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Prognosen aus dem Internet: Weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet

Author

Listed:
  • Askitas, Nikos

    (IZA)

  • Zimmermann, Klaus F.

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

Nach einem neuen methodischen Prognosekonzept, das arbeitsmarktbezogene Internetdaten nutzt, entspannt sich zum Frühjahr 2009 die Arbeitsmarktlage. Das Papier erläutert die Technik der Prognose der Arbeitslosigkeit unter Nutzung der Messung der Google-Suchaktivität und illustriert die Leistungsfähigkeit der Methode in der gegenwärtigen komplexen Anwendungssituation.

Suggested Citation

  • Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Prognosen aus dem Internet: Weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet," IZA Standpunkte 13, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izasps:sp13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Werner Eichhorst & Paul Marx, 2009. "Kurzarbeit — Sinnvoller Konjunkturpuffer oder verlängertes Arbeitslosengeld?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 89(5), pages 322-328, May.
    2. Nikolaos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 55(2), pages 107-120.
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    Cited by:

    1. Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Googlemetrie und Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirtschaftskrise," IZA Standpunkte 17, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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