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Prognosekrise: Warum weniger manchmal mehr ist

Author

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  • Zimmermann, Klaus F.

    () (IZA, DIW Berlin and Bonn University)

Abstract

Angesichts der gegenwärtigen Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise überbieten sich die Anbieter von Prognosen derzeit in immer neuen Schreckenszenarien und pessimistischen Konjunkturvorhersagen. Prognosen beeinflussen Verhalten und Stimmungen und sind deshalb in Krisenzeiten von besonderer Brisanz. Überzeichnende Negativprognosen, die derzeit allenfalls informierte Szenarien sein können, sind dazu angetan, die Krise zu verstärken. Das Papier plädiert deshalb für größere Zurückhaltung bei der Formulierung neuer Prognosen und die alternative Angaben von Intervallprognosen, die im Hinblick auf die herrschende Prognoseunsicherheit Korridore der möglichen Konjunkturentwicklung nennen statt nur vermeintlich präzise Prozentangaben zu treffen.

Suggested Citation

  • Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Prognosekrise: Warum weniger manchmal mehr ist," IZA Standpunkte 4, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izasps:sp4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nikos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Prognosen aus dem Internet: weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(25), pages 402-408.
    2. Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Googlemetrie und Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirtschaftskrise," IZA Standpunkte 17, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Finanzmarktkrise;

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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