IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbp/nbpmis/238.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are experts’ probabilistic forecasts similar to the NBP projections?

Author

Listed:
  • Halina Kowalczyk

    ()

  • Ewa Stanisławska

    ()

Abstract

We assess similarity of the Polish central bank’s forecasts published in Inflation Reports and economic experts’ forecasts (from NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters), an important issue in monetary policy. Contrary to other studies which use point forecasts, we are interested is comparing whole forecasts’ distributions. We are especially interested whether the SPF experts mirror the NBP projections. For this purpose, we propose employing methods based on distance between distributions. Unfortunately, substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, as well as short and atypical period analyzed, limit drawing firm conclusions with this respect.

Suggested Citation

  • Halina Kowalczyk & Ewa Stanisławska, 2016. "Are experts’ probabilistic forecasts similar to the NBP projections?," NBP Working Papers 238, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:238
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/238_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    survey data; fan charts; probabilistic forecasts; inflation forecasts; GDP growth forecasts; distribution similarity;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:238. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zbigniew Polański). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.