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Data outliers and Bayesian VARs in the Euro Area

Author

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  • Luis J. Álvarez

    (Banco de España)

  • Florens Odendahl

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

We propose a method to adjust for data outliers in Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), which allows for different outlier magnitudes across variables and rescales the reduced form error terms. We use the method to document several facts about the effect of outliers on estimation and out-of-sample forecasting results using euro area macroeconomic data. First, the COVID-19 pandemic led to large swings in macroeconomic data that distort the BVAR estimation results. Second, these swings can be addressed by rescaling the shocks’ variance. Third, taking into account outliers before 2020 leads to mild improvements in the point forecasts of BVARs for some variables and horizons. However, the density forecast performance considerably deteriorates. Therefore, we recommend taking into account outliers only on pre-specified dates around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis J. Álvarez & Florens Odendahl, 2022. "Data outliers and Bayesian VARs in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2239, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2239
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/23552
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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/22/Files/dt2239e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2024. "Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1403-1417, September.
    2. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era," Working Papers 20-32R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 05 Jan 2022.
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    Cited by:

    1. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2024. "Lessons from nowcasting GDP across the world," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 8, pages 187-217, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Morão, Hugo, 2024. "An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Diakonova, Marina & Ghirelli, Corinna & Molina, Luis & Pérez, Javier J., 2023. "The economic impact of conflict-related and policy uncertainty shocks: The case of Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 69-90.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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