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Assessing House Price Developments in the EU

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  • Nicolas Philiponnet
  • Alessandro Turrini

Abstract

Booms and busts in house prices may have major macro-financial implications. Accordingly, monitoring developments in house prices plays an important role in the assessment of macroeconomic risks. This paper provides a methodology to estimate benchmarks for the assessment of developments in house prices in the EU context. A number of approaches are developed, based on (i) long-term averages for price-to-income ratios, (ii) long-term averages for price-to-rent ratios (iii) predictions from cointegration relationships between real house prices and their demand and supply determinants. With the latter approach, cointegration analysis is carried out both on individual countries' time series and on a panel of EU countries. The paper makes alternative proposals for computing long-term averages for price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios with a view to combining cross-country comparability with representativeness. The various benchmarks are combined to define a single synthetic benchmark based on model averaging techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Philiponnet & Alessandro Turrini, 2017. "Assessing House Price Developments in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 048, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:dispap:048
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    Cited by:

    1. Bastani, Spencer & Waldenström, Daniel, 2018. "How Should Capital Be Taxed? Theory and Evidence from Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 11475, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Miroslav Plasil & Michal Andrle, 2019. "Assessing house price sustainability," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,, Czech National Bank.
    3. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Meunier, Baptiste & Pouget, Sylvain, 2023. "Web-scraping housing prices in real-time: The Covid-19 crisis in the UK," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    4. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Alessandro Turrini & Peter Pontuch, 2019. "Assessing House Prices: Insights from "Houselev", a Dataset of Price Level Estimates," European Economy - Discussion Papers 101, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Jaunius Karmelavičius & Ieva Mikaliūnaitė-Jouvanceau & Austėja Petrokaitė, 2022. "Housing and credit misalignments in a two-market disequilibrium framework," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 42, Bank of Lithuania.
    6. Martin Cesnak & Jan Klacso, 2021. "Assessing real estate prices in Slovakia - a structural approach," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2021, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    7. Michal Andrle & Miroslav Plašil, 2019. "Assessing House Prices with Prudential and Valuation Measures," IMF Working Papers 2019/059, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Pásztor, Szabolcs & Kovács, Levente, 2018. "A globális jelzálogpiac helyzete és kihívásai [The state of global mortgage markets and the challenges to them]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1225-1256.
    9. Elena IONAȘCU, 2019. "The Dynamic Relationship Between The Residential Real Estate Markets, Macro – Economy And Institutional Development: Evidence From Eu Countries," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6, pages 75-107.
    10. Álvarez-Román, Laura & García-Posada, Miguel, 2021. "Are house prices overvalued in Spain? A regional approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    11. Marilena Mironiuc & Elena Ionașcu & Maria Carmen Huian & Alina Țaran, 2021. "Reflecting the Sustainability Dimensions on the Residential Real Estate Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-28, March.
    12. Dieckelmann, Daniel & Hempell, Hannah S. & Jarmulska, Barbara & Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek, 2023. "House prices and ultra-low interest rates: exploring the non-linear nexus," Working Paper Series 2789, European Central Bank.
    13. Jan R. Kim & Gieyoung Lim, 2018. "A look into German housing markets: A bubble call?," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 289-301, December.
    14. Vítor Martins & Alessandro Turrini & Bořek Vašíček & Madalina Zamfir, 2021. "Euro Area Housing Markets: Trends, Challenges and Policy Responses," European Economy - Discussion Papers 147, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    15. Gábor Márk Pellényi, 2019. "Regional Spillovers in the Hungarian Housing Market: Evidence from a Spatio-Temporal Model," European Economy - Discussion Papers 095, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2020. "Macroprudential Policy and Household Debt: What is Wrong with Swedish Macroprudential Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14585, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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