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Prognosekrise: Warum weniger manchmal mehr ist

  • Zimmermann, Klaus F.

    ()

    (IZA, DIW Berlin and Bonn University)

Angesichts der gegenwärtigen Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise überbieten sich die Anbieter von Prognosen derzeit in immer neuen Schreckenszenarien und pessimistischen Konjunkturvorhersagen. Prognosen beeinflussen Verhalten und Stimmungen und sind deshalb in Krisenzeiten von besonderer Brisanz. Überzeichnende Negativprognosen, die derzeit allenfalls informierte Szenarien sein können, sind dazu angetan, die Krise zu verstärken. Das Papier plädiert deshalb für größere Zurückhaltung bei der Formulierung neuer Prognosen und die alternative Angaben von Intervallprognosen, die im Hinblick auf die herrschende Prognoseunsicherheit Korridore der möglichen Konjunkturentwicklung nennen statt nur vermeintlich präzise Prozentangaben zu treffen.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Standpunkte with number 4.

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Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izasps:sp4
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