Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

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Top JEL
/ E: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
/ / E3: Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
/ / / E37: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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This JEL code is mentioned in the following RePEc Biblio entries:

1. Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
2. Nowcasting

2013

• Andreas Karpf, 2013, "Herd behavior in consumer inflation expectations - Evidence from the French household survey," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 13054, Jul.
• Andreas Karpf, 2013, "Herd behavior in consumer inflation expectations - Evidence from the French household survey," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 13054r, Jul, revised Dec 2013.
• National Bank of Belgium, 2013, "Economic projections for Belgium – Autumn 2013," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 07-26, December.
• A. Stevens, 2013, "What inflation developments reveal about the Phillips curve: implications for monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 67-76, December.
• National Bank of Belgium, 2013, "Economic projections for Belgium – Spring 2013," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 07-26, June.
• Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013, "Housing market cycles – a disequilibrium model and its application to the primary housing market in Warsaw," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, Narodowy Bank Polski, chapter 11, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski, "Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis, 2013".
• Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2013, "Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 140.
• Hanna Augustyniak & Laszek Jacek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013, "Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market – interactions between the primary and the secondary market and multiplier effects," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 143.
• Grzegorz Grabek & Bohdan Klos, 2013, "Unemployment in the Estimated New Keynesian SoePL-2012 DSGE Model," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 144.
• Aleksandra Hałka & Jacek Kotłowski, 2013, "Does domestic output gap matter for inflation in a small open economy?," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 152.
• Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2013, "Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 18751, Feb.
• Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013, "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 19469, Sep.
• Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Maurizio Luisi, 2013, "Distilling the Macroeconomic News Flow," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 19650, Nov.
• Larisa Nicoleta POP & Flavius ROVINARU & Mihaela ROVINARU, 2013, "Assessing The Price Risk On The Romanian Agricultural Market: Analyses And Implications," Interdisciplinary Management Research, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, volume 9, pages 469-479.
• Radulescu Magdalena & Stanciu Radu, 2013, "The Euro Changeover Monetary Strategies of the European States that Joined the European Union: Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Czech Republic and PolandAbstract:One of the most ambitious projects undertak," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 2, pages 686-692, May.
• Núñez Tabales, Julia M. & Caridad y Ocerin, José María & Rey Carmona, Francisco J., 2013, "Artificial Neural Networks for Predicting Real Estate Prices || Redes neuronales artificiales para la predicción de precios inmobiliarios," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, volume 15, issue 1, pages 29-44, June.
• Bratu, Mihaela, 2013, "The Accuracy of Forecasts Made for the Structure of Consumer Basket: A Comparative Analysis between Euro Area and Romania || La exactitud de las predicciones para la estructura de cesta del consumo: u," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, volume 15, issue 1, pages 87-100, June.
• Firouzi Naeim, Peyman & Rahimzadeh, golnoush, 2013, "Inflation Skewness and Price Indexation," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 45968, Apr.
• Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Naderi, Esmaeil, 2013, "Does long memory matter in forecasting oil price volatility?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 46356, Apr.
• Chang, Chia-Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2013, "Are Forecast Updates Progressive?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 46387, Mar.
• Yashkir, Olga & Yashkir, Yuriy, 2013, "Monitoring of Credit Risk through the Cycle: Risk Indicators," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 46402, Mar.
• Ermişoğlu, Ergun & Akcelik, Yasin & Oduncu, Arif, 2013, "GDP Growth and Credit Data," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 46613, Mar.
• Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2013, "Sectoral gross value-added forecasts at the regional level: Is there any information gain?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 46765, May.
• Pakos, Michal, 2013, "Long-Run Risk and Hidden Growth Persistence," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 47217, Apr.
• Palma, Nuno, 2013, "Did Greenspan Open Pandora's Box? Testing the Taylor Hypothesis and Beyond," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 48197, Jan.
• Tausch, Arno, 2013, "The hallmarks of crisis. A new center-periphery perspective on long cycles," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 48356, Jul.
• Kossov, Vladimir & Kossova, Elena, 2013, "The normal price. The case of the retail price of diesel fuel," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 48667, Mar, revised 12 Oct 2013.
• Tabata, Katsushi & Kawaguchi, Yuichiro, 2013, "Real estate prices in Japan and Lewis turning point," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 49090, Aug.
• Kitov, Ivan & KItov, Oleg, 2013, "Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 49388, Aug.
• Petreski, Marjan, 2013, "Assessing the forecasting power of the leading composite index in Macedonia," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 49433, Sep.
• Doshchyn, Artur & Giommetti, Nicola, 2013, "Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 49617, Aug.
• Cruz, Christopher John & Mapa, Dennis, 2013, "An Early Warning System for Inflation in the Philippines Using Markov-Switching and Logistic Regression Models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 50078.
• Akande, Emmanuel, 2013, "Investment Shocks: Sources of Fluctuations in Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 52159, Apr.
• Everett, Craig R. & K., John, 2013, "Private Businesses Predict Limited Growth for 2013," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 55528, Jan.
• Marto, Ricardo, 2013, "Assessing the Impacts of Non-Ricardian Households in an Estimated New Keynesian DSGE Model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 55647, Dec.
• Gatt, William, 2013, "Forecasting inflation at the Central Bank of Malta�," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 56876, Mar.
• Jan Kodera & Quang Van Tran & Miloslav Vošvrda, 2013, "Complex Price Dynamics in the Modified Kaldorian Model," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2013, issue 3, pages 358-384, DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.457.
• Dana Kloudová, 2013, "Produkční mezera jako indikátor inflace - případ pro českou ekonomiku
  [Output Gap as Indicator of Inflation - Case for Czech Economy]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2013, issue 5, pages 639-652, DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.921.
• Gregor W. Smith, 2013, "Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, And Output Growth," Working Paper, Economics Department, Queen's University, number 1310, Oct.
• James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2013, "Measuring The Slowly Evolving Trend In Us Inflation With Professional Forecasts," Working Paper, Economics Department, Queen's University, number 1316, Oct.
• Winkelried, Diego, 2013, "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
• Arenas, Paúl & Morales, Daniel, 2013, "Are business tendency surveys useful to forecast private investment in Peru? A non-linear approach," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, number 2013-003, Apr.
• Jayant Menon & Thiam Hee Ng, 2013, "Impact of Eurozone Financial Shocks on Southeast Asian Economies," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration, Asian Development Bank, number 116, Aug.
• Agnieszka Pierzak, 2013, "Forecasting inflation in Poland using dynamic factor model," MF Working Papers, Ministry of Finance in Poland, number 17, Aug.
• Guohua He & Xinxin Chang, 2013, "The Dollar Standard and Stability of China’s Macroeconomy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 4, pages 186-204, December.
• Cecilia Frale & Stefano Grassi & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluigi Mazzi & Tommaso Proietti, 2013, "EuroMInd-C: a Disaggregate Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity for the Euro Area and member countries," CEIS Research Paper, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, number 287, Oct, revised 01 Oct 2013.
• E. Quaghebeur, 2013, "Learning and the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, number 13/851, Oct.
• Adnan Haider & Musleh-ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2013, "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," SBP Working Paper Series, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, number 65, Sep.
• Marco Huwiler & Daniel Kaufmann, 2013, "Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model," Economic Studies, Swiss National Bank, number 2013-07.
• Francis Bismans & Reynald Majetti, 2013, "Forecasting recessions using financial variables: the French case," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 44, issue 2, pages 419-433, April, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0550-z.
• Riccardo Cristadoro & Giuseppe Saporito & Fabrizio Venditti, 2013, "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 44, issue 3, pages 1065-1086, June, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0572-6.
• Piero Ferri, 2013, "Income distribution and debts in a fragile economy: market processes and macro constraints," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, volume 8, issue 2, pages 219-230, October, DOI: 10.1007/s11403-012-0091-8.
• Mark T. Bradshaw & Lawrence D. Brown & Kelly Huang, 2013, "Do sell-side analysts exhibit differential target price forecasting ability?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, volume 18, issue 4, pages 930-955, December, DOI: 10.1007/s11142-012-9216-5.
• Roland Döhrn, 2013, "Deutsche Konjunktur erholt sich — Ergebnisse der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose vom Frühjahr 2013," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, volume 93, issue 5, pages 323-327, May, DOI: 10.1007/s10273-013-1528-y.
• Oliver Bruttel, 2013, "Bevölkerungsstimmung als Indikator für das Wirtschaftswachstum," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, volume 93, issue 6, pages 390-395, June, DOI: 10.1007/s10273-013-1539-8.
• Christopher CRUZ & Claire MAPA, 2013, "An Early Warning System For Inflation In The Philippines Using Markov-Switching And Logistic Regression Models," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, volume 4, issue 2, pages 136-150.
• Miguel Belmonte & Gary Koop, 2013, "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time-Varying Parameter Regression Models," Working Papers, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics, number 1302, Jan.
• Gary Koop, 2013, "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics, number 1303, Jan.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Sung-Po Chen & Michael McAleer, 2013, "Globalization and knowledge spillover: international direct investment, exports and patents," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 22, issue 4, pages 329-352, June, DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2012.707412.
• Pierre Guérin & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013, "Markov-Switching MIDAS Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 31, issue 1, pages 45-56, January, DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2012.727721.
• Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2013, "A New Model of Trend Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 31, issue 1, pages 94-106, January, DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2012.741549.
• S. Boragan Aruoba & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013, "A Real Economic Activity Indicator for Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, volume 13, issue 1, pages 15-29.
• Mehmet Fatih Ekinci & Gazi Kabas & Enes Sunel, 2013, "End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, volume 13, issue 3, pages 61-71.
• Selen Baser & Hande Kucuk & Fethi Ogunc, 2013, "Inflation Dynamics in Turkey : In Pursuit of a Domestic Cost Measure," CBT Research Notes in Economics, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, number 1311.
• M. Fatih Ekinci & Gazi Kabas & Enes Sunel, 2013, "End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey," Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, number 1316.
• Ergun Ermisoglu & Yasin Akcelik & Arif Oduncu, 2013, "GDP Growth and Credit Data," Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, number 1327.
• Kurmas Akdogan, 2013, "Asymmetric Behaviour of Inflation around the Target in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Markets," Working Papers, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, number 1342.
• Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013, "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Phillips Curve Models with Non-Filtered Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 13-011/III, Jan.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013, "Are Forecast Updates Progressive?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 13-049/III, Mar.
• Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013, "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The Deco Matlab Toolbox," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 13-055/III, Apr, revised 16 Jan 2015.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013, "Analyzing Fixed-Event Forecast Revisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 13-057/III, Apr.
• Francisco Blasques, 2013, "Solution-Driven Specification of DSGE Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 13-062/III, Apr.
• Michael McAleer & Felix Chan & Les Oxley, 2013, "Modelling and Simulation: An Overview," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 13-069/III, May.
• Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013, "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models with Non-filtered Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 13-090/III, Jul.
• Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013, "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 13-142/III, Sep, revised 01 Nov 2014.
• Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2013, "Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models," DSSR Discussion Papers, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University, number 11, Jul.
• Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2013, "Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models," TERG Discussion Papers, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University, number 307, Jul.
• Nikolay Gospodinov & Serena Ng, 2013, "Commodity Prices, Convenience Yields, and Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, volume 95, issue 1, pages 206-219, March.
• Mark Setterfield & Shyam Gouri Suresh, 2013, "Did CNBC contribute to the Great Moderation or the Great Recession?," Working Papers, Trinity College, Department of Economics, number 1307, Mar.
• Mark Setterfield & Bill Gibson, 2013, "Real and financial crises: A multi-agent approach," Working Papers, Trinity College, Department of Economics, number 1309, Jul, revised Jul 2014.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013, "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, number 2013-14, revised Apr 2013.
• Michael McAleer & Les Oxley & Felix Chan, 2013, "Modelling and Simulation: An Overview," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, number 2013-16.
• Francis W. Ahking, 2013, "Measuring U.S. Business Cycles: A Comparison of Two Methods and Two Indicators of Economic Activities," Working papers, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, number 2013-10, May.
• Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013, "Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors," ERSA conference papers, European Regional Science Association, number ersa13p15, Nov.
• Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013, "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 28, issue 1, pages 82-101, January.
• Dimitris Korobilis, 2013, "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 28, issue 2, pages 204-230, March.
• Libero Monteforte & Gianluca Moretti, 2013, "Real‐Time Forecasts of Inflation: The Role of Financial Variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 1, pages 51-61, January.
• Nikolaos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2013, "Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 4, pages 299-306, July.
• Marie Bessec, 2013, "Short‐Term Forecasts of French GDP: A Dynamic Factor Model with Targeted Predictors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 6, pages 500-511, September.
• Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013, "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 45, issue 2‐3, pages 449-463, March, DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12009.
• Haavio, Markus & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013, "Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 35/2013.
• Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013, "Households' disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany," Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 27/2013.
• Wolters, Maik H., 2013, "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics, number 2013-03.
• Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2013, "Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: A real-time assessment," CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), number 2013/06.
• Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Victor, 2013, "Monthly US business cycle indicators: A new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," FZID Discussion Papers, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID), number 64-2013.
• Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Roffia, Barbara, 2013, "Testing for the existence of a bubble in the stock market," Wismar Discussion Papers, Hochschule Wismar, Wismar Business School, number 01/2013.
• Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2013, "Globalisation effect on inflation in the Great Moderation era: New evidence from G10 countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), volume 7, pages 1-32, DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-.
• Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2013, "An early warning system to predict speculative house price bubbles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), volume 7, pages 1-26, DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-.
• Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2013, "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), number 7/2013.
• Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Giesen, Sebastian & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit & , 2013, "Konjunktur aktuell: Konjunkturelle Flaute zum Jahresende 2012 – aber auch Anzeichen für eine mäßige Brise im neuen Jahr," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 1, issue 1, pages 3-32.
• Holtemöller, Oliver & Drechsel, Katja & Loose, Brigitte & Zeddies, Götz, 2013, "Mittelfristige Projektion der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und der Staatsfinanzen in Deutschland," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 1, issue 1, pages 33-37.
• Holtemöller, Oliver & Altemeyer-Bartscher, Martin & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Zeddies, Götz, 2013, "Zur Wirtschaftspolitik: Haushaltskrisen berücksichtigen, Lösung der Griechenlandkrise voranbringen," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 1, issue 1, pages 38-46.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit & , 2013, "Rückkehr des Vertrauens beflügelt Konjunktur in Deutschland," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 1, issue 2, pages 55-94.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit & Zeddies, Götz, 2013, "Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft erholt sich seit dem Frühjahr," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 1, issue 2, pages 102-107.
• Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit & Zeddies, Götz & Dove, 2013, "Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Aufschwung," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 1, issue 4, pages 144-177.
• Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Giesen, Sebastian & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit & , 2013, "Konjunkturelle Flaute zum Jahresende 2012 – aber auch Anzeichen für eine mäßige Brise im neuen Jahr," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 19, issue 1, pages 4-5.
• Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013, "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2013: Deutsche Konjunktur erholt sich – Wirtschaftspolitik stärker an der langen Frist ausrichten (Kurzfassung)," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 19, issue 2, pages 24-25.
• Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013, "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2013: Konjunktur zieht an – Haushaltsüberschüsse sinnvoll nutzen (Kurzfassung)," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 19, issue 5, pages 88-90.
• Bendel, Daniel & Demary, Markus & Jäger-Ambroçzewicz, 2013, "Konjunkturanalyse mit einem Gleichgewichtsmodell für die deutsche Wirtschaft," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, volume 40, issue 3, pages 33-46, DOI: 10.2373/1864-810X.13-03-03.
• Döhrn, Roland, 2013, "Transportation Data as a Tool for Nowcasting Economic Activity – The German Road Pricing System as an Example," Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, number 395, DOI: 10.4419/86788450.
• Sacht, Stephen & Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok, 2013, "Moment Matching versus Bayesian Estimation: Backward-Looking Behaviour in a New-Keynesian Baseline Model," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 79694.
• Schreiber, Sven, 2013, "Forecasting business-cycle turning points with (relatively large) linear systems in real time," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 79709.
• Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013, "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 79783.
• Theobald, Thomas, 2013, "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 79911.
• Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013, "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 79925.
• Dovern, Jonas & Fritsche, Ulrich & Loungani, Prakash & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2013, "Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 79936.
• Franke, Reiner, 2013, "Competitive Moment Matching of a New-Keynesian and an Old-Keynesian Model," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 79988.
• Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013, "Household`s Disagreement on Inflation Expectations and Socioeconomic Media Exposure in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 80006.

2012

• Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2012, "Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung), number 201213.
• Michael J. Lamla & Samad Sarferaz, 2012, "Updating Inflation Expectations," MAGKS Papers on Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung), number 201216.
• Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2012, "Does the Iranian oil supply matter for the oil prices?," MAGKS Papers on Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung), number 201232.
• Antonello D‚Äôagostino & Kieran Mcquinn & Karl Whelan, 2012, "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 44, issue 4, pages 715-732, June, DOI: j.1538-4616.2012.00507.x.
• Paulo Júlio & Pedro M. Esperança, 2012, "Evaluating the forecast quality of GDP components: An application to G7," GEE Papers, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, number 0047, Apr, revised Apr 2012.
• Radim Gottwald, 2012, "Value at Risk Model Used to Stock Prices Prediction," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, number 2012-30, Oct.
• John T. Cuddington & Abdel M. Zellou, 2012, "A Simple Mineral Market Model: Can it produce Super Cycles in prices?," Working Papers, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business, number 2012-05, Jul.
• Abdel M. Zellou & John T. Cuddington, 2012, "Trends and Super Cycles in Crude Oil and Coal Prices," Working Papers, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business, number 2012-10, Sep.
• Wenli Cheng & Simon D. Angus, 2012, "The Cantillon Effect of Money Injection through Deficit Spending," Monash Economics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Economics, number 12-12, Mar.
• D.S. Poskitt & Wenying Yao, 2012, "VAR Modeling and Business Cycle Analysis: A Taxonomy of Errors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 11/12, Apr.
• Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2012, "Early Warning Indicator Model of Financial Developments Using an Ordered Logit," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, volume 2, issue 2, pages 171-191, December.
• National Bank of Belgium, 2012, "Economic projections for Belgium - Autumn 2012," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 07-23, December.
• National Bank of Belgium, 2012, "Economic projections for Belgium - Spring 2012," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 7-29, June.
• William Poole & Robert H. Rasche & David C. Wheelock, 2013, "The Great Inflation: Did The Shadow Know Better?," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, "The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking".
• Jon Faust & Abhishek Gupta, 2012, "Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 17906, Mar.
• James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012, "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 18094, May.
• Bennett T. McCallum, 2012, "Determinacy, Learnability, Plausibility, and the Role of Money in New Keynesian Models," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 18215, Jul.
• Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012, "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 18467, Oct.
• Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012, "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho, number 20/2012.
• Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012, "The Effects of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Portugal," NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho, number 27/2012.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012, "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics, number 1210, Dec.
• Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun Vahey, 2008, "Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, number DP2008/18, Dec.
• Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Ian Hurst, 2012, "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 2. Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Consolidations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 933, Feb, DOI: 10.1787/5k9fdf6bs78r-en.
• Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2013, "Heuristic model selection for leading indicators in Russia and Germany," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, volume 2012, issue 2, pages 67-89, DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k49pkpbf76j.
• Marco Malgarini & Antonio Paradiso, 2012, "Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector: a comparison between time series and survey estimates," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, volume 2012, issue 2, pages 5-19, DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k8znwp2nts8.
• Ellen E. Meade & Daniel L. Thornton, 2012, "The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, volume 64, issue 2, pages 197-216, April.
• Efrem Castelnuovo, 2012, "What does a monetary policy shock do? An international analysis with multiple filters," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno", number 0145, May.
• Alessandro Flamini, 2012, "Heterogeneity in Sectoral Price Stickiness, Aggregate Dynamics and Monetary Policy Pitfalls with Real Shocks," DEM Working Papers Series, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management, number 023, Nov.
• Guido Ascari & Alessandro Flamini & Lorenza Rossi, 2012, "Nominal Rigidities, Supply Shocks and Economic Stability," DEM Working Papers Series, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management, number 024, Nov.
• Alessandro Flamini & Guido Ascari & Lorenza Rossi, 2012, "Industrial Transformation, Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness, and the Great Moderation," DEM Working Papers Series, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management, number 025, Nov.
• Luis Ricardo Maertens & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2012, "Inflation Expectations Formation In The Presence Of Policy Shifts And Structural Breaks: An Experimental Analysis," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, number 2012-339.
• Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2012, "Point forecasts based on the limits of the forecast intervals to improve the SPF predictions," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, volume 8, issue 2, pages 1-11, December.
• Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012, "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, volume 51, issue 4, pages 609-681.
• Zhang, Hewitt & Hu, Yannan & Hu, Bo, 2012, "House-price crash and macroeconomic crisis: a Hong Kong case study," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 35534, Mar.
• Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2012, "Does the Iranian oil supply matter for the oil prices?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36030, Jan.
• Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012, "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36147, Jan.
• Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew L., 2012, "On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev wave," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 37771, Mar.
• Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012, "Large time-varying parameter VARs," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 38591, Feb.
• Givens, Gregory & Salemi, Michael, 2012, "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39353, May.
• Chan, Joshua & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2012, "A new model of trend inflation," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39496.
• Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin, 2012, "Vliv makroekonomických šoků na dynamiku vládního dluhu: jak robustní je fiskální pozice České republiky?
  [The Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on the Government Debt Dynamics: How Robust is the Fisca," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39761, Jun.
• Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012, "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39944.
• Sokolov, Yuri, 2012, "Modeling risk in a dynamically changing world: from association to causation," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 40096, Jul.
• Barnett, William & Eryilmaz, Unal, 2012, "An analytical and numerical search for bifurcations in open economy New Keynesian models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 40426, Aug.
• Barnett, William A. & Eryilmaz, Unal, 2012, "Hopf bifurcation in the Clarida, Gali, and Gertler model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 40668, Aug.
• Artiach, Miguel, 2012, "Leverage, skewness and amplitude asymmetric cycles," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 41267, Jun.
• Cavallari, Lilia, 2012, "Markups and Entry in a DSGE Model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 41816, Oct.
• Haider, Adnan & Din, Musleh-ud & Ghani, Ejaz, 2012, "Monetary policy, informality and business cycle fluctuations in a developing economy vulnerable to external shocks," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 42484, Oct.
• Arora, Vipin & Lieskovsky, Jozef, 2012, "Natural Gas and U.S. Economic Activity," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 42659, Nov.
• Dybczak, Kamil & Melecky, Martin, 2012, "EU Fiscal Stance Vulnerability: Are the Old Members the Gold Members?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 42837, Nov.
• Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2012, "Sustainable trends and periodicity in consumer price indices indicate that the era of low energy prices is approaching," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 43392, Dec.
• Costa Junior, Celso Jose & Sampaio, Armando Vaz & Gonçalves, Flávio de Oliveria, 2012, "Income Transfer as Model of Economic Growth," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 45494, Dec.
• Skribans, Valerijs, 2012, "European Union Economy System Dynamic Model Development," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 49170.
• Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & George, Asish Thomas, 2012, "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 50929, Oct.
• Bataa, Erdenebat, 2012, "The Composite Leading Indicator of Mongolia," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 72415, Dec.
• Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký, 2012, "Vliv makroekonomických šoků na dynamiku vládního dluhu: jak robustní je fiskální pozice České republiky?
  [The Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on the Government Debt Dynamics: How Robust is the Fisca," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2012, issue 6, pages 723-742, DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.874.
• Gary Koop, 2012, "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, volume 4, issue 3, pages 143-167, September.
• Peter Tulip & Stephanie Wallace, 2012, "Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia, number rdp2012-07, Nov.
• Olena Chyruk & Luca Benzoni & Andrea Ajello, 2012, "Core and `Crust': Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 922.
• Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012, "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, number 11_12, Mar.
• Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu, 2012, "Local Environment Analysis and Rules Inferring Procedure in an Agent-Based Model – Applications in Economics," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 1, pages 128-143, March.
• Chang, Chia Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & Mcaleer, Michael, 2012, "Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 3, pages 22-43, September.
• Katja Drechsel & Rolf Scheufele, 2012, "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, number 2012-16.
• Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012, "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 42, issue 1, pages 95-119, February, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-010-0429-9.
• Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Esteves, 2012, "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgements with sample and model information," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 42, issue 3, pages 639-665, June, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-010-0447-7.
• Dmitri Blueschke & Viktoria Blueschke-Nikolaeva & Reinhard Neck & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2012, "Macroeconomic Policies for Slovenia after the “Great Recession”," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, volume 2, issue 2, pages 54-93, December, DOI: 10.14208/BF03353837.
• Nils Jannsen & Julia Richter, 2012, "Kapazitätsauslastung im Ausland als Indikator für die deutschen Investitionsgüterexporte," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, volume 92, issue 12, pages 833-837, December, DOI: 10.1007/s10273-012-1464-2.
• Joshua Chan & Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2012, "A New Model of Trend Inflation," Working Papers, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics, number 1202, Feb.
• Tom Holden, 2012, "Medium-frequency cycles and the remarkable near trend-stationarity of output," School of Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Surrey, number 1412, Oct.