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Is the Friedman Rule Stabilizing? Some Unpleasant Results in a Heterogeneous Expectations Framework

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  • Mattia Guerini

    () (Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa)

Abstract

The recent economic crisis gave proof of the fact that the Taylor rule is no more that good instrument as it was thought to be just ten years ago; this might be due to the fact that agents acting in the economy hold Heterogeneous Expectations (HE). In a recent paper Anufriev et al. (2013) suggest that a way to force stability on the economic system is to adopt a more aggressive Taylor rule. In the present paper a standard NK-DSGE is considered in order to investigate whether a Friedman k-percent monetary policy rule may be a valid instrument to counteract the instability created by the presence of HE in a framework à la Brock and Hommes (1997). The model here presented suggests that when such a money supply rule is adopted by the Central Bank, stability strongly depends on the intensity of choice, which represents the ability of the agents to switch toward the best available predictor.

Suggested Citation

  • Mattia Guerini, 2013. "Is the Friedman Rule Stabilizing? Some Unpleasant Results in a Heterogeneous Expectations Framework," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def003, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie1:def003
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    File URL: http://dipartimenti.unicatt.it/economia-finanza-def003.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mattia Guerini, 2013. "Is the Friedman Rule Stabilizing? Some Unpleasant Results in a Heterogeneous Expectations Framework," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def003, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2011. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. repec:ctc:serie1:def3 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, July.
    7. Massimo Bordignon & Matteo Gamalerio & Gilberto Turati, 2013. "Decentralization, Vertical Fiscal Imbalance, and Political Selection," CESifo Working Paper Series 4459, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Adriana Cornea-Madeira & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2019. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 288-300, April.
    9. repec:ctc:serie1:def0003 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:ctc:serie1:def2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, March.
    12. Colombo, Luca & Dawid, Herbert, 2014. "Strategic location choice under dynamic oligopolistic competition and spillovers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 288-307.
    13. Anufriev, Mikhail & Assenza, Tiziana & Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Interest Rate Rules And Macroeconomic Stability Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(08), pages 1574-1604, December.
    14. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    15. repec:ctc:serie1:def0002 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous Expectations; Friedman Monetary Policy Rule; Macroeconomic Stability;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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