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Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective

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  • Korotayev Andrey
  • Grinin Leonid

Abstract

The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term world-system dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers an historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World System framework; in particular, it studies the influence of the long wave dynamics on the changes of the world GDP growth rates during the last two centuries. Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kondratieff waves and Juglar cycles. The article is based on substantial statistical data, it extensively employs quantitative analysis, contains numerous tables and diagrams. On the basis of the proposed analysis it offers some forecasts of the world economic development in the next two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Korotayev Andrey & Grinin Leonid, 2013. "Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective," Macroeconomics emanova_elena.12760-kondr, Socionet.
  • Handle: RePEc:nos:wuwpma:emanova_elena.12760-kondratieffworldsyst
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    File URL: http://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/kondratieff_waves_in_the_world_system_perspective/
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    Cited by:

    1. Tausch, Arno, 2013. "The hallmarks of crisis. A new center-periphery perspective on long cycles," MPRA Paper 48356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andrey Korotayev & Leonid Grinin & Leonid Issaev & Alisa Shishkina & Evgeny Ivanov & Kira Meshcherina, 2017. "World Order Transformation and Sociopolitical Destabilization," HSE Working papers WP BRP 29/IR/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    3. Askar Akaev & Andrey Korotayev, 2016. "Global economic dynamics of the forthcoming years. A forecast," Papers 1612.09189, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic cycles; world system; Kondratieff waves; Juglar cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • B1 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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