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A Common Monetary Policy For The Maghreb: The Winners and The Losers?

Author

Listed:
  • Belhadj, ARAM
  • Bouguezzi, WAJDI
  • Jedlane, NABIL

Abstract

During the Arab banks-summit in Paris last June 2008, the project of monetary integration in the Maghreb (Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania and Tunisia) was discussed again. Yet, many efforts have been undertaken to reinforce the completion of the regional integration process in this part of the world. These were initiated in 1989 by the creation of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) and expanded last years to cover the possibility of establishing the Maghreb monetary union. Our aim in this paper consists in assessing the relevance of such a project for three Maghreb countries: Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. To do that, we try to simulate an aggregated monetary rule describing a common monetary policy in an open economy. This rule is constructed and compared to national monetary rules already simulated in many other works. Such a construction and comparison allow us to verify if a common monetary policy will be beneficial to all countries or, if on the contrary, it will be beneficial to one country rather than the others. Our results suggest that a common monetary policy will be more beneficial to Algeria than to Morocco or Tunisia. In fact, the common central bank has to grant more weight to activity rather than inflation or exchange rate, a result which often coincides with the national Algerian rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Belhadj, ARAM & Bouguezzi, WAJDI & Jedlane, NABIL, 2009. "A Common Monetary Policy For The Maghreb: The Winners and The Losers?," MPRA Paper 29701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29701
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Paul Pollin & Alexis Penot, 1999. "Construction d'une règle monétaire pour la "zone euro"," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(3), pages 535-546.
    2. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas," NBER Working Papers 9666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry, 2002. "Lessons of the Euro for the Rest of the World," Institute of European Studies, Working Paper Series qt16g425jb, Institute of European Studies, UC Berkeley.
    6. M S Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2001. "What determines inflation in emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 1-38 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
    8. Charles Freedman, 1981. "Monetary Aggregates as Targets: Some Theoretical Aspects," NBER Working Papers 0775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ben Hammouda, Hakim & Oulmane, Nassim & Bchir, Hédi & Sadni Jallab, Mustapha, 2006. "The Cost of non-Maghreb: Achieving the Gains from Economic Integration," MPRA Paper 13293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Common monetary policy; exchange rate; optimization; Taylor rule; Maghreb;

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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