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Are experts’ probabilistic forecasts similar to the NBP projections?

Author

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  • Halina Kowalczyk
  • Ewa Stanisławska

Abstract

We assess similarity of the Polish central bank’s forecasts published in Inflation Reports and economic experts’ forecasts (from NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters), an important issue in monetary policy. Contrary to other studies which use point forecasts, we are interested is comparing whole forecasts’ distributions. We are especially interested whether the SPF experts mirror the NBP projections. For this purpose, we propose employing methods based on distance between distributions. Unfortunately, substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, as well as short and atypical period analyzed, limit drawing firm conclusions with this respect.

Suggested Citation

  • Halina Kowalczyk & Ewa Stanisławska, 2016. "Are experts’ probabilistic forecasts similar to the NBP projections?," NBP Working Papers 238, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:238
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    File URL: https://static.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy-i-studia/238_en.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    survey data; fan charts; probabilistic forecasts; inflation forecasts; GDP growth forecasts; distribution similarity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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