibiasi & Florian Eckert & Anne Kathrin Funk & Michael Graff & Florian Hälg & David Iselin & Heiner Mikosch & Stefan N, 2017, "Der Aufschwung ist da," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, volume 11, issue 4, pages 1-30, December, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569.
• Jaqueson K Galimberti, 2017, "Forecasting GDP growth from the outer space," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 17-427, Feb, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-010852413.
• Aleksandar Vasilev, 2017, "Business Cycle Accounting: Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2014)," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), volume 14, issue 2, pages 197-219, December.
• Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2017, "Boosting and regional economic forecasting: the case of Germany," Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 49919.
• Magdalena Petrovska & Gani Ramadani & Nikola Naumovski & Biljana Jovanovic, 2017, "Forecasting Macedonian Inflation: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," Working Papers, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, number 2017-06.
• Aleksandra Hałka & Jacek Kotłowski, 2017, "Global or Domestic? Which Shocks Drive Inflation in European Small Open Economies?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 53, issue 8, pages 1812-1835, August, DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1193001.
• Alice, Albonico & Roberta, Cardani & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2017, "Debunking the Myth of Southern Profligacy. A DSGE Analysis of Business Cycles in the EMU’s Big Four," Working Papers, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, number 373, Nov, revised Jan 2018.
• Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2017, "Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass-through across countries and time," Discussion Papers, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England, number 50, Jul.
• National Bank of Belgium, 2017, "Economic projections for Belgium – Spring 2017," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 7-29, June.
• Gregory De Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Yuliya Rychalovska & Rafael Wouters, 2017, "An estimated two-country EA-US model with limited exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium, number 317, Mar.
• Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2017, "Circumventing the Zero Lower Bound with Monetary Policy Rules Based on Money," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 23157, Feb.
• Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2017, "Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 23647, Aug.
• Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Byoungchan Lee, 2017, "A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 23998, Nov.
• Igor Živko & Mile BoÅ¡njak, 2017, "Time Series Modeling of Inflation and its Volatility in Croatia," Notitia - journal for economic, business and social issues, Notitia Ltd., volume 1, issue 3, pages 1-10, December.
• Doriana Andreea Ramescu & Nicoleta Sirghi, 2017, "The Price Evolution In The Context Of Economic Crisis," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, volume 2, issue 1, pages 72-80, March.
• Francesca Rondina, 2017, "Model Uncertainty and the Direction of Fit of the Postwar U.S. Phillips Curve(s)," Working Papers, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics, number 1702E.
• Christian Matthes & Francesca Rondina, 2017, "Two-sided Learning and Short-Run Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model of the Economy," Working Papers, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics, number 1705E.
• P. Gagliardini & E. Ghysels & M. Rubin, 2017, "Indirect Inference Estimation of Mixed Frequency Stochastic Volatility State Space Models using MIDAS Regressions and ARCH Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, volume 15, issue 4, pages 509-560.
• Fedrico Torrachi, 2017, "How Do Credit Supply Conditions Affect the Labor Market? Estimating a New-Keynesian DSGE Model with Labor and Credit Market Frictions," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, number 817, Jan.
• Alonso, Julio César & Rivera, Andrés Felipe, 2017, "Pronosticando la inflación mensual en Colombia un paso hacia delante: una aproximación "de abajo hacia arriba" || Forecasting the Colombian Monthly Inflation One Step Ahead: A "Bottom t," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, volume 23, issue 1, pages 98-118, Junio.
• Josiah Ringelberg & Andrew Johnson & Michael Boehlje & Michael Gunderson & Nathan Daninger, 2017, "Modeling With @Risk:A Tutorial Guide," Working Papers, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics, number 16-3.
• Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2017, "Political Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations," PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, number 17-016, Jul, revised 25 Jul 2017.
• Blazej Mazur, 2017, "Probabilistic predictive analysis of business cycle fluctuations in Polish economy," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, volume 12, issue 3, pages 435-452, September, DOI: 10.24136/eq.v12i3.23.
• Blazej Mazur, 2017, "Density Forecasts of Polish Industrial Production: a Probabilistic Perspective on Business Cycle Fluctuations," Working Papers, Institute of Economic Research, number 75/2017, May, revised May 2017.
• Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Luvsannyam, Davaajargal, 2017, "Forecasting inflation in Mongolia: A dynamic model averaging approach," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 102602.
• Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017, "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 76556, Feb.
• Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017, "Aggregate Density Forecasting from Disaggregate Components Using Large VARs," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 76849, Feb.
• Pincheira, Pablo, 2017, "A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 77027, Feb.
• Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2017, "Investment in capital markets," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 77414, Mar.
• BLINOV, Sergey, 2017, "Использование Взаимосвязи Между Ввп И Денежной Массой Для Экономического Прогнозирования
  [Economic Forecasting Based on the Relationship between GDP and Real Money Supply]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 77475, Mar.
• Medel, Carlos A., 2017, "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Globalisation, Combination, and Accuracy," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 78439, Apr.
• BLINOV, Sergey, 2017, "Economic Forecasting Based on the Relationship between GDP and Real Money Supply," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 78717, Apr.
• Pinshi, Christian, 2017, "Une perspective macroprudentielle pour la stabilité financière
  [A macroprudential perspective of financial stability]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 79189, May, revised 16 May 2017.
• Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2017, "Forecasting Inflation in Latin America with Core Measures," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 80496, Jul.
• Pinshi Paula, Christian, 2017, "Une perspective macroprudentielle pour la stabilité financière
  [A macroprudential perspective on financial stability]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 80505, Jun, revised Jun 2017.
• Kuusela, Annika & Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017, "What do the shadow rates tell us about future inflation?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 80542, Aug.
• Hecq, Alain & Issler, João Victor & Telg, Sean, 2017, "Mixed Causal-Noncausal Autoregressions with Strictly Exogenous Regressors," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 80767, Aug.
• Giannoulakis, Stylianos, 2017, "Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Tobin’s Q Investment Theory Features," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 80892, May.
• Gallic, Ewen & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2017, "Weather Shocks, Climate Change and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 81230, Aug.
• Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017, "Forecasting Economic Aggregates Using Dynamic Component Grouping," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 81585, Sep.
• Garnitz, Johanna & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2017, "Forecasting GDP all over the World: Evidence from Comprehensive Survey Data," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 81772, Oct.
• Hegadekatti, Kartik & S G, Yatish, 2017, "The Programmable Economy: Envisaging an Entire Planned Economic System as a Single Computer through Blockchain Networks," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 82831, Mar, revised 16 May 2017.
• Topan, Ligia & Castro, César & Jerez, Miguel & Barge-Gil, Andrés, 2017, "Oil price pass-through into inflation in Spain at national and regional level," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 87821, Jan.
• Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Sen Gupta, Abhijit, 2017, "Drivers and Impact of Food Inflation in India," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 88721, revised 2017.
• Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta, 2017, "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201732, May.
• Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2017, "Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Growth and Inflation in the Eurozone: A Causal Approach," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201737, May.
• Jiří Šindelář, 2017, "GDP Forecasting by Czech Institutions: An Empirical Evaluation," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2017, issue 2, pages 155-169, DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.601.
• Ondřej Čížek, 2017, "Reakční funkce Evropské centrální banky
  [The Reaction Function of the European Central Bank]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2017, issue 4, pages 424-439, DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1153.
• Andrea Tkáčová & Veronika Kišová, 2017, "Zmeny zloženia kompozitného predstihového indikátora Slovenska v čase
  [Changes of Composite Leading Indicator Composition over Time]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2017, issue 5, pages 583-600, DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1163.
• David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017, "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia, number rdp2017-01, Feb.
• Oscar Pavlov & Mark Weder, 2017, "Product Scope and Endogenous Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, volume 24, pages 175-191, March, DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2017.01.006.
• Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone & Tobias Adrian, 2017, "Vulnerable Growth," 2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 1317.
• Hossein Akbari Fard & Amin Ghasemi Nejad & Maryam Rezaee Jafari, 2017, "Modeling Factors Influencing Inflation Rate in Iran's Economy Using Firefly and Cuckoo Algorithm," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, volume 4, issue 3, pages 143-168.
• Elano Ferreira Arruda & Antônio Clécio Brito, 2017, "Previsão de inflação: uma análise para a Região Metropolitana de Fortaleza," Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos (ABER), volume 11, issue 1, pages 78-92.
• Mamdouh Abdelmoula M. ABDELSALAM, 2017, "Improving Phillips Curve’s Inflation Forecasts under Misspecification," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 3, pages 54-76, September.
• Andrey Kudryavtsev & Shosh Shahrabani & Yaniv Azoulay, 2017, "Frequency of Adjusting Asset Allocations in the Life-Cycle Pension Model: When Doing More Is Not Necessarily Better," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, volume 4, issue 1, pages 13-33.
• Akaev, Askar A. (Акаев, Аскар А.) & Korotayev, Andrey V (Коротаев, Андрей В.), 2017, "Toward Forecasting Global Economic Dynamics of the Forthcoming Years
  [К Прогнозированию Глобальной Экономической Динамики Ближайших Лет]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, volume 1, pages 8-39, February.
• Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Constantin ANGHELACHE & Georgiana NITA & Gyorgy BODO, 2017, "The Main Concepts Of The Eqcm Model And Data-Based Dvar Systems," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, volume 65, issue 7, pages 132-140, July.
• Ganapati Mendali & Sanjukta Das, 2017, "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Domestic Prices," Foreign Trade Review, , volume 52, issue 3, pages 135-156, August, DOI: 10.1177/0015732516650828.
• Rudrani Bhattacharya & Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2017, "What Role Did Rising Demand Play in Driving Food Prices Up?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , volume 6, issue 1, pages 59-81, June, DOI: 10.1177/2277978717695155.
• Kuo-Hsuan Chin & Xue Li, 2017, "Bayesian Forecast Combination in VAR-DSGE Models," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, number 5408084, Jul.
• Miroslava Zavadska & Lucía Morales & Joseph Coughlan, 2017, "The Importance of Integrating Quantitative Research Methods to Understand Commodity Business Finance," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, number 5908090, Oct.
• Miroslava Zavadska & Lucía Morales & Joseph Coughlan, 2017, "The Efficiency Analysis of Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices: A Moving Window Approach," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, number 5908091, Oct.
• Thierno Thioune, 2017, "Financial Instability and Inequality Dynamics in the WAEMU," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, volume 2, issue 1, pages 43-62, June, DOI: 10.33119/ERFIN.2017.2.1.3.
• Mihaela Simionescu, 2017, "Bayesian Forecast Intervals for Inflation and Unemployment Rate in Romania," Bulgarian Economic Papers, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria // Center for Economic Theories and Policies at Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, number bep-2017-06, May, revised May 2017.
• Alain Galli & Christian Hepenstrick & Rolf Scheufele, 2017, "Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, number 2017-02.
• Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2017, "Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, number 2017-12.
• Roberto Meurer & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2017, "Heterogeneity in Monthly Inflation Expectations in Brazil: Evidence with Aggregate Data from the Focus Survey," Working Papers, Department of Economics, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), number 2017_08, Jun.
• Martyna Marczak & Víctor Gómez, 2017, "Monthly US business cycle indicators: a new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 52, issue 4, pages 1379-1408, June, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1108-2.
• Jonas Dovern & Matthias Hartmann, 2017, "Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 63-77, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1137-x.
• Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017, "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 79-99, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1151-z.
• Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler & Silvia Maria Matos, 2017, "Applying a microfounded-forecasting approach to predict Brazilian inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 137-163, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1163-8.
• Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2017, "Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 183-194, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1200-7.
• Graham Elliott, 2017, "Forecast combination when outcomes are difficult to predict," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 7-20, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1253-2.
• Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017, "A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 217-234, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1254-1.
• Sebastian Ankargren & Mårten Bjellerup & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2017, "The importance of the financial system for the real economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 4, pages 1553-1586, December, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1175-4.
• Sami Oinonen & Maritta Paloviita, 2017, "How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), volume 13, issue 2, pages 139-163, November, DOI: 10.1007/s41549-017-0017-6.
• Philippe De Donder & John E. Roemer, 2017, "The dynamics of capital accumulation in the US: simulations after piketty," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, volume 15, issue 2, pages 121-141, June, DOI: 10.1007/s10888-016-9346-2.
• Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2017, "Boosting and regional economic forecasting: the case of Germany," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, volume 10, issue 2, pages 161-175, July, DOI: 10.1007/s12076-016-0179-1.
• James Morley & Irina B Panovska, 2017, "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?," Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales, number 2016-12A, Jan.
• Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2017, "Why has the US economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Working Papers, University of Sydney, School of Economics, number 2017-14, Nov, revised Jun 2019.
• Jari Hännikäinen, 2017, "The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: evidence from a data-rich environment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 24, issue 8, pages 527-535, May, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1208347.
• Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2017, "An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, volume 17, issue 1, pages 31-38.
• H. Murat Ozbilgin, 2017, "Forecasting the Growth Cycles of the Turkish Economy," Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, number 1715.
• Zhang Chengsi & Xingchen Ji & Wensheng Dai, 2017, "Global Output Gap and Domestic Inflation in China," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, volume 64, issue 1, pages 17-30.
• Marcin Bielecki, 2017, "Business cycles, innovation and growth: welfare analysis," Working Papers, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, number 2017-19.
• Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017, "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers, WIFO, number 542, Oct.
• Anders Warne & Günter Coenen & Kai Christoffel, 2017, "Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State‐Space Models with Applications to DSGE, DSGE‐VAR, and VAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 1, pages 103-119, January.
• Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2017, "Euromind‐ D : A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 3, pages 683-703, April.
• Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017, "Density Forecasts With Midas Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 4, pages 783-801, June.
• Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2017, "The Informational Content of the Term Spread in Forecasting the US Inflation Rate: A Nonlinear Approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 36, issue 2, pages 109-121, March.
• Harri Ponka, 2017, "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 36, issue 5, pages 469-482, August.
• Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2017, "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation: A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 36, issue 5, pages 515-540, August.
• Rangan Gupta & Eric Olson & Mark E. Wohar, 2017, "Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 36, issue 6, pages 640-650, September.
• Michael K Andersson & Ted Aranki & André Reslow, 2017, "Adjusting for information content when comparing forecast performance," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 36, issue 7, pages 784-794, November.
• Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017, "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 49, issue 5, pages 931-968, August, DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12401.
• Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2017, "The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 49, issue 8, pages 1747-1776, December, DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12430.
• Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & Saurabh Mishra & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, 2017, "Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies," Working papers, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute, number 2017rwp-111, Sep.
• Itkonen, Juha & Juvonen, Petteri, 2017, "Nowcasting the Finnish economy with a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model," BoF Economics Review, Bank of Finland, number 6/2017.
• Ambrocio, Gene, 2017, "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 37/2017.
• Caballero, Julián & Fernández, Andrés, 2017, "On corporate borrowing, credit spreads and economic activity in emerging economies: An empirical investigation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 31/2017.
• Ambrocio, Gene, 2017, "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 37/2017.
• Diebold, Francis X. & Schorfheide, Frank & Shin, Minchul, 2017, "Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility," CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), number 577.
• Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2017, "Business Cycle Accounting: Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2014)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, volume 14, issue 2, pages 197-219.
• Simionescu, Mihaela & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2017, "Big Data and Unemployment Analysis," GLO Discussion Paper Series, Global Labor Organization (GLO), number 81.
• Simionescu, Mihaela, 2017, "Prediction intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania. A Bayesian approach," GLO Discussion Paper Series, Global Labor Organization (GLO), number 82.
• Doll, Jens & Rosenthal, Beatrice & Volkenand, Jonas & Hamella, Sandra, 2017, "Nowcasting des deutschen BIP," Weidener Diskussionspapiere, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH), number 59.
• Heinisch, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017, "Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? German evidence," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), number 5/2017.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drygalla, Andrej & Heinisch, Katja & Kämpfe, Martina & Kiesel, Konstantin & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit & Wieschemeyer, Matthi, 2017, "Konjunktur aktuell: Beschäftigungsboom in Deutschland - aber gesamtwirtschaftlich keine Überhitzung," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 5, issue 1, pages 4-29.
• Bershadskyy, Dmitri & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drygalla, Andrej & Heinisch, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Lindner, Axel & Wieschemeyer, Matthias & Zeddies, Götz, 2017, "Die mittelfristige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland für die Jahre 2017 bis 2022 und finanzpolitische Optionen einer neuen Bundesregierung," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 5, issue 5, pages 138-145.
• Heilemann, Ullrich & Müller, Karsten, 2017, "Wenig Unterschiede: Zur Treffsicherheit internationaler Prognosen und Prognostiker," Working Papers, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science, number 149.
• Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Waldhof, Gaby, 2017, "Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts. Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters," Working Papers, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin, number 2, DOI: 10.18452/18132.
• Prüser, Jan, 2017, "Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching," Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, number 710, DOI: 10.4419/86788828.
• Li, Xinjue & Zbonakova, Lenka & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2017, "Penalized adaptive method in forecasting with large information set and structure change," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2017-023.
• Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2017, "The Stabilizing Role of Forward Guidance: A Macro Experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 168063.
• Heinrich, Markus & Carstensen, Kai & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik, 2017, "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 168206.

2016

• Alinezhad, Alireza & Nasiri Sadeghloo, Mohammad Javad, 2016, "Application of Malmquist Index in Two-Stage DEA for Measurement of Productivity Growth," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, volume 11, issue 1, pages 31-51, January.
• Rasekhi, Saeed & Rastgar, Majid, 2016, "Policy Time-Inconsistency: A Comparison of Managed Floating Exchange Rate and Controlled Exchange Rate Regimes," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, volume 11, issue 4, pages 351-373, October.
• Aleksandra Hałka & Karol Szafranek, 2016, "Whose Inflation Is It Anyway? Inflation Spillovers Between the Euro Area and Small Open Economies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 54, issue 2, pages 109-132, March, DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2015.1126788.
• Alice, Albonico & Alessia, Paccagnini & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016, "In search of the Euro Area Fiscal Stance," Working Papers, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, number 324, Feb, revised 24 Feb 2016.
• Alice, Albonico & Alessia, Paccagnini & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016, "PIIGS in the Euro Area. An Empirical DSGE Model," Working Papers, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, number 331, Mar, revised 11 Mar 2016.
• Brian Micallef, 2016, "Property price misalignment with fundamentals in Malta," CBM Working Papers, Central Bank of Malta, number WP/03/2016.
• Rueben Ellul, 2016, "A real-time measure of business conditions in Malta," CBM Working Papers, Central Bank of Malta, number WP/04/2016.
• László Békési & Csaba Köber & Henrik Kucsera & Tímea Várnai & Balázs Világi, 2016, "The macroeconomic forecasting model of the MNB," MNB Working Papers, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), number 2016/4.
• Diana Gabrielyan, 2016, "Forecasting Inflation Using The Phillips Curve: Evidence From Swedish Data," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia), number 100.
• National Bank of Belgium, 2016, "Economic projections for Belgium – Autumn 2016," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 7-30, December.
• National Bank of Belgium, 2016, "Economic projections for Belgium – Spring 2016," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 7-28, June.
• Christophe Piette, 2016, "Predicting Belgium’s GDP using targeted bridge models," Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium, number 290, Jan.
• Łukasz Lenart & Agnieszka Leszczyńska-Paczesna, 2016, "Do market prices improve the accuracy of inflation forecasting in Poland? A disaggregated approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, volume 47, issue 5, pages 365-394.
• Adrienne Csizmady & József Hegedüs, 2016, "Hungarian Mortgage Rescue Programs 2009-2016," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, Narodowy Bank Polski, chapter 1, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, "Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition".
• Jacek Łaszek & Hanna Augustyniak & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2016, "FX mortgages, housing boom and financial stability – a case study for Poland (2005-2015)," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, Narodowy Bank Polski, chapter 3, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, "Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition".
• Aleksandra Hałka & Jacek Kotłowski, 2016, "Global or domestic? Which shocks drive inflation in European small open economies?," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 232.
• Halina Kowalczyk & Ewa Stanisławska, 2016, "Are experts’ probabilistic forecasts similar to the NBP projections?," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 238.
• Paweł Pońsko & Bartosz Rybaczyk, 2016, "Fan chart – a tool for NBP’s monetary policy making," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 241.
• James D. Hamilton, 2016, "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 21863, Jan.
• Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal, 2016, "Solution Methods for Models with Rare Disasters," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 21997, Feb.
• Dario Caldara & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016, "The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 22058, Mar.
• Mario J. Crucini & Gregor W. Smith, 2016, "Distance and Time Effects in Swedish Commodity Prices, 1732–1914," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 22175, Apr.
• Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016, "The Evolution of U.S. Monetary Policy: 2000 - 2007," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 22693, Sep.
• Ball, Laurence & Chari, Anusha & Mishra, Prachi, 2016, "Understanding Inflation in India," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, volume 12, issue 1, pages 1-45.
• Zouhair Aït Benhamou, 2016, "Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: Regional and Global Factors," Research papers & Policy papers on Economic Trends and Policies, Policy Center for the New South, number 1601, Mar.
• Patrice Ollivaud & Pierre-Alain Pionnier & Elena Rusticelli & Cyrille Schwellnus & Seung-Hee Koh, 2016, "Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession: A contest between small-scale bridge and large-scale dynamic factor models," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 1313, Jul, DOI: 10.1787/5jlv2jj4mw40-en.
• David Havrlant & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2016, "On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-72.
• Arturo Leonardo Vásquez Cordano & Abdel M. Zellou, 2016, "Where are natural gas prices heading, and which are the environmental consequences for Latin America?," Working Papers, Osinergmin, Gerencia de Políticas y Análisis Económico, number 35, May.
• Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016, "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, volume 31, issue 85, pages 107-152.
• Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016, "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, volume 131, issue 1, pages 53-87.
• Lorenza Rossi & Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2016, "Firms’ Dynamics and Business Cycle: New Disaggregated Data," DEM Working Papers Series, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management, number 123, May.
• Fayyaz Hussain & Zafar Hayat, 2016, "Do Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation Forecastability: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, volume 55, issue 3, pages 211-225.
• Papa, Javier & et., al., 2016, "Forecasting Trade Deflators In Ireland," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 116754, Dec, revised Dec 2016.
• Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2016, "The Evasive Predictive Ability of Core Inflation," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 68704, Jan.
• Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2016, "Digital DNA of economy of scale and scope," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 68929, Jan.
• Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2016, "Precise measurement of macroeconomic variables in time domain using three dimensional wave diagrams," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 69576, Feb.
• Benchimol, Jonathan, 2016, "Money and monetary policy in Israel during the last decade," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 69587, Feb.
• Gerunov, Anton, 2016, "Automating Analytics: Forecasting Time Series in Economics and Business," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 71010, Apr.
• Accolley, Delali, 2016, "Physical and Human Capital over the Business Cycle," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 71017, Apr.
• Hännikäinen, Jari, 2016, "The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: Evidence from a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 71432, May.
• Shirai, Daichi, 2016, "Persistence and Amplification of Financial Frictions," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 72187, Jun.
• Belanger, Gilles, 2016, "Inequality Causes Recessions: A Fallout from Ramsey's Conjecture," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 72335, Jul.
• Fioramanti, Marco, 2016, "Potential Output, Output Gap and Fiscal Stance: is the EC estimation of the NAWRU too sensitive to be reliable?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 73762, Apr, revised Sep 2016.
• Hecq, Alain & Telg, Sean & Lieb, Lenard, 2016, "Do Seasonal Adjustments Induce Noncausal Dynamics in Inflation Rates?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 74922, Nov, revised 04 Nov 2016.
• Ellul, Reuben, 2016, "A real-time measure of business conditions in Malta," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 75057, Sep.