IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocsan/17-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Agopsowicz
  • Bassirou Gueye
  • Natalia Kyui
  • Youngmin Park
  • Mohanad Salameh
  • Ben Tomlin

Abstract

This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020. The lower estimate for potential output growth in the near term (relative to the 2016 assessment) largely reflects distinctly weak business investment over 2015 and 2016, as well as reallocation costs associated with the adjustment to lower oil prices. However, potential output growth improves throughout the projection as investment is expected to pick up, with an increasing share in productivity-enhancing machinery and equipment. Population aging will act as a drag on potential output growth, with a small offset coming from higher levels of immigration. An analysis of alternative scenarios suggests a range of potential output growth from ±0.3 percentage points in 2017 to ±0.5 percentage points in 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Agopsowicz & Bassirou Gueye & Natalia Kyui & Youngmin Park & Mohanad Salameh & Ben Tomlin, 2017. "April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 17-5, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:17-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/san2017-5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lise Pichette & Pierre St-Amant & Ben Tomlin & Karine Anoma, 2015. "Measuring Potential Output at the Bank of Canada: The Extended Multivariate Filter and the Integrated Framework," Discussion Papers 15-1, Bank of Canada.
    2. Shutao Cao & Mohanad Salameh & Mai Seki & Pierre St-Amant, 2017. "Trends in Firm Entry and New Entrepreneurship in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 43(3), pages 202-220, September.
    3. Lukas Albrecht & Trevor Tombe, 2016. "Internal trade, productivity and interconnected industries: A quantitative analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 237-263, February.
    4. Steve Ambler, 2016. "Ripple Effects: Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy," e-briefs 245, C.D. Howe Institute.
    5. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    6. Ulrich Doraszelski & Jordi Jaumandreu, 2013. "R&D and Productivity: Estimating Endogenous Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1338-1383.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kan Chen & Nathaniel Karp, 2018. "Natural interest rates in the U.S., Canada and Mexico," Working Papers 18/07, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    2. Dany Brouillette & Katerina Gribbin & Justin-Damien Guénette & James Ketcheson & Olena Kostyshyna & Jonathan Lachaine & Colin Scarffe, 2017. "A Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions," Staff Analytical Notes 17-4, Bank of Canada.
    3. Russell Barnett & Rhys R. Mendes, 2017. "A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment," Staff Analytical Notes 17-7, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amit Gandhi & Salvador Navarro & David Rivers, 2017. "How Heterogeneous is Productivity? A Comparison of Gross Output and Value Added," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 201727, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    2. Cali,Massimiliano & Presidente,Giorgio, 2021. "Automation and Manufacturing Performance in a Developing Country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9653, The World Bank.
    3. Jingfang Zhang & Emir Malikov, 2023. "Detecting Learning by Exporting and from Exporters," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Juan A. Máñez & María E. Rochina‐Barrachina & Juan A. Sanchis, 2020. "Foreign sourcing and exporting," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 1151-1187, May.
    5. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Liang, Yawen & Rodrigue, Joel, 2016. "Does importing intermediates increase the demand for skilled workers? Plant-level evidence from Indonesia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 242-261.
    6. James Harrigan & Ariell Reshef & Farid Toubal, 2018. "Techies, Trade, and Skill-Biased Productivity," NBER Working Papers 25295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Nathaniel Lane, 2020. "The New Empirics of Industrial Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 209-234, June.
    8. Cali,Massimiliano & Le Moglie,Marco & Presidente,Giorgio, 2021. "Gain without Pain ? Non-Tariff Measures, Plants’ Productivity and Markups," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9654, The World Bank.
    9. Andrew Agopsowicz & Dany Brouillette & Bassirou Gueye & Julien McDonald-Guimond & Jeffrey Mollins & Youngmin Park, 2018. "Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-10, Bank of Canada.
    10. Li, Mingyang & Jin, Man & Kumbhakar, Subal C., 2022. "Do subsidies increase firm productivity? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing enterprises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(1), pages 388-400.
    11. Calì, Massimiliano & Presidente, Giorgio, 2021. "Robots For Economic Development," GLO Discussion Paper Series 942, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. Emir Malikov & Shunan Zhao & Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2020. "Estimation of firm‐level productivity in the presence of exports: Evidence from China's manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 457-480, June.
    13. Andrew Agopsowicz & Dany Brouillette & Shutao Cao & Natalia Kyui & Pierre St-Amant, 2016. "April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 16-4, Bank of Canada.
    14. Juan A. Máñez Castillejo & Consuelo Mínguez Bosque & María E. Rochina Barrachina & Juan A. Sanchis Llopis, 2020. "Trading activities, productivity and markups: Evidence for Spanish manufacturing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 644-680, March.
    15. Jamil, Nida & Chaudhry, Theresa Thompson & Chaudhry, Azam, 2022. "Trading textiles along the new silk route: The impact on Pakistani firms of gaining market access to China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    16. Bruno Merlevede & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2018. "Productivity Effects of Internationalisation Through the Domestic Supply Chain: Evidence from Europe," Working Papers of VIVES - Research Centre for Regional Economics 627689, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), VIVES - Research Centre for Regional Economics.
    17. Andrés Mauricio Gómez‐Sánchez & Juan A. Mañez & Juan A. Sanchis‐Llopis, 2022. "Are importing and exporting complements or substitutes in an emerging economy? The case of Colombia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 819-835, August.
    18. Bruno Merlevede & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2021. "Productivity effects of internationalisation through the domestic supply chain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 808-832, September.
    19. Bruno Merlevede & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2016. "Productivity effects from inter-industry offshoring and inshoring: Firm-level evidence from Belgium," FIW Working Paper series 165, FIW.
    20. Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos & López-Calva, Luis Felipe & Barriga-Cabanillas, Oscar, 2023. "Market concentration, trade exposure, and firm productivity in developing countries: Evidence from Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour markets; Potential output; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:17-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.