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Prognosekrise: Warum weniger manchmal mehr ist

Author

Listed:
  • Zimmermann, Klaus F.

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

Angesichts der gegenwärtigen Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise überbieten sich die Anbieter von Prognosen derzeit in immer neuen Schreckenszenarien und pessimistischen Konjunkturvorhersagen. Prognosen beeinflussen Verhalten und Stimmungen und sind deshalb in Krisenzeiten von besonderer Brisanz. Überzeichnende Negativprognosen, die derzeit allenfalls informierte Szenarien sein können, sind dazu angetan, die Krise zu verstärken. Das Papier plädiert deshalb für größere Zurückhaltung bei der Formulierung neuer Prognosen und die alternative Angaben von Intervallprognosen, die im Hinblick auf die herrschende Prognoseunsicherheit Korridore der möglichen Konjunkturentwicklung nennen statt nur vermeintlich präzise Prozentangaben zu treffen.

Suggested Citation

  • Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Prognosekrise: Warum weniger manchmal mehr ist," IZA Standpunkte 4, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izasps:sp4
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    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/sp4.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kocziszky, György & Szendi, Dóra, 2023. "Ex-Ante Analysis Of Macro-Regional Development In The Visegrad Countries, With Special Emphasis On Some Turbulent Periods," Economic and Regional Studies (Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne), John Paul II University of Applied Sciences in Biala Podlaska, vol. 16(2), June.
    2. Nikos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Prognosen aus dem Internet: weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(25), pages 402-408.
    3. Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Googlemetrie und Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirtschaftskrise," IZA Standpunkte 17, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Finanzmarktkrise;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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