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Prognosen aus dem Internet: weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet

  • Nikos Askitas
  • Klaus F. Zimmermann

Überraschend ist im Mai die Arbeitslosigkeit gefallen. Diese positive Entwicklung wird sich im Juni zunächst fortsetzen. Diese Einschätzung basiert auf einem neuen methodischen Konzept, das Google-Aktivitätsdaten für die kurzfristige Prognose der Arbeitslosigkeit einsetzt. Gerade in wirtschaftlichen Krisenzeiten sind frühzeitige Prognosen gefragt: Traditionelle Verfahren geben dies mangels rechtzeitig verfügbarer Primärdaten und angesichts rascher struktureller Veränderungen allerdings nicht her. Kurzfristige Politikmaßnahmen verändern darüber hinaus die Datengrundlage. "Weiche" Daten, wie sie das Internet liefert, können in dieser Situation einen Ausweg bieten. Die Erfahrungen im bisherigen Verlauf der Wirtschaftskrise belegen - angesichts schwieriger Rahmenbedingungen - eine insgesamt gute Performance des vorgeschlagenen Konzepts.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.99409.de/09-25-1.pdf
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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Wochenbericht.

Volume (Year): 76 (2009)
Issue (Month): 25 ()
Pages: 402-408

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:76-25-1
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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Im Angesicht der Krise: US-Präsidentschaftswahlen in transnationaler Sicht," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(44), pages 688-701.
  3. Nikos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting," Research Notes of the German Council for Social and Economic Data 41, German Council for Social and Economic Data (RatSWD).
  4. Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Stefan Kooths & Vladimir Kuzin & Sebastian Weber & Florian Zinsmeister, 2009. "Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung 2009/2010," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(1/2), pages 2-35.
  5. Eichhorst, Werner & Marx, Paul, 2009. "Kurzarbeit: Sinnvoller Konjunkturpuffer oder verlängertes Arbeitslosengeld?," IZA Standpunkte 5, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Prognosekrise: Warum weniger manchmal mehr ist," IZA Standpunkte 4, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Geben Konjunkturprognosen eine gute Orientierung?," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(13), pages 207-213.
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