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Assessing House Prices with Prudential and Valuation Measures

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  • Michal Andrle
  • Miroslav Plašil

Abstract

In this paper we provide tools for assessing the house prices and housing valuation. We develop two approaches: (i) borrowing capacity approach, and (ii) intrinsic value approach. The borrowing capacity of households, together with their down payment, implies how much housing they can attain. In the intrinsic value approach, property value is viewed as a discounted present value of adjusted net rental income. Our approach does not involve a complex econometric model and only widely available data are used. The proposed indicators can guide households, financial markets and macroprudential authorities in their understanding of house prices development. To illustrate the concepts, we analyze the housing prices in the Czech Republic and assess the degree of market over-and undervaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Andrle & Miroslav Plašil, 2019. "Assessing House Prices with Prudential and Valuation Measures," IMF Working Papers 2019/059, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
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    3. Nicolas Philiponnet & Alessandro Turrini, 2017. "Assessing House Price Developments in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 048, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Ryan Fox & Peter Tulip, 2014. "Is Housing Overvalued?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2012. "Global Housing Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2012/217, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ms. Nan Geng, 2018. "Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/164, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hana Hejlova & Libor Holub & Miroslav Plasil, 2018. "The introduction and calibration of macroprudential tools targeted at residential real estate exposures in the Czech Republic," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2017/2018, chapter 0, pages 126-135, Czech National Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Petr Polak & Lubos Komarek, 2020. "Mortgage loan regulation instruments around the world," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - July 2020, pages 13-19, Czech National Bank.
    2. C. O. Iroham & M. E. Emetere & H. I. Okagbue & O. Ogunkoya & O. D. Durodola & N. J. Peter & O. M. Akinwale, 2019. "Modified Pricing Model for Negotiation of Mortgage Valuation Between Estate Surveyors and Valuers and Their Clients," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 20(4), pages 337-347, December.
    3. Martin Cesnak & Jan Klacso, 2021. "Assessing real estate prices in Slovakia - a structural approach," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2021, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    4. Frederik Schröder, 2023. "Linkages Between Property Prices and Macroeconomic Determinants: Evidence from Germany," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 17(2), pages 145-160.
    5. Martin Cesnak & Jan Klacso & Patrik Kupkovic & Andrej Moravcik & Stefan Rychtarik & Roman Vrbovsky, 2024. "Assessing Residential Real Estate prices in Slovakia: Possible Approaches and Indices," Working and Discussion Papers OP 1/2024, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    6. Michal Andrle & Miroslav Plašil, 2019. "Assessing House Prices in Canada," IMF Working Papers 2019/248, International Monetary Fund.

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