Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

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Top JEL
/ E: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
/ / E3: Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
/ / / E37: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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This JEL code is mentioned in the following RePEc Biblio entries:

1. Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
2. Nowcasting

2021

• Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2021, "Predicting recessions with a frontier measure of output gap: an application to Italian economy," LIDAM Reprints ISBA, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA), number 2021010, Jan, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-.
• Nurdaulet Abilov & Aizhan Bolatbayeva, 2021, "Nowcasting GDP growth in Russia with an incomplete dataset: A factor model approach," NAC Analytica Working Paper, NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University, number 18, Dec, revised Feb 2022.
• Erlan Konebayev, 2021, "Financial frictions in a commodity exporting small open economy: the Case of Kazakhstan," NAC Analytica Working Paper, NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University, number 21, Dec.
• Байкулаков Ш. // Baikulakov Sh. & Белгибаев З. // Belgibayev Z., 2021, "Анализ рисков потребительских кредитов с помощью алгоритмов машинного обучения // Consumer credit risk analysis via machine learning algorithms," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2, pages 4-26.
• Тулеуов Олжас // Tuleuov Olzhas & Ержан Ислам // Yerzhan Islam & Сейдахметов Ансар // Seidakhmetov Ansar, 2021, "Система Galymzhan: online-оценка потребительской инфляции в Казахстане // Galymzhan System: Online Assessment of Consumer Inflation in Kazakhstan," Working Papers, National Bank of Kazakhstan, number #2021-2.
• Байкулаков Шалкар // Baikulakov Shalkar & Белгибаев Зангар // Belgibayev Zanggar, 2021, "Анализ рисков потребительских кредитов с помощью алгоритмов машинного обучения // Consumer credit risk analysis via machine learning algorithms," Working Papers, National Bank of Kazakhstan, number #2021-4.
• Emilie Jasova & Bozena Kaderabkova, 2021, "Ambiguous effects of minimum wage tool of labour markets regulation – key study of V4 countries," International Journal of Economic Sciences, European Research Center, volume 10, issue 2, pages 59-86, December.
• Haykaz Igityan & Hovhannes Manukyan, 2020, "Fitting Armenian Data to the Simple DSGE Model with Permanent Productivity Growth," Working Papers, Central Bank of Armenia, number 14, Jan.
• Vahagn Davtyan & Haykaz Igityan, 2021, "Structural Reforms in DSGE Model," Working Papers, Central Bank of Armenia, number 17, Feb.
• Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2021, "Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?," Papers, arXiv.org, number 2103.01201, Mar.
• Sarun Kamolthip, 2021, "Macroeconomic forecasting with LSTM and mixed frequency time series data," Papers, arXiv.org, number 2109.13777, Sep.
• Joshua C. C. Chan, 2021, "Asymmetric Conjugate Priors for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers, arXiv.org, number 2111.07170, Nov.
• Jaqueson Galimberti, 2021, "Initial Beliefs Uncertainty and Information Weighting in the Estimation of Models with Adaptive Learning," Working Papers, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics, number 2021-01, Feb.
• Sabyasachi Kar & Amaani Bashir & Mayank Jain, 2021, "New Approaches to Forecasting Growth and Inflation: Big Data and Machine Learning," IEG Working Papers, Institute of Economic Growth, number 446, Oct.
• Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2021, "Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?," Working Papers, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, number 21-01, Mar.
• Joshua Brault & Hashmat Khan & Louis Phaneuf & Jean Gardy Victor, 2021, "Did the Fed Remain at the ZLB Long Enough? Lessons from the 2008-2019 Period," Working Papers, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, number 21-09, Nov.
• Joshua Brault & Louis Phaneuf, 2021, "Higher Order Interest-Smoothing, Time-Varying Inflation Target and the Prospect of Indeterminacy," Working Papers, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, number 21-10, Nov.
• Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Federico Mandelman & Yang Yu & Francesco Zanetti, 2021, "The "Matthew Effect" and Market Concentration: Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power," BCAM Working Papers, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics, number 2103, Feb.
• Rodolfo Méndez-Marcano, 2021, "Global | Modelo vectorial autorregresivo para los tests de estrés de la banca
  [Global | A vector autoregressive model for banking stress testing]," Working Papers, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department, number 21/08, Jul.
• Youngsoo Jang & Soyoung Lee, 2021, "A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Default Risk Models," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 21-11, Mar, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2021-11.
• Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021, "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update," Staff Analytical Notes, Bank of Canada, number 2021-6, Apr, DOI: 10.34989/san-2021-6.
• Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021, "Production potentielle et taux neutre au Canada : mise à jour de 2021," Staff Analytical Notes, Bank of Canada, number 2021-6fr, Apr, DOI: 10.34989/san-2021-6.
• Alberto Manuel López Galván, 2021, "Macroeconomic Factors for Inflation in Argentina 2013-2019," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, volume 1, issue 76, pages 75-102, May.
• Emilio Blanco & Laura D’Amato & Fiorella Dogliolo & Lorena Garegnani, 2021, "Nowcast of Macroeconomic Aggregates in Argentina: Comparing the Predictive Capacity of Different Models," BCRA Working Paper Series, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, number 202190, Jan.
• Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Samuel Hurtado & Alberto Urtasun, 2021, "Relación entre las medidas de contención de la pandemia, la movilidad y la actividad económica," Occasional Papers, Banco de España, number 2109, Mar.
• Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Samuel Hurtado & Alberto Urtasun, 2021, "The relationship between pandemic containment measures, mobility and economic activity," Occasional Papers, Banco de España, number 2109, Mar.
• Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021, "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers, Banco de España, number 2138, Oct.
• Valentina Aprigliano & Guerino Ardizzi & Alessia Cassetta & Alessandro Cavallero & Simone Emiliozzi & Alessandro Gambini & Nazzareno Renzi & Roberta Zizza, 2021, "Exploiting payments to track Italian economic activity: the experience at Banca d’Italia," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 609, Mar.
• Alberto Locarno & Alessandra Locarno, 2021, "Is inflation targeting a strategy past its sell-by date?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 1316, Feb.
• Delle Monache, Davide & De Polis, Andrea & Petrella, Ivan, 2021, "Modeling and forecasting macroeconomic downside risk," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 1324, Mar.
• Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021, "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2021-07, Jun.
• Edgar Caicedo-García & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, 2021, "Alivios de precios en la pandemia del Covid-19: ejercicio sobre el impacto en la inflación de Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 1172, Sep, DOI: 10.32468/be.1172.
• Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolás Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2021, "Unraveling the Exogenous Forces Behind Analysts’ Macroeconomic Forecasts," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 1184, Dec, DOI: 10.32468/be.1184.
• Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez & César Anzola-Bravo & Luisa Fernanda Ballén-Rubio & Valeria Bejarano-Salcedo & Eliana González-Molano & Anderson Grajales-Olarte & Alexander Guarín-López & María Alejandra , 2021, "¿Qué nos dicen las encuestas sobre la formación de expectativas de inflación?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 100, pages 1-95, September.
• Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Thomas Pical, 2021, "Can satellite data on air pollution predict industrial production?," Working papers, Banque de France, number 847.
• Flora Budianto & Giovanni Lombardo & Benoit Mojon & Daniel Rees, 2021, "Global reflation ?," BIS Bulletins, Bank for International Settlements, number 43, Jul.
• Jérémy Fouliard & Michael Howell & Hélène Rey, 2021, "Answering the Queen: Machine learning and financial crises," BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 926, Feb.
• Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2021, "What does machine learning say about the drivers of inflation?," BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 980, Nov.
• Bošnjak Mile & Novak Ivan & Bašić Maja, 2021, "Capital Market Returns and Inflation Nexus in Croatia: Wavelet Coherence Analysis," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, volume 12, issue 2, pages 253-267, December, DOI: 10.2478/bsrj-2021-0031.
• Tommaso Proietti & Alessandro Giovannelli, 2021, "Nowcasting monthly GDP with big data: A model averaging approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, volume 184, issue 2, pages 683-706, April, DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12645.
• Andreas Joseph & Eleni Kalamara & George Kapetanios & Galina Potjagailo & Chiranjit Chakraborty, 2021, "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England, number 915, Mar.
• Oren Barkan & Jonathan Benchimol & Itamar Caspi & Allon Hammer & Noam Koenigstein, 2021, "Forecasting CPI Inflation Components with Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Networks," Bank of Israel Working Papers, Bank of Israel, number 2021.06, Mar.
• Osnat Zohar, 2021, "Cyclicality of Uncertainty and Disagreement," Bank of Israel Working Papers, Bank of Israel, number 2021.09, May.
• Takuji Kawamoto & Takashi Nakazawa & Yui Kishaba & Kohei Matsumura & Jouchi Nakajima, 2021, "Supplementary Paper Series for the "Assessment" (2): Estimating Effects of Expansionary Monetary Policy since the Introduction of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) Using the," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, Bank of Japan, number 21-E-4, Apr.
• Jouchi Nakajima & Hiroaki Yamagata & Tatsushi Okuda & Shinnosuke Katsuki & Takeshi Shinohara, 2021, "Extracting Firms' Short-Term Inflation Expectations from the Economy Watchers Survey Using Text Analysis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, Bank of Japan, number 21-E-12, Oct.
• Iwanicz-Drozdowska Małgorzata & Kurowski Łukasz, 2021, "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer – the case of monetary policy and financial imbalances," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, volume 22, issue 4, pages 383-414, November, DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0045.
• Joshua Brault & Hashmat Khan & Louis Phaneuf & Jean Gardy Victor, 2021, "US Postwar Macroeconomic Fluctuations Without Indeterminacy," Carleton Economic Papers, Carleton University, Department of Economics, number 21-01, Feb, revised 25 May 2021.
• Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Federico Mandelman & Yu Yang & Francesco Zanetti, 2021, "The "Matthew Effect" and Market Concentration: Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 8897.
• Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2021, "Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 8989.
• Dzung Bui & Lena Dräger & Bernd Hayo & Giang Nghiem, 2021, "Consumer Sentiment during the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Role of Others' Beliefs," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 9010.
• Davide Cipullo & André Reslow, 2021, "Electoral Cycles in Macroeconomic Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 9088.
• Lutz Kilian & Nikos Nomikos & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021, "Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 9154.
• Vito Polito & Yunyi Zhang, 2021, "Tackling Large Outliers in Macroeconomic Data with Vector Artificial Neural Network Autoregression," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 9395.
• Kajal Lahiri & Junyan Zhang & Yongchen Zhao, 2021, "Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 9415.
• Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2021, "Identifying the Source of Information Rigidities in the Expectations Formation Process," CARF F-Series, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, number CARF-F-516, Jun.
• Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Federico Mandelman & Yang Yu & Francesco Zanetti, 2021, "The “Matthew Effect” and Market Concentration: Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power," Discussion Papers, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), number 2105, Feb.
• Hugo Couture & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2021, "Analyse du marché du travail à l’aide des données de Google Trends," CIRANO Project Reports, CIRANO, number 2021rp-15, Aug.
• Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2021, "Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2021s-09, Mar.
• Miroslav Plasil, 2021, "Designing Macro-Financial Scenarios: The New CNB Framework and Satellite Models for Property Prices and Credit," Research and Policy Notes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2021/01, Sep.
• Karel Musil & Stanislav Tvrz & Jan Vlcek, 2021, "News versus Surprise in Structural Forecasting Models: Central Bankers' Practical Perspective," Research and Policy Notes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2021/02, Dec.
• Juli√°n Roa Rozo, 2021, "Spillovers de la pol√≠tica monetaria no convencional de los pa√≠ses avanzados hacia Am√©rica Latina," Documentos CEDE, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, number 19424, Jul.
• Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Gilberto Ram�rez & Lya Paola Sierra, 2021, "Un análisis regional de los choques monetarios y externos: el caso del Valle del Cauca en Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, volume 40, issue 82, pages 57-81.
• Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez & C�sar Anzola-Bravo & Luisa Fernanda Ball�n-Rubio & Valeria Bejarano-Salcedo & Eliana Gonz�lez-Molano & Anderson Grajales-Olarte & Alexander Guar�n-L�pez & Mar�a Alejandra , 2021, "¿Qué nos dicen las encuestas sobre la formación de expectativas de inflación?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 100, pages 1-95.
• María Angélica Arbeláez & Miguel Ben�tez & Roberto Steiner & Oscar Valencia, 2021, "A fiscal rule to achieve debt sustainability in Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, volume 51, pages 13-35.
• Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2021, "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality," Dynare Working Papers, CEPREMAP, number 67, Mar.
• Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Mandelman, Federico & Zanetti, Francesco & Yu, Yang, 2021, "The ``Matthew Effect'' and Market Concentration: Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 15788, Feb.
• Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021, "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 15854, Feb.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stevanovic, Dalibor & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe, 2021, "Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 15867, Mar.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Carriero, Andrea & Mertens, Elmar, 2021, "Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 15964, Mar.
• Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Drautzburg, Thorsten & Guerron, Pablo, 2021, "Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 15979, Mar.
• Smets, Frank & Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2021, "Effects of State-Dependent Forward Guidance, Large-Scale Asset Purchases and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low-Interest-Rate Environment," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 16050, Apr.
• Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Werner, Alejandro & Zamarripa, Rene, 2021, "Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 16153, May.
• Kilian, Lutz & Nikos, Nomikos & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2021, "Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 16277, Jun.
• Giglio, Stefano & Dew-Becker, Ian, 2021, "Cross-sectional uncertainty and the business cycle: evidence from 40 years of options data," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 16306, Jun.
• , & Stein, Tobias, 2021, "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 16357, Sep.
• Schmidt, Sebastian & Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2021, "Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 16403, Jul.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Carriero, Andrea, 2021, "Nowcasting Tail Risk to Economic Activity at a Weekly Frequency," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 16496, Aug.
• Forbes, Kristin & Gagnon, Joseph & Collins, Christopher, 2021, "Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 16583, Sep.
• Franta, Michal, 2021, "The Likelihood Of Effective Lower Bound Events," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, volume 25, issue 8, pages 2058-2079, December.
• Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stevanović, Dalibor, 2021, "Can Machine Learning Catch The Covid-19 Recession?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, volume 256, issue , pages 71-109, May.
• Tolga Özden, 2021, "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers, DNB, number 714, May.
• Rémi Odry & Roman Mestre, 2021, "Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," EconomiX Working Papers, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX, number 2021-19.
• Valérie Mignon & Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Pierre-Alain Pionnier & Catherine Doz, 2021, "Les cycles économiques de la France : une datation de référence," EconomiX Working Papers, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX, number 2021-22.
• Valérie Mignon & Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021, "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," EconomiX Working Papers, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX, number 2021-23.
• Rubene, Ieva & Koester, Gerrit, 2021, "Recent dynamics in energy inflation: the role of base effects and taxes," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, volume 3.
• Meyler, Aidan & Moreno, Marta Saez & Arioli, Rodolfo & Fischer, Franziska, 2021, "Results of a special survey of professional forecasters on the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, volume 7.
• Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Jančoková, Martina & Lampe, Max & Sorvillo, Bianca & Stular, Anze & Volk, Matjaz, 2021, "Policies in support of lending following the coronavirus (COVID 19) pandemic," Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 257, May.
• Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Giglio, Carla & Groß, Johannes & Lampe, Max & Sarychev, Andrei & Tarbé, Matthieu & Vagliano, Gianluca & Volk, Matjaz, 2021, "The growth-at-risk perspective on the system-wide impact of Basel III finalisation in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 258, Jul.
• Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021, "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 264, Sep.
• Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Musso, Alberto & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021, "Evolution of the ECB’s analytical framework," Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 277, Sep.
• Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021, "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 280, Sep.
• Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2021, "Quantifying financial stability risks for monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, volume 115.
• Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Schreiner, Josef, 2021, "Nowcasting in a pandemic using non-parametric mixed frequency VARs," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 2510, Jan.
• Le Mezo, Helena & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo, 2021, "Text-based recession probabilities," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 2516, Jan.
• Tóth, Máté, 2021, "A multivariate unobserved components model to estimate potential output in the euro area: a production function based approach," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 2523, Feb.
• Bańbura, Marta & Brenna, Federica & Paredes, Joan & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2021, "Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 2543, May.
• Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2021, "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 2558, May.
• Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021, "Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 2572, Jul.
• Korobilis, Dimitris & Landau, Bettina & Musso, Alberto & Phella, Anthoulla, 2021, "The time-varying evolution of inflation risks," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 2600, Oct.
• Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021, "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 2604, Oct.
• Marozzi, Armando, 2021, "The ECB's tracker: nowcasting the press conferences of the ECB," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 2609, Oct.
• Saiz, Lorena & Ashwin, Julian & Kalamara, Eleni, 2021, "Nowcasting euro area GDP with news sentiment: a tale of two crises," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 2616, Nov.
• Sokol, Andrej, 2021, "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 2624, Dec.
• Mai Wagdy ElHodaiby & Ahmed Elsamman, 2021, "The Relation between Central Bank Independence and Inflation Rate in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis during 1998-2019," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, volume 11, issue 1, pages 114-125.
• Doan Van Dinh, 2021, "Impact of Crude Oil Price on Countries and Vietnam s GDP Growth: Variance Decomposition Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, volume 11, issue 3, pages 110-120.
• Xenia Tabachkova, 2021, "Consequences of Oil Supply and Demand on the Electricity Market: Coronavirus Effect," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, volume 11, issue 4, pages 573-580.
• Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin & Nikolay Petrovich Pilnik & Ivan Pavlovich Stankevich, 2021, "Modelling Five Variables BVAR for Economic Policies and Growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005 2020," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, volume 11, issue 5, pages 510-518.
• Thu, Le Ha & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto, 2021, "Forecasting macroeconomic variables in emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, volume 77, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101403.
• Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021, "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 123, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2020.104045.
• Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2021, "Measuring the effects of expectations shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 124, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104075.
• Phaneuf, Louis & Victor, Jean Gardy, 2021, "On time-dependent nominal contracting models with positive trend inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 124, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104076.
• Drautzburg, Thorsten & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo, 2021, "Bargaining shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 127, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104121.
• Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021, "Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 132, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104205.
• Goldstein, Nathan & Zilberfarb, Ben-Zion, 2021, "Do forecasters really care about consensus?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 100, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105523.
• Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021, "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 101, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105531.
• Garzon, Antonio J. & Hierro, Luis A., 2021, "Asymmetries in the transmission of oil price shocks to inflation in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 105, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105665.
• Váry, Miklós, 2021, "The long-run real effects of monetary shocks: Lessons from a hybrid post-Keynesian-DSGE-agent-based menu cost model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 105, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105674.
• Shang, Yuhuang & Zheng, Tingguo, 2021, "Mixed-frequency SV model for stock volatility and macroeconomics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 95, issue C, pages 462-472, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.03.013.
• Lin, Yu & Yan, Yan & Xu, Jiali & Liao, Ying & Ma, Feng, 2021, "Forecasting stock index price using the CEEMDAN-LSTM model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 57, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101421.
• Suh, Sangwon & Kim, Daehwan, 2021, "Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 58, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101535.
• Uluceviz, Erhan & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2021, "Measuring real–financial connectedness in the U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 58, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101554.
• Lyu, Yifei & Nie, Jun & Yang, Shu-Kuei X., 2021, "Forecasting US economic growth in downturns using cross-country data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 198, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109668.
• Hartley, Jonathan S., 2021, "Friedman’s plucking model: New international evidence from Maddison Project data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 199, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109724.
• Aguilar, Pablo & Ghirelli, Corinna & Pacce, Matías & Urtasun, Alberto, 2021, "Can news help measure economic sentiment? An application in COVID-19 times," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 199, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109730.
• An, Zidong & Liu, Dingqian & Wu, Yuzheng, 2021, "Expectation formation following pandemic events," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 200, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109739.
• Hayashi, Fumio & Tachi, Yuta, 2021, "The nowcast revision analysis extended," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 209, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110112.
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• Bernstein, Joshua & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2021, "Cyclical net entry and exit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 136, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103752.
• Burzyński, Michał & Machado, Joël & Aalto, Atte & Beine, Michel & Goncalves, Jorge & Haas, Tom & Kemp, Françoise & Magni, Stefano & Mombaerts, Laurent & Picard, Pierre & Proverbio, Daniele & Skupin, A, 2021, "COVID-19 crisis management in Luxembourg: Insights from an epidemionomic approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, volume 43, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101051.
• Boufateh, Talel & Saadaoui, Zied, 2021, "The time-varying responses of financial intermediation and inflation to oil supply and demand shocks in the US: Evidence from Bayesian TVP-SVAR-SV approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 102, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105535.
• Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2021, "An investigation of log prices in the U.S. Pacific Northwest," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, volume 126, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102437.
• Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021, "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, volume 132, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103512.
• Hillebrand, Eric & Lukas, Manuel & Wei, Wei, 2021, "Bagging weak predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 37, issue 1, pages 237-254, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.05.002.
• Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021, "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 37, issue 2, pages 971-999, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.11.001.
• Adams, Patrick A. & Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2021, "Forecasting macroeconomic risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 37, issue 3, pages 1173-1191, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.01.003.
• Chan, Joshua C.C., 2021, "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 37, issue 3, pages 1212-1226, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.01.002.
• Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2021, "Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 37, issue 3, pages 1247-1260, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.007.
• Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021, "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 37, issue 3, pages 1276-1295, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.008.
• Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Leroux, Maxime & Stevanovic, Dalibor & Surprenant, Stéphane, 2021, "Macroeconomic data transformations matter," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 37, issue 4, pages 1338-1354, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.05.005.
• Proietti, Tommaso & Giovannelli, Alessandro & Ricchi, Ottavio & Citton, Ambra & Tegami, Christían & Tinti, Cristina, 2021, "Nowcasting GDP and its components in a data-rich environment: The merits of the indirect approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 37, issue 4, pages 1376-1398, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.04.003.
• Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021, "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 187, issue C, pages 290-314, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.037.
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• Alter, Adrian & Mahoney, Elizabeth M., 2021, "Local house-price vulnerability: Evidence from the U.S. and Canada," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, volume 54, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2021.101791.
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• Biolsi, Christopher, 2021, "Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 69, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103321.
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• Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2021, "Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, volume 43, issue 2, pages 337-349, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.12.001.
• Cieślik, Andrzej & Turgut, Mehmet Burak, 2021, "Fiscal harmonization in view of the Euro adoption: Economic implications for Poland," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, volume 43, issue 2, pages 394-415, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.05.001.
• Nakhli, Seyyed Reza & Rafat, Monireh & Dastjerdi, Rasul Bakhshi & Rafei, Meysam, 2021, "Oil sanctions and their transmission channels in the Iranian economy: A DSGE model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, volume 70, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101963.
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• Larsen, Vegard H. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zhulanova, Julia, 2021, "News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, volume 117, issue C, pages 507-520, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.004.
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• Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Eric, 2021, "Structural vector error correction modelling of Bitcoin price," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 80, issue C, pages 170-178, DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2021.02.010.
• Liu, Guangling & Molise, Thabang, 2021, "The effectiveness of the counter-cyclical loan-to-value regulation: Generic versus sector-specific rules," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, volume 72, issue C, pages 270-288, DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.12.002.
• Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021, "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, volume 75, issue C, pages 178-196, DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2021.04.019.
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• Ilek, Alex, 2021, "Are monetary surprises effective? The view of professional forecasters in Israel," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, volume 76, issue C, pages 516-530, DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2021.06.009.
• Aleksandar Vasilev, 2021, "Indeterminacy with preferences featuring multiplicative habits in consumption," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, volume 64, issue 3, pages 1-16.
• Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Federico Mandelman & Yang Yu & Francesco Zanetti, 2021, "The "Matthew effect" and market concentration: Search complementarities and monopsony power," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2021-22, Feb.
• James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021, "UK inflation forecasts since the thirteenth century," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2021-32, Mar.
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• Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre‐Alain Pionnier, 2021, "Les cycles économiques de la France : une datation de référence," Thema Working Papers, THEMA (Théorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), CY Cergy-Paris University, ESSEC and CNRS, number 2021-13.
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• Violaine Faubert, 2021, "Is the Irish Phillips Curve broken?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, volume 52, issue 4, pages 397-437.
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• Vojtech Molnar, 2021, "Price Level Targeting with Imperfect Rationality: A Heuristic Approach," Working Papers IES, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, number 2021/07, Mar, revised Mar 2021.
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• Kevin X.D. Huang & Shuangjian Li & Guoqiang Tian, 2021, "Chinese Economy under the New ¡°Dual Circulation¡± Strategy: Challenges and Opportunities¡ªA Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2020¨C2021)," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, volume 16, issue 1, pages 1-29, March.
• Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Federico S. Mandelman & Yang Yu & Francesco Zanetti, 2021, "The "Matthew Effect" and Market Concentration: Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power," FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, number 2021-4, Jan, DOI: 10.29338/wp2021-04.
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• Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021, "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, number 21-09, Mar, DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202109.
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• Tsukhlo Sergey, 2021, "Russian industrial sector in 2020: (based on surveys’ findings)," Published Papers, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, number ppaper-2021-1125, revised 2021.
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• Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021, "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Econometrics, MDPI, volume 9, issue 4, pages 1-20, October.
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• Hager Ben Romdhane, 2021, "Nowcasting in Tunisia using large datasets and mixed frequency models," IHEID Working Papers, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, number 11-2021, Jun.
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• Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021, "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main), HAL, number hal-03373425, Jan.
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