Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

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Top JEL
/ E: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
/ / E3: Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
/ / / E37: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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This JEL code is mentioned in the following RePEc Biblio entries:

1. Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
2. Nowcasting

2017

• Alain Galli & Christian Hepenstrick & Rolf Scheufele, 2017, "Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, number 2017-02.
• Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2017, "Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, number 2017-12.
• Roberto Meurer & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2017, "Heterogeneity in Monthly Inflation Expectations in Brazil: Evidence with Aggregate Data from the Focus Survey," Working Papers, Department of Economics, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), number 2017_08, Jun.
• Martyna Marczak & Víctor Gómez, 2017, "Monthly US business cycle indicators: a new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 52, issue 4, pages 1379-1408, June, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1108-2.
• Jonas Dovern & Matthias Hartmann, 2017, "Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 63-77, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1137-x.
• Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017, "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 79-99, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1151-z.
• Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler & Silvia Maria Matos, 2017, "Applying a microfounded-forecasting approach to predict Brazilian inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 137-163, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1163-8.
• Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2017, "Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 183-194, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1200-7.
• Graham Elliott, 2017, "Forecast combination when outcomes are difficult to predict," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 7-20, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1253-2.
• Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017, "A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 217-234, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1254-1.
• Sebastian Ankargren & Mårten Bjellerup & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2017, "The importance of the financial system for the real economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 4, pages 1553-1586, December, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1175-4.
• Sami Oinonen & Maritta Paloviita, 2017, "How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), volume 13, issue 2, pages 139-163, November, DOI: 10.1007/s41549-017-0017-6.
• Philippe De Donder & John E. Roemer, 2017, "The dynamics of capital accumulation in the US: simulations after piketty," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, volume 15, issue 2, pages 121-141, June, DOI: 10.1007/s10888-016-9346-2.
• Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2017, "Boosting and regional economic forecasting: the case of Germany," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, volume 10, issue 2, pages 161-175, July, DOI: 10.1007/s12076-016-0179-1.
• James Morley & Irina B Panovska, 2017, "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?," Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales, number 2016-12A, Jan.
• Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2017, "Why has the US economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Working Papers, University of Sydney, School of Economics, number 2017-14, Nov, revised Jun 2019.
• Jari Hännikäinen, 2017, "The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: evidence from a data-rich environment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 24, issue 8, pages 527-535, May, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1208347.
• Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2017, "An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, volume 17, issue 1, pages 31-38.
• H. Murat Ozbilgin, 2017, "Forecasting the Growth Cycles of the Turkish Economy," Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, number 1715.
• Zhang Chengsi & Xingchen Ji & Wensheng Dai, 2017, "Global Output Gap and Domestic Inflation in China," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, volume 64, issue 1, pages 17-30.
• Marcin Bielecki, 2017, "Business cycles, innovation and growth: welfare analysis," Working Papers, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, number 2017-19.
• Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017, "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers, WIFO, number 542, Oct.
• Anders Warne & Günter Coenen & Kai Christoffel, 2017, "Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State‐Space Models with Applications to DSGE, DSGE‐VAR, and VAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 1, pages 103-119, January.
• Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2017, "Euromind‐ D : A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 3, pages 683-703, April.
• Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017, "Density Forecasts With Midas Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 4, pages 783-801, June.
• Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2017, "The Informational Content of the Term Spread in Forecasting the US Inflation Rate: A Nonlinear Approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 36, issue 2, pages 109-121, March.
• Harri Ponka, 2017, "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 36, issue 5, pages 469-482, August.
• Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2017, "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation: A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 36, issue 5, pages 515-540, August.
• Rangan Gupta & Eric Olson & Mark E. Wohar, 2017, "Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 36, issue 6, pages 640-650, September.
• Michael K Andersson & Ted Aranki & André Reslow, 2017, "Adjusting for information content when comparing forecast performance," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 36, issue 7, pages 784-794, November.
• Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017, "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 49, issue 5, pages 931-968, August, DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12401.
• Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2017, "The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 49, issue 8, pages 1747-1776, December, DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12430.
• Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & Saurabh Mishra & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, 2017, "Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies," Working papers, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute, number 2017rwp-111, Sep.
• Itkonen, Juha & Juvonen, Petteri, 2017, "Nowcasting the Finnish economy with a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model," BoF Economics Review, Bank of Finland, number 6/2017.
• Ambrocio, Gene, 2017, "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 37/2017.
• Caballero, Julián & Fernández, Andrés, 2017, "On corporate borrowing, credit spreads and economic activity in emerging economies: An empirical investigation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 31/2017.
• Ambrocio, Gene, 2017, "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 37/2017.
• Diebold, Francis X. & Schorfheide, Frank & Shin, Minchul, 2017, "Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility," CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), number 577.
• Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2017, "Business Cycle Accounting: Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2014)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, volume 14, issue 2, pages 197-219.
• Simionescu, Mihaela & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2017, "Big Data and Unemployment Analysis," GLO Discussion Paper Series, Global Labor Organization (GLO), number 81.
• Simionescu, Mihaela, 2017, "Prediction intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania. A Bayesian approach," GLO Discussion Paper Series, Global Labor Organization (GLO), number 82.
• Doll, Jens & Rosenthal, Beatrice & Volkenand, Jonas & Hamella, Sandra, 2017, "Nowcasting des deutschen BIP," Weidener Diskussionspapiere, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH), number 59.
• Heinisch, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017, "Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? German evidence," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), number 5/2017.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drygalla, Andrej & Heinisch, Katja & Kämpfe, Martina & Kiesel, Konstantin & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit & Wieschemeyer, Matthi, 2017, "Konjunktur aktuell: Beschäftigungsboom in Deutschland - aber gesamtwirtschaftlich keine Überhitzung," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 5, issue 1, pages 4-29.
• Bershadskyy, Dmitri & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drygalla, Andrej & Heinisch, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Lindner, Axel & Wieschemeyer, Matthias & Zeddies, Götz, 2017, "Die mittelfristige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland für die Jahre 2017 bis 2022 und finanzpolitische Optionen einer neuen Bundesregierung," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 5, issue 5, pages 138-145.
• Heilemann, Ullrich & Müller, Karsten, 2017, "Wenig Unterschiede: Zur Treffsicherheit internationaler Prognosen und Prognostiker," Working Papers, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science, number 149.
• Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Waldhof, Gaby, 2017, "Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts. Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters," Working Papers, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin, number 2, DOI: 10.18452/18132.
• Prüser, Jan, 2017, "Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching," Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, number 710, DOI: 10.4419/86788828.
• Li, Xinjue & Zbonakova, Lenka & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2017, "Penalized adaptive method in forecasting with large information set and structure change," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2017-023.
• Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2017, "The Stabilizing Role of Forward Guidance: A Macro Experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 168063.
• Heinrich, Markus & Carstensen, Kai & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik, 2017, "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 168206.

2016

• Hirokazu Mizobata & Hiroki Toyoda, 2016, "Business Cycles, Asset Prices, and the Frictions of Capital and Labor," KIER Working Papers, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research, number 953, Nov.
• Carlos Diaz Vela, 2016, "Extracting the Information Shocks from the Bank of England Inflation Density Forecasts," Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, number 16/13.
• Bührig, Pascal & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2016, "Forecasting revisions of German industrial production," Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 43524.
• Lehmann, R. & Wohlrabe, K., 2016, "Looking into the black box of boosting: the case of Germany," Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 43525.
• Faisal Rachman, 2016, "Is Inflation Target Announced by Bank Indonesia the Most Accurate Inflation Forecast?," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, volume 62, pages 98-120, August.
• Christian Gayer & Alessandro Girardi & Andreas Reuter, 2016, "Replacing Judgment by Statistics: Constructing Consumer Confidence Indicators on the basis of Data-driven Techniques. The Case of the Euro Area," Working Papers LuissLab, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli, number 16125.
• Alinezhad, Alireza & Nasiri Sadeghloo, Mohammad Javad, 2016, "Application of Malmquist Index in Two-Stage DEA for Measurement of Productivity Growth," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, volume 11, issue 1, pages 31-51, January.
• Rasekhi, Saeed & Rastgar, Majid, 2016, "Policy Time-Inconsistency: A Comparison of Managed Floating Exchange Rate and Controlled Exchange Rate Regimes," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, volume 11, issue 4, pages 351-373, October.
• Aleksandra Hałka & Karol Szafranek, 2016, "Whose Inflation Is It Anyway? Inflation Spillovers Between the Euro Area and Small Open Economies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 54, issue 2, pages 109-132, March, DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2015.1126788.
• Alice, Albonico & Alessia, Paccagnini & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016, "In search of the Euro Area Fiscal Stance," Working Papers, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, number 324, Feb, revised 24 Feb 2016.
• Alice, Albonico & Alessia, Paccagnini & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016, "PIIGS in the Euro Area. An Empirical DSGE Model," Working Papers, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, number 331, Mar, revised 11 Mar 2016.
• Brian Micallef, 2016, "Property price misalignment with fundamentals in Malta," CBM Working Papers, Central Bank of Malta, number WP/03/2016.
• Rueben Ellul, 2016, "A real-time measure of business conditions in Malta," CBM Working Papers, Central Bank of Malta, number WP/04/2016.
• László Békési & Csaba Köber & Henrik Kucsera & Tímea Várnai & Balázs Világi, 2016, "The macroeconomic forecasting model of the MNB," MNB Working Papers, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), number 2016/4.
• Diana Gabrielyan, 2016, "Forecasting Inflation Using The Phillips Curve: Evidence From Swedish Data," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia), number 100.
• National Bank of Belgium, 2016, "Economic projections for Belgium – Autumn 2016," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 7-30, December.
• National Bank of Belgium, 2016, "Economic projections for Belgium – Spring 2016," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 7-28, June.
• Christophe Piette, 2016, "Predicting Belgium’s GDP using targeted bridge models," Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium, number 290, Jan.
• Łukasz Lenart & Agnieszka Leszczyńska-Paczesna, 2016, "Do market prices improve the accuracy of inflation forecasting in Poland? A disaggregated approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, volume 47, issue 5, pages 365-394.
• Adrienne Csizmady & József Hegedüs, 2016, "Hungarian Mortgage Rescue Programs 2009-2016," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, Narodowy Bank Polski, chapter 1, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, "Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition".
• Jacek Łaszek & Hanna Augustyniak & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2016, "FX mortgages, housing boom and financial stability – a case study for Poland (2005-2015)," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, Narodowy Bank Polski, chapter 3, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, "Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition".
• Aleksandra Hałka & Jacek Kotłowski, 2016, "Global or domestic? Which shocks drive inflation in European small open economies?," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 232.
• Halina Kowalczyk & Ewa Stanisławska, 2016, "Are experts’ probabilistic forecasts similar to the NBP projections?," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 238.
• Paweł Pońsko & Bartosz Rybaczyk, 2016, "Fan chart – a tool for NBP’s monetary policy making," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 241.
• James D. Hamilton, 2016, "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 21863, Jan.
• Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal, 2016, "Solution Methods for Models with Rare Disasters," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 21997, Feb.
• Dario Caldara & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016, "The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 22058, Mar.
• Mario J. Crucini & Gregor W. Smith, 2016, "Distance and Time Effects in Swedish Commodity Prices, 1732–1914," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 22175, Apr.
• Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016, "The Evolution of U.S. Monetary Policy: 2000 - 2007," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 22693, Sep.
• Ball, Laurence & Chari, Anusha & Mishra, Prachi, 2016, "Understanding Inflation in India," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, volume 12, issue 1, pages 1-45.
• Zouhair Aït Benhamou, 2016, "Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: Regional and Global Factors," Research papers & Policy papers on Economic Trends and Policies, Policy Center for the New South, number 1601, Mar.
• Patrice Ollivaud & Pierre-Alain Pionnier & Elena Rusticelli & Cyrille Schwellnus & Seung-Hee Koh, 2016, "Forecasting GDP during and after the Great Recession: A contest between small-scale bridge and large-scale dynamic factor models," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 1313, Jul, DOI: 10.1787/5jlv2jj4mw40-en.
• David Havrlant & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2016, "On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-72.
• Arturo Leonardo Vásquez Cordano & Abdel M. Zellou, 2016, "Where are natural gas prices heading, and which are the environmental consequences for Latin America?," Working Papers, Osinergmin, Gerencia de Políticas y Análisis Económico, number 35, May.
• Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016, "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, volume 31, issue 85, pages 107-152.
• Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016, "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, volume 131, issue 1, pages 53-87.
• Lorenza Rossi & Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2016, "Firms’ Dynamics and Business Cycle: New Disaggregated Data," DEM Working Papers Series, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management, number 123, May.
• Fayyaz Hussain & Zafar Hayat, 2016, "Do Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation Forecastability: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, volume 55, issue 3, pages 211-225.
• Papa, Javier & et., al., 2016, "Forecasting Trade Deflators In Ireland," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 116754, Dec, revised Dec 2016.
• Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2016, "The Evasive Predictive Ability of Core Inflation," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 68704, Jan.
• Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2016, "Digital DNA of economy of scale and scope," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 68929, Jan.
• Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2016, "Precise measurement of macroeconomic variables in time domain using three dimensional wave diagrams," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 69576, Feb.
• Benchimol, Jonathan, 2016, "Money and monetary policy in Israel during the last decade," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 69587, Feb.
• Gerunov, Anton, 2016, "Automating Analytics: Forecasting Time Series in Economics and Business," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 71010, Apr.
• Accolley, Delali, 2016, "Physical and Human Capital over the Business Cycle," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 71017, Apr.
• Hännikäinen, Jari, 2016, "The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: Evidence from a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 71432, May.
• Shirai, Daichi, 2016, "Persistence and Amplification of Financial Frictions," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 72187, Jun.
• Belanger, Gilles, 2016, "Inequality Causes Recessions: A Fallout from Ramsey's Conjecture," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 72335, Jul.
• Fioramanti, Marco, 2016, "Potential Output, Output Gap and Fiscal Stance: is the EC estimation of the NAWRU too sensitive to be reliable?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 73762, Apr, revised Sep 2016.
• Hecq, Alain & Telg, Sean & Lieb, Lenard, 2016, "Do Seasonal Adjustments Induce Noncausal Dynamics in Inflation Rates?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 74922, Nov, revised 04 Nov 2016.
• Ellul, Reuben, 2016, "A real-time measure of business conditions in Malta," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 75057, Sep.
• Colasante, Annarita & Alfarano, Simone & Camacho-Cuena, Eva & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016, "Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 75621.
• Pinshi, Christian, 2016, "Une perspective macroprudentielle pour la stabilité financière
  [A macroprudential perspective on financial stability]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 77905, Jun, revised 28 Feb 2017.
• Sen Gupta, Abhijit & Bhattacharya, Rudrani, 2016, "What Role Did Rising Demand Play in Driving Food Prices Up?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 79704, revised 2017.
• Barrera Chaupis, Carlos, 2016, "Expectations' Dispersion & Convergence towards Central Banks' IR forecasts: Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru & United Kingdom, 2004-2014," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 85410, Jul, revised 12 Dec 2016.
• Shahid, Muhammad & Qayyum, Abdul & Shahid Malik, Waseem, 2016, "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in Pakistan Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 85549, revised 2017.
• Mansur, Alfan, 2016, "The Impact of a Loss of Confidence in Emerging Market Economies to the World Economy: A Simulation with the G-Cubed Model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 93870, Dec, revised 10 Nov 2017.
• Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Mark E. Wohar, 2016, "The Impact of Oil Shocks in a Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for South Africa," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201652, Jun.
• Sergey Ivashchenko & Rangan Gupta, 2016, "Near-Rational Expectations: How Far are Surveys from Rationality?," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201655, Jul.
• Sergey Ivashchenko & Rangan Gupta, 2016, "Forecasting using a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201659, Aug.
• Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2016, "Forecasting US GNP Growth: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201667, Sep.
• Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2016, "Forecasting the Probability of Recessions in South Africa: The Role of Decomposed Term-Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201680, Nov.
• Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016, "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201685, Nov.
• Emilie Jašová & Klára Čermáková & Božena Kadeřábková & Pavel Procházka, 2016, "Působení institucionálních faktorů na strukturální a cyklickou nezaměstnanost v zemích Visegrádské skupiny
  [Influence of Institutional Factors on Structural and Cyclical Unemployment in the Countries of the Visegrad Group]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2016, issue 1, pages 34-50, DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1053.
• Damian Stelmasiak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2016, "Forecasting the Polish Inflation Using Bayesian VAR Models with Seasonality," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, volume 8, issue 1, pages 21-42, March.
• Sánchez, Elmer, 2016, "Mortgage Credit: Lending and Borrowing Constraints in a DSGE Framework," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, number 2016-009, Sep.
• Geoffrey Meen & Alexander Mihailov & Yehui Wang, 2016, "Endogenous UK Housing Cycles and the Risk Premium: Understanding the Next Housing Crisis," Economics Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, University of Reading, number em-dp2016-02, Apr.
• Jinke Li & Geoffrey Meen, 2016, "Agent Based Models, Housing Fluctuations and the Role of Heterogeneous Expectations," Economics Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, University of Reading, number em-dp2016-09, Jul.
• Steffen Heinig & Anupam Nanda & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2016, "Which Sentiment Indicators Matter? An Analysis of the European Commercial Real Estate Market," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance, Henley Business School, University of Reading, number icma-dp2016-04, Jun.
• Michael Clements, 2016, "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance, Henley Business School, University of Reading, number icma-dp2016-08, Oct.
• Malik Shukayev & Argyn Toktamyssov, 2016, "Implementing Cross-Border Interbank Lending in BoC-GEM-FIN," Working Papers, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, number 2016-15, Sep.
• Mario J. Crucini & Gregor W. Smith, 2016, "Early Globalization and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Sweden, 1732-1914," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, volume 20, issue 4, pages 427-445, DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2016.20.4.316.
• Hassan Dargahi & Mehdi Hadian, 2016, "Evaluation of Fiscal and Monetary Shocks with Emphasis on the Interactions of Banking System Balance Sheet and the Real Sector of Iran's Economy: A DSGE Approach," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, volume 3, issue 1, pages 1-28.
• Hasan Farazmand & Seyed Aziz Arman & Seyed Morteza Afghah & Mojtaba Ghorbannezhad, 2016, "The Effects of Energy Price Reform on Iranian Economy: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach (DSGE)," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, volume 3, issue 2, pages 49-76.
• Adél Bosch & Cobus Vermeulen & Fanie Joubert & Jannie Rossouw, 2016, "Can currency in circulation predict South African economic activity?," ERSA Working Paper Series, Economic Research Southern Africa, number 582, Feb.
• Emilie Ja?ová, 2016, "The effect of the psychological factor among companies onto the NAIRU and economic cycle on the labour market," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, number 5307026, Nov.
• Bozena Kaderabkova, 2016, "Development of the economic cycle on labour market in the national economy and industry of the Czech Republi," Proceedings of Business and Management Conferences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, number 4407037, Nov.
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• Rafal Zbyrowski, 2016, "The Application of the Shepard’s Interpolation for a Property Valuation (Zastosowanie metody Sheparda do szacowania nieruchomosci)," Research Reports, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, volume 2, issue 22, pages 249-256.
• Aleksandar Vasilev, 2016, "Business Cycle Accounting: Bulgaria after the Introduction of the Currency Board Arrangement (1999-2014)," Bulgarian Economic Papers, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria // Center for Economic Theories and Policies at Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, number bep-2016-11, Nov, revised Nov 2016.
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• Alfonso Arpaia & Aron Kiss & Balazs Palvolgyi & Alessandro Turrini, 2016, "Labour mobility and labour market adjustment in the EU," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), volume 5, issue 1, pages 1-21, December, DOI: 10.1186/s40176-016-0069-8.
• Peter Stalder, 2016, "Exchange Rate Shocks, Monetary Policy and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Housing Market: An Econometric Analysis for Switzerland," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), volume 12, issue 2, pages 217-251, December, DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0011-4.
• Cindrella Shah & Nilesh Ghonasgi, 2016, "Determinants and Forecast of Price Level in India: a VAR Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), volume 14, issue 1, pages 57-86, June, DOI: 10.1007/s40953-015-0019-y.
• Piotr Białowolski, 2016, "The influence of negative response style on survey-based household inflation expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, volume 50, issue 2, pages 509-528, March, DOI: 10.1007/s11135-015-0161-9.
• Maurizio Bovi, 2016, "The tale of two expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, volume 50, issue 6, pages 2677-2705, November, DOI: 10.1007/s11135-015-0283-0.
• Roland Döhrn, 2016, "Der Investitionsaufschwung blieb aus: das Prognosejahr 2015 im Rückblick
  [The Upswing in Capital Formation Failed to Appear: The Forecast for 2015 in Retrospective]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, volume 96, issue 4, pages 253-257, April, DOI: 10.1007/s10273-016-1966-4.
• Ferdinand Fichtner & Roland Döhrn & Oliver Holtemöller & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016, "Aufschwung bleibt moderat — Wirtschaftspolitik wenig wachstumsorientiert
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• Mattia Guerini & Alessio Moneta, 2016, "A Method for Agent-Based Models Validation," LEM Papers Series, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy, number 2016/16, Dec.
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• Jari H�nnik�inen, 2016, "The mortgage spread as a predictor of real-time economic activity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 23, issue 2, pages 112-116, February, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1054064.
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• Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C. C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2016, "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 35, issue 8-10, pages 1638-1665, December, DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2015.1092808.
• Makram El-Shagi & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2016, "Qual Var Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 19, issue 2, pages 293-321, November, DOI: 10.1016/S1514-0326(16)30012-5.
• Hännikäinen Jari, 2016, "The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: Evidence from a data-rich environment," Working Papers, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics, number 1606, Jun.
• Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016, "Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 15-084/III, Mar, revised 03 Jul 2017.
• Herman Stekler & Yongchen Zhao, 2016, "Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set," Working Papers, Towson University, Department of Economics, number 2016-15, Sep, revised Sep 2016.
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• Föllmi, Reto & Minsch, Rudolf & Schnell, Fabian, 2016, "What Determines Price Changes and the Distribution of Prices? Evidence from the Swiss CPI," Economics Working Paper Series, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, number 1610, Jul.
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• Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2016, "Interconnections Between Eurozone and us Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Panel Markov‐Switching VAR Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 31, issue 7, pages 1352-1370, November.
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• Jianu, Ionuț, 2016, "A comprehensive view on the manifestations of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks in Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, volume 0, issue 2 (607), pages 207-224.
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• Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drygalla, Andrej & Heinisch, Katja & Kämpfe, Martina & Kiesel, Konstantin & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit , 2016, "Konjunktur aktuell: Stabile Konjunktur in Deutschland trotz krisenhaften Umfelds," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 4, issue 1, pages 4-29.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drygalla, Andrej & Heinisch, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Kiesel, Konstantin & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit , 2016, "Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Binnenkonjunktur weiter im Aufwind," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 4, issue 2, pages 44-55.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Exß, Franziska & Holtemöller, Oliver & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Ludwig, Udo & Schultz, Birgit, 2016, "Ostdeutsche Wirtschaftspolitik muss umdenken: Nur mit Investitionen in Köpfe lässt sich weiter aufholen," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 4, issue 2, pages 56-85.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drygalla, Andrej & Heinisch, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Kiesel, Konstantin & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit , 2016, "Konjunktur aktuell: Konjunktur in Deutschland bleibt trotz sinkender Stimmung robust," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 4, issue 3, pages 92-107.
• Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drygalla, Andrej & Heinisch, Katja & Kämpfe, Martina & Kiesel, Konstantin & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit , 2016, "Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft weiter von Konsum und Bau beflügelt," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 4, issue 4, pages 112-154.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Heinisch, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Loose, Brigitte & Wieschemeyer, Matthias & Zeddies, Götz, 2016, "Die mittelfristige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland für die Jahre 2016 bis 2021," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 4, issue 4, pages 155-158.