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Toward Forecasting Global Economic Dynamics of the Forthcoming Years

Author

Listed:
  • Akaev, Askar A.

    () (Institute of Mathematical Investigations of Complex Systems at Lomonosov Moscow State University; Laboratory for Monitoring of Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks of the National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Korotayev, Andrey V

    () (Laboratory for Monitoring of Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks of the National Research University Higher School of Economics; International Laboratory for Demography and Human Capital of RANEPA)

Abstract

The paper analyzes the current state of the world economy and offers a short-term forecast of its development. Our analysis of log-periodic oscillations in the DJIA dynamics suggests that in the second half of 2017 the United States and other more developed countries could experience a new recession, due to the third phase of the lobal financial crisis. The economies of developing countries will continue their slowdown due to lower prices of raw commodities and the increased pressure of dollar debt load. The bottom of the slowdown in global economic growth is expected to be achieved in 2017–2018. Then we expect the start of a new acceleration of global economic growth at the upswing phase of the 6th Kondratieff cycle (2018–2050). This upswing will be driven by the development of the 6th technological paradigm whose core is being created by the NBIC-convergence (that is the convergence of nano-, bio-, information, and cognitive technologies). A speedy and steady withdrawal from the third phase of the global financial crisis requires cooperative action between developed and developing countries within G20 to stimulate global demand, world trade and a fair solution of the debt problem of developing countries. On the other hand, the governments of the technologically advanced countries should concentrate resources and efforts on the stimulation of the practical application of the NBIC-technologies because they form the core of the 6th technological paradigm and a new structure of the world economy. The period between 2017 and 2024 is the most favorable for the mastering and diffusion of the breakthrough innovations of the 6th Kondratieff wave.

Suggested Citation

  • Akaev, Askar A. & Korotayev, Andrey V, 2017. "Toward Forecasting Global Economic Dynamics of the Forthcoming Years," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 8-39, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1701
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
    2. Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1997. "Large financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 411-422.
    3. Johansen, Anders & Sornette, Didier, 2001. "Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 465-502.
    4. Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 1999. "Critical Crashes," Papers cond-mat/9901035, arXiv.org.
    5. Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1998. "A hierarchical model of financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 581-598.
    6. Masaaki Hirooka, 2006. "Innovation Dynamism and Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3234.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global economic dynamics; Kondratieff economic cycles; global crisis; financial crisis; forecast;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

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