Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

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Top JEL
/ E: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
/ / E3: Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
/ / / E37: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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This JEL code is mentioned in the following RePEc Biblio entries:

1. Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables
2. Nowcasting

2009

• Gary Koop & Dimitris Korompilis, 2009, "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," Working Papers, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics, number 0917, Aug.
• Nicoletta Batini & Young-Bae Kim & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2009, "Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey," School of Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Surrey, number 0609, Dec.
• Tim Willems, 2009, "Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating the New Keynesian Output Gap via a Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 09-074/2, Aug, revised 26 Mar 2010.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2009, "How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-637, Aug.
• Armida Alisjahbana, 2009, "Revisiting Indonesia’s Sources of Economic Growth and Its Projection Towards 2030," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS), Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, number 200905, Jul, revised Jul 2009.
• Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2009, "Modelling Real Gdp Per Capita In The Usa:Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, volume 4, issue 1(7)_ Spr.
• Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009, "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank, number 4969, Jun.
• Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Tao Zha, 2009, "Learning, Adaptive Expectations and Technology Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 119, issue 536, pages 377-405, March, DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02238.x.
• Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009, "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 41, issue 2‐3, pages 479-489, March, DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00216.x.
• Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009, "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 2009,03.
• Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009, "MIDAS versus mixed-frequency VAR: nowcasting GDP in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 2009,07.
• Clostermann, Jörg & Koch, Alexander & Rees, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2009, "Ein Factor Augmented Stepwise Probit Prognosemodell für den ifo-Geschäftserwartungsindex," Weidener Diskussionspapiere, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH), number 21.
• Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009, "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, volume 3, pages 1-31, DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2009-.
• El-Shagi, Makram, 2009, "Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), number 16/2009.
• Blaskowitz, Oliver J. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2009, "On economic evaluation of directional forecasts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2009-052.
• Ahmadi, Pooyan Amir & Ritschl, Albrecht, 2009, "Depression econometrics: A FAVAR model of monetary policy during the Great Depression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2009-054.
• Clostermann, Jörg & Koch, Alexander & Rees, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2009, "Ein Factor Augmented Stepwise Probit Prognosemodell für den ifo-Geschäftserwartungsindex," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI), number 17.

2008

• G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008, "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series, Bank of Lithuania, number 1, Sep.
• Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008, "Short-Term Forecasts of Latvia's Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers, Latvijas Banka, number 2008/05, Sep.
• Michele Berardi, 2008, "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: learning and predictor choice dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, Economics, The University of Manchester, number 104.
• Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008, "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 40, issue 4, pages 667-699, June.
• George Christodoulakis & Emmanuel Mamatzakis, 2008, "Asymmetries in the sport-forward G10 exchange rates: an answer to an old puzzle?," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, number 2008_12, Sep, revised Sep 2008.
• National Bank of Belgium, 2008, "Economic projections for Belgium – Autumn 2008," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 7-19, December.
• National Bank of Belgium, 2008, "Economic projections for Belgium – Spring 2008," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-28, June.
• K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze & G. Rünstler, 2008, "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets – A pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium, number 133, Jun.
• Julio J. Rotemberg, 2008, "Cyclical Wages in a Search-and-Bargaining Model with Large Firms," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006".
• Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008, "The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 13751, Jan.
• Willem H. Buiter, 2008, "Housing Wealth Isn't Wealth," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 14204, Jul.
• Edward E. Leamer, 2008, "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 14221, Aug.
• James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008, "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 14322, Sep.
• S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008, "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 14349, Sep.
• V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008, "Are Structural VARs with Long-Run Restrictions Useful in Developing Business Cycle Theory?," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 14430, Oct.
• Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2008, "Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 14601, Dec.
• Dr. James Mitchell, 2008, "Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, number 303, Jan.
• Gerhard Fenz & Martin Schneider, 2008, "Transmission of business cycle shocks between the US and the euro area," Working Papers, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), number 145, Jul.
• Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008, "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, volume 123, issue 3, pages 863-904.
• Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008, "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, number 406, Oct.
• Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A., 2008, "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within new Keynesian models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 11249, Oct.
• Shamiri, Ahmed & Shaari, Abu Hassan & Isa, Zaidi, 2008, "Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing GARCH models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 13662.
• Mukherjee, Deepraj & Kemme, David, 2008, "Evaluating inflation forecast models for Poland: Openness matters, money does not (but its cost does)," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 14952, Jul.
• Gutierrez Girault, Matias Alfredo, 2008, "Modeling extreme but plausible losses for credit risk: a stress testing framework for the Argentine Financial System," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 16378, Jun.
• Shin, Inyong & Kim, Hyunho & Yamamura, Eiji, 2008, "Technological Progress and the Future of Kuznets Curve's," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 18866, Sep.
• Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2008, "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 19488, Jan.
• Omay, Tolga, 2008, "The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 28572.
• Osman, Mohammad & Jean Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk, 2008, "Output gap and inflation nexus: the case of United Arab Emirates," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 34006, revised 2009.
• Guzman, Giselle C., 2008, "Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36653, Oct.
• Bell, William Paul, 2008, "Adaptive interactive profit expectations using small world networks and runtime weighted model averaging," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 38027, Dec.
• Damdinsuren, Batnyam & Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2008, "Small Inflation Model of Mongolia (SIMOM)," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 72139, Apr, revised Apr 2008.
• Jurdziak, Leszek, 2008, "Metoda Szacowania Kosztów Inwestycyjnych Oraz Eksploatacyjnych Przenośników
  [Method Of Capital And Operational Cost Estimation Of Belt Coneyors]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 75183.
• S. Adnan H. A. S., Bukhari & Safdar Ullah, Khan, 2008, "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy:Structural and Statistical Approaches," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 9736, Apr, revised 20 Jun 2008.
• Guangling (Dave) Liu & Rangan Gupta & Eric Schaling, 2008, "A New-Keynesian DSGE Model for Forecasting the South African Economy," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 200805, Apr.
• Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2008, "Spatial Bayesian Methods of Forecasting House Prices in Six Metropolitan Areas of South Africa," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 200813, Jun.
• Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2008, "Predicting Downturns in the US Housing Market: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 200821, Jun.
• Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2008, "Inflation models, optimal monetary policy and uncertain unemployment dynamics: Evidence from the US and the euro area," Discussion Papers, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy, number 8_2008, Jun.
• Paulo Esteves & Maximiano Pinheiro, 2008, "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: Combining judgements with sample and model information," Working Papers, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department, number w200821.
• Gregor W. Smith, 2008, "Us Inflation Dynamics 1981-2007: 13,193 Quarterly Observations," Working Paper, Economics Department, Queen's University, number 1155, Feb.
• Jan J.J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008, "Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 624, Mar.
• Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios, 2008, "A Review of Forecasting Techniques for Large Data Sets," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 625, Mar.
• Oleg Demidov, 2008, "Different indexes for forecasting economic activity in Russia (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 5, pages 83-102, September.
• Andrew Hodge & Tim Robinson & Robyn Stuart, 2008, "A Small BVAR-DSGE Model for Forecasting the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia, number rdp2008-04, Sep.
• Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2008, "Optimal Exchange Rate Stabilization in a Dollarized Economy with Inflation Targets," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, number 2008-004, Feb.
• Kevin Lansing, 2008, "Code for "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve"," Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics, number 07-129, revised .
• Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008, "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, volume 11, issue 1, pages 155-178, January, DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2007.04.006.
• Jordi Gali, 2008, "Are Central Banks' Projections Meaningful?," 2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 174.
• Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009, "The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations," Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, number 14_09, Jan.
• Pelinescu, Elena & Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu, 2008, "Alternative Measures of Core Inflation in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 5, issue 1, pages 134-148, March.
• Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios, 2008, "A review of forecasting techniques for large datasets," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, volume 203, issue 1, pages 109-115, January.
• Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine, 2008, "Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy," CDMA Conference Paper Series, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, number 0810, Aug.
• Mahmood-ul-Hasan Khan, 2008, "Short Run Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Monetary Policy: Interpreting Macroeconomic Dynamics in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, volume 4, pages 1-30.
• S. Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008, "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, volume 4, pages 31-60.
• Syed Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008, "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Working Paper Series, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, number 24, Jun.
• Michele Battisti & Gianfranco Di Vaio, 2008, "A spatially filtered mixture of β-convergence regressions for EU regions, 1980–2002," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 34, issue 1, pages 105-121, February, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-007-0168-8.
• Michele Battisti & Gianfranco Vaio, 2008, "A spatially filtered mixture of β-convergence regressions for EU regions, 1980–2002," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 34, issue 1, pages 203-203, February, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-007-0169-7.
• Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008, "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 35, issue 3, pages 413-436, November, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-007-0165-y.
• Hamid Baghestani, 2008, "Predicting capacity utilization: Federal Reserve vs time-series models," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, volume 32, issue 1, pages 47-57, January, DOI: 10.1007/s12197-007-9002-6.
• Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Peter Welz, 2008, "Robust Inflation-Targeting Rules and the Gains from International Policy Coordination," School of Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Surrey, number 0208, Jan.
• Ali Choudhary & Adnan Haider, 2008, "Neural Network Models for Inflation Forecasting: An Appraisal," School of Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Surrey, number 0808, Nov.
• Young-Bae Kim, 2008, "Is There A Trade-off Between Regional Growth and National Income? Theory and Evidence from the EU," School of Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Surrey, number 1008, Nov.
• Aaron Mehrotra & Jouko Rautava, 2008, "Do sentiment indicators help to assess and predict actual developments of the Chinese economy?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 6, issue 3, pages 225-239, DOI: 10.1080/14765280802283451.
• Liu, G. & Gupta, R. & Schaling, E., 2008, "Forecasting the South African Economy : A DSGE-VAR Approach," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research, number 2008-32.
• Liu, G. & Gupta, R. & Schaling, E., 2008, "Forecasting the South African Economy : A DSGE-VAR Approach," Other publications TiSEM, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management, number adfaca2d-b9dd-4548-93d0-3.
• Heikki Kauppi, 2008, "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers, Aboa Centre for Economics, number 31, May.
• Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008, "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers, University of Toronto, Department of Economics, number tecipa-319, May.
• Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008, "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, volume 6, issue 1, pages 122-157, March.
• Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008, "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, volume 6, issue 2-3, pages 621-633, 04-05.
• Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2008, "Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and The Decline of Inflation Predictability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, volume 6, issue 2-3, pages 634-646, 04-05.
• Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Tao Zha, 2008, "Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, number 0807, Aug.
• Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2008, "Forecasting Canadian time series with the New Keynesian model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, volume 41, issue 1, pages 138-165, February, DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.00458.x.
• Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008, "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 40, issue 4, pages 667-699, June, DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00131.x.
• Clements, Michael P., 2008, "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics, number 869.
• Clements, Michael P., 2008, "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics, number 870.
• Jacek Kotlowski, 2008, "Forecasting inflation with dynamic factor model – the case of Poland," Working Papers, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics, number 24, Feb.
• Wang, Mu-Chun, 2008, "Comparing the DSGE model with the factor model: an out-of-sample forecasting experiment," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 2008,04.
• Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008, "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 2008,14.
• Lux, Thomas, 2008, "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics, number 2008-07.
• Fendel, Ralf & Lis, Eliza M. & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2008, "Does the financial market believe in the Phillips Curve? Evidence from the G7 countries," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics, number 73.
• Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2008, "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, number 2008-30.
• Dovern, Jonas & Ziegler, Christina, 2008, "Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions," Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, number 1397.
• Lux, Thomas, 2008, "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, number 1424.
• Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2008, "Are they really rational? Assessing professional macro-economic forecasts from the G7-countries," Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, number 1447.
• Döhrn, Roland & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Zimmermann, Tobias, 2008, "Inflation Forecasting with Inflation Sentiment Indicators," Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, number 80.
• Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2008, "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics, number 15/08.
• Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008, "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2008-55, Sep.
• Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008, "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2008-56, Sep.
• Steffen Osterloh, 2008, "Accuracy and Properties of German Business Cycle Forecasts," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, volume 54, issue 1, pages 27-57.
• Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008, "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, volume 54, issue 4, pages 293-318.
• Smith, Gregor W., 2008, "US Inflation Dynamics 1981-2007: 13,193 Quarterly Observations," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers, Queen's University - Department of Economics, number 273631, Feb, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.273631.
• Clements, Michael P., , "Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," Economic Research Papers, University of Warwick - Department of Economics, number 269880, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.269880.
• Clements, Michael P., , "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," Economic Research Papers, University of Warwick - Department of Economics, number 269881, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.269881.
• Pedro Elosegui & Lorena Garegnani & Luis Lanteri & Emilio Blanco, 2008, "Aggregate Indicators of Economic Activity for the Argentine Case: The Principal Components Methodology," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, volume 1, issue 51, pages 7-41, April - S.
• Pedro Elosegui & Lorena Garegnani & Emilio Blanco, 2008, "Aggregate Indicators of Economic Activity for Argentina: The Principal Components Method," BCRA Working Paper Series, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, number 200832, Feb.
• Laura D´Amato & Lorena Garegnani & Emilio Blanco, 2008, "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina: Individual Models or Forecast Pooling?," BCRA Working Paper Series, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, number 200835, Jul.
• Antonella Foglia, 2008, "Stress testing credit risk: a survey of authorities' approaches," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 37, Dec.
• Riccardo Cristadoro & Fabrizio Venditti & Giuseppe Saporito, 2008, "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 677, Jun.
• Capistrán Carlos & López Moctezuma Gabriel, 2008, "Experts' Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2008-11, Aug.
• Valérie Chauvin & Antoine Devulder, 2008, "An Inflation Forecasting Model for the Euro Area," Working papers, Banque de France, number 192.
• Karim Barhoumi & Gerhard R nstler & riccardo Cristadoro & Ard Den Reijer & Audrone Jakaitiene & Piotr Jelonek & Antonio Rua & Ruth Karsten & Szilard Benk & Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008, "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers, Banque de France, number 215.
• Lance Bachmeier & Qi Li & Dandan Liu, 2008, "Should Oil Prices Receive So Much Attention? An Evaluation Of The Predictive Power Of Oil Prices For The U.S. Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, volume 46, issue 4, pages 528-539, October, DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00095.x.
• Daniel Buncic & Martin Melecky, 2008, "An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, volume 84, issue 264, pages 1-16, March, DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2008.00443.x.
• David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2008, "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, volume 84, issue 264, pages 34-49, March, DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2008.00445.x.
• Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2008, "The Credibility Problem Revisited: Thirty Years on from Kydland and Prescott," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, volume 16, issue 4, pages 728-746, September, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2008.00772.x.
• Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2008, "Spatial Bayesian Methods Of Forecasting House Prices In Six Metropolitan Areas Of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, volume 76, issue 2, pages 298-313, June, DOI: 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2008.00191.x.
• Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008, "Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The role of asset prices in a small open economy," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2007/09, Jan.
• Hilde C. Bjørnland & Kai Leitemo & Junior Maih, 2008, "Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2007/10, Jan.
• Anne-Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2008, "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2008/01, Jan.
• Q. Farooq Akram, 2008, "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2008/12, Aug.
• Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2008, "Combining inflation density forecasts," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2008/22, Dec.
• Hibiki Ichiue & Takushi Kurozumi & Takeki Sunakawa, 2008, "Inflation Dynamics and Labor Adjustments in Japan: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, Bank of Japan, number 08-E-9, Sep.
• Joonhyuk Song & Youngsoo Choi, 2008, "Bond Risk Premia and Business Cycle (in Korean)," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, volume 14, issue 4, pages 1-46, December.
• David R.F. Love, 2008, "A Note on the Accuracy of Extended-Path Solution Methods for Dynamic General Equilibrium Economies," Working Papers, Brock University, Department of Economics, number 0801, Apr, revised Apr 2008.
• Jef Vuchelen & Jesse De Wit, 2008, "An Evaluation of the OECD Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Government Balance Forecasts," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, volume 51, issue 4, pages 459-479.
• Bermingham, Colin, 2008, "Quantifying the Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation," Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland, number 8/RT/08, Nov.
• Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2008, "Can the Facts of UK Inflation Persistence be Explained by Nominal Rigidity?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, number E2008/7, Apr, revised Apr 2010.
• Pelinescu, Elena & Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu, 2008, "Choosing between alternative measures of core inflation using bounded rationality and cognitive biases," Revista de Economie Industriala (Journal of Industrial Eonomics), Centre for Industrial Economics and Services, volume 6, issue 1, pages 42-52, March.
• Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2004, "Unemployment in the European Union: Institutions, Prices, and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 1247.
• Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008, "Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP: Optimal Pooling of Information," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2371.
• Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008, "Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung - ein gleichlaufender Indikator der deutschen Industriekonjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, volume 61, issue 16, pages 15-23, August.
• Steffen Henzel, 2008, "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," ifo Working Paper Series, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 55.
• Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008, "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," ifo Working Paper Series, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 57.
• Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2008, "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," ifo Working Paper Series, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 60.
• Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2008, "Forecasting Canadian time series with the New Keynesian model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, volume 41, issue 1, pages 138-165, February.
• José Luis Torres T., 2008, "La Estimación de la brecha del producto en Colombia," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, chapter 4, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA), "Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región".
• Katerina Smidkova, 2008, "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, chapter 1, in: Katerina Smidkova, "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007".
• Juraj Antal & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub, 2008, "Basic Characteristics of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, chapter 2, in: Katerina Smidkova, "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007".
• Juraj Antal & Michal Hlavacek & Roman Horvath, 2008, "Prediction Bias and Undershooting of the Inflation Target," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, chapter 5, in: Katerina Smidkova, "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007".
• Jan Babecky & Jiri Podpiera, 2008, "Inflation Forecasts Errors in the Czech Republic: Evidence from a Panel of Institutions," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, chapter 6, in: Katerina Smidkova, "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007".
• Zuzana Antonicova & Karel Musil & Lubos Ruzicka & Jan Vlcek, 2008, "Evaluation of the Quality and Success Rate of Forecasts: A Historic Overview," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, chapter 7, in: Katerina Smidkova, "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007".
• Eliana Roc�o Gonz�lez Molano, 2008, "Pron�sticos de agregados a partir de desagregados Caso emp�rico: Inflaci�n de alimentos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 4596, Apr.
• Ignacio Lozano & Hern�n Rinc�n & Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Ramos, 2008, "Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas p�blicas de Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 4597, Apr.
• Alejandro Reveiz & Carlos Le�n, 2008, "Administraci�n de fondos de pensiones y multifondos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 4598, Apr.
• Alejandro Reveiz & Carlos Le�n & Juan Mario Laserna & Ivonne Mart�nez, 2008, "Recomendaciones para la modificaci�n del r�gimen de pensiones obligatorias de Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 4599, Apr.
• Alejandro Gaviria & Carlos Medina & Leonardo Morales & Jairo Nu�ez, 2008, "The Cost of Avoiding Crime: The Case of Bogot�," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 4600, Apr.
• Adam Elbourne & Debby Lanser & Bert Smid & Martin Vromans, 2008, "Macroeconomic resilience in a DSGE model," CPB Discussion Paper, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, number 96, Jan.
• Adam Elbourne & Henk Kranendonk & Rob Luginbuhl & Bert Smid & Martin Vromans, 2008, "Evaluating CPB's published GDP growth forecasts; a comparison with individual and pooled VAR based forecasts," CPB Document, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, number 172, Oct.
• Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2008, "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 6706, Feb.
• Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2008, "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: A model comparison for German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 6708, Feb.
• Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Srinivasan, Naveen & Meenagh, David & Sofat, Prakriti, 2008, "Can the Facts of UK Inflation Persistence be Explained by Nominal Rigidity?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 6834, May.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso & Frale, Cecilia & Mazzi, Gian Luigi, 2008, "A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7007, Oct.
• Kilian, Lutz & Vega, Clara, 2008, "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7015, Oct.
• Dikaios Tserkezos & George Xanthos & Eva Pitikaki, 2008, "A Note on the Diachronic Behaviour of the OECD Forecasts for Greece," Working Papers, University of Crete, Department of Economics, number 0814, Jan.
• Granato, Jim & Guse, Eran A. & Wong, M. C. Sunny, 2008, "Learning From The Expectations Of Others," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, volume 12, issue 3, pages 345-377, June.
• Eklund, Jana & Kapetanios, George, 2008, "A review of forecasting techniques for large datasets," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, volume 203, issue , pages 109-115, January.
• Georg Erber & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008, "Produktivitätswachstum in Deutschland: kein nachhaltiger Aufschwung in Sicht," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 75, issue 36, pages 512-519.
• Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008, "Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, number 787.
• LOENING, Josef & TAKADA, Hideki, 2008, "Inflationary Expectations In Ethiopia: Some Preliminary Results," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, volume 8, issue 2, pages 159-176.
• Cecilia Frale & David Veredas, 2008, "A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number 2008-008, Mar.
• Van Nieuwenhuyze, Christophe & Benk, Szilard & Rünstler, Gerhard & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Den Reijer, Ard & Jakaitiene, Audrone & Jelonek, Piotr & Rua, António & Ruth, Karsten & Barhoumi, Karim, 2008, "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 84, May.
• Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008, "Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 860, Jan.
• Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008, "Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 865, Feb.
• Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pierse, Richard & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2008, "Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 870, Feb.
• Dées, Stéphane & Burgert, Matthias, 2008, "Forecasting world trade: direct versus "bottom-up" approaches," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 882, Mar.
• Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Maurin, Laurent, 2008, "The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production: perspective from large panel factor models," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 894, May.
• Levine, Paul, 2008, "Robust monetary rules under unstructured and structured model uncertainty," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 899, May.
• Venditti, Fabrizio & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Saporito, Giuseppe, 2008, "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 900, Jun.
• Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008, "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 944, Oct.
• McAdam, Peter & Mestre, Ricardo, 2008, "Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 950, Oct.
• Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2008, "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 953, Oct.
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• Christian Schulz, 2008, "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers, Bank of Estonia, number 2008-02, Oct, revised 30 Oct 2008.
• Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph & Pierse, Richard, 2008, "Linear-quadratic approximation, external habit and targeting rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 32, issue 10, pages 3315-3349, October.
• Lungu, L. & Matthews, K.G.P. & Minford, A.P.L., 2008, "Partial current information and signal extraction in a rational expectations macroeconomic model: A computational solution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 25, issue 2, pages 255-273, March.
• Nolan, Charles & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2008, "Labour markets and firm-specific capital in New Keynesian general equilibrium models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 30, issue 3, pages 817-843, September.
• Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph, 2008, "Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, volume 55, issue 7, pages 1253-1276, October.
• Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & McGrattan, Ellen R., 2008, "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, volume 55, issue 8, pages 1337-1352, November.
• Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna, 2008, "Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, volume 387, issue 15, pages 3817-3825, DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.045.