IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/grz/wpaper/2017-15.html

The strong increase of Austrian government debt in the Kreisky era: Austro-Keynesianism or just stubborn forecast errors?

Author

Listed:
  • Florian Brugger

    (University of Graz, Austria)

  • Joern Kleinert

    (University of Graz, Austria)

Abstract

In the Kreisky era (1970 1983), Austrian government debts increased strongly. Historically, the attitude of Kreisky and the Social Democrats towards Keynesian fiscal policy measures to fight unemployment during the oil crises has been held to be responsible for the successive budget deficits. Kreisky s ideological debt policy has become a narrative that has strongly influenced Austrian fiscal policy until today. While this explanation for the strong increase in public debt during the Kreisky era is widely accepted, it is not necessarily true. In this paper, we assess a different explanation: the deficits might simply have resulted from forecast errors of GDP growth in those turbulent times. We find that about one-third of the increase in the debt-over-GDP ratio is directly explained by short-run forecast errors, i.e., the difference between the approved and the realized budget, and an additional one-fifth is the lower bound of forecast error regarding the long-run growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Brugger & Joern Kleinert, 2017. "The strong increase of Austrian government debt in the Kreisky era: Austro-Keynesianism or just stubborn forecast errors?," Graz Economics Papers 2017-15, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:grz:wpaper:2017-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://unipub.uni-graz.at/obvugrveroeff/download/pdf/9571003?originalFilename=true
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    2. Mauro, Paolo & Romeu, Rafael & Binder, Ariel & Zaman, Asad, 2015. "A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 55-70.
    3. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    4. Bohn, Frank & Veiga, Francisco José, 2021. "Political forecast cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003. "Economic Growth, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262025531, December.
    6. Harald Badinger, 2006. "Fiscal shocks, output dynamics and macroeconomic stability: an empirical assessment for Austria (1983–2002)," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(5), pages 267-284, December.
    7. Robert J. Shiller, 2017. "Narrative Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 967-1004, April.
    8. Olivier Blanchard, 2006. "European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas [‘The macroeconomics of low inflation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 6-59.
    9. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    10. Reinhard Neck & Gottfried Haber & Andrea Klinglmair, 2015. "Austrian Public Debt Growth: A Public Choice Perspective," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 21(3), pages 249-260, August.
    11. Sims, Christopher A., 2010. "Rational Inattention and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 4, pages 155-181, Elsevier.
    12. Johann Bröthaler & Michael Getzner & Gottfried Haber, 2015. "Sustainability of local government debt: a case study of Austrian municipalities," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 521-546, August.
    13. Maximilian Goedl & Christoph Zwick, 2018. "Assessing the stochastic stability of public debt: the case of Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 559-585, August.
    14. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1, January.
    15. Frey, Bruno S., 1976. "Theorie und Empirik politischer Konjunkturzyklen," Discussion Papers, Series I 75, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    16. Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 69-94, May.
    2. Ianc, Nicolae-Bogdan & Turcu, Camelia, 2020. "So alike, yet so different: Comparing fiscal multipliers across EU members and candidates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 278-298.
    3. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Koloskova, Ksenia & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted economic contractions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-52.
    4. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2013. "Forecasting Fiscal Variables: Only a Strong Growth Plan Can Sustain the Greek Austerity Programs - Evidence from Simultaneous and Structural Models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Anuwat PUE-ON & Bert D WARD, 2009. "The Impact of Capital Intensive Farming in Thailand: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," EcoMod2009 21500076, EcoMod.
    6. Hasko, Harri, 2007. "Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic: the role of monetary and fiscal policy in public debt dynamics since the 1970s," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/2007, Bank of Finland.
    7. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    8. Hasko, Harri, 2007. "Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic : the role of monetary and fiscal policy in public debt dynamics since the 1970s," Research Discussion Papers 28/2007, Bank of Finland.
    9. Johannes Hermanus Kemp & Hylton Hollander, 2020. "A medium-sized, open-economy, fiscal DSGE model of South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-92, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. de Groot, Oliver & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine, 2015. "Cost of borrowing shocks and fiscal adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 23-48.
    11. Chang, Yoosoon & Kwak, Boreum & Qiu, Shi, 2021. "U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime changes and their interactions," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Flotho, Stefanie, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers In A Monetary Union Under The Zero–Lower–Bound Constraint," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1171-1194, September.
    13. V. Anton Muscatelli & Tiziano Ropele & Patrizio Tirelli, 2004. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Euro-area: The Role of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2005_20, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised May 2005.
    14. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Jungsuk Kim & Mengxi Wang & Donghyun Park & Cynthia Castillejos Petalcorin, 2021. "Correction to: Fiscal policy and economic growth: some evidence from China," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 1003-1004, November.
    16. Geiger, Martin & Zachariadis, Marios, 2022. "Consumers’ Updating, Policy Shocks, And Public Debt: An Empirical Assessment Of State Dependencies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(8), pages 2104-2140, December.
    17. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Discretionary fiscal policy and economic activity in Greece," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 687-712, November.
    18. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
    19. Nicolae-Bogdan Ianc & Camelia Turcu, 2019. "So alike, yet so different: comparing fiscal multipliers across E(M)U candidates," Working Papers 2019.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    20. Fernando Broner & Daragh Clancy & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Foreign Holdings of Public Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1155-1204.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:grz:wpaper:2017-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stefan Borsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vgrazat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.