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Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy

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  • George W. Evans
  • Seppo Honkapohja

Abstract

Using New Keynesian models, we compare Friedman's "k"-percent money supply rule to optimal interest rate setting, with respect to determinacy, stability under learning and optimality. First we review the recent literature: open-loop interest rate rules are subject to indeterminacy and instability problems, but a properly chosen expectations-based rule yields determinacy and stability under learning, and implements optimal policy. We show that Friedman's rule also can generate equilibria that are determinate and stable under learning. However, computing the mean quadratic welfare loss, we find for calibrated models that Friedman's rule performs poorly when compared to the optimal interest rate rule. Copyright (c) Scottish Economic Society 2003.

Suggested Citation

  • George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Friedman's Money Supply Rule vs. Optimal Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 550-566, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:50:y:2003:i:5:p:550-566
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316.
    2. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Policy Interaction, Learning, And The Fiscal Theory Of Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 665-690, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Financial market imperfections and monetary policy strategy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2609-2621.
    2. Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Discretionary Policy, Multiple Equilibria, and Monetary Instruments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-098/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Llewellyn, David T. & Mayes, David G., 2003. "The role of market discipline in handling problem banks," Research Discussion Papers 21/2003, Bank of Finland.
    4. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy under heterogeneity in currency trade," Research Discussion Papers 21/2007, Bank of Finland.
    5. Guender, Alfred V., 2003. "Optimal discretionary monetary policy in the open economy : Choosing between CPI and domestic inflation as target variables," Research Discussion Papers 12/2003, Bank of Finland.
    6. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in a hybrid New Keynesian model with a cost channel," Research Discussion Papers 24/2007, Bank of Finland.
    7. Schabert, Andreas & Stoltenberg, Christian, 2005. "Money Demand and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 4974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:57:y:2012:i:04:n:s0217590812500245 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Interlinking securities settlement systems: A strategic commitment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 2962-2977, October.
    10. Jukka Vauhkonen, 2004. "Banks' equity stakes in borrowing firms: A corporate finance approach," Game Theory and Information 0404003, EconWPA.
    11. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 1116, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    12. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Schabert, Andreas, 2005. "Money supply and the implementation of interest rate targets," Working Paper Series 483, European Central Bank.
    14. Jukka Vauhkonen, 2004. "Financial contracts and contingent control rights," Finance 0404022, EconWPA.
    15. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    16. Dai, Meixing, 2007. "The design of a ‘two-pillar’ monetary policy strategy," MPRA Paper 14403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.
    17. Meixing DAI, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    18. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Cost Channel and Inflation Inertia," Working Paper Series 2012:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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