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April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Agopsowicz
  • Dany Brouillette
  • Shutao Cao
  • Natalia Kyui
  • Pierre St-Amant

Abstract

This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016–18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019–20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report. Substantially softer business investment, largely due to much lower energy prices, causes the growth of trend labour productivity to be weaker. Weak business investment is the main negative shock to our projection. As investment picks up and the negative effects of the ongoing economic restructuring dissipate, we expect the growth of trend labour productivity to gradually increase toward its long-term average. Demographic developments are expected to contribute to gradually weaker trend labour input growth, however, which will act as a drag on the growth of potential output. A sensitivity analysis to various assumptions suggests a range for potential output that increases from about ±0.3 percentage points in 2016 to ±0.6 percentage points in 2018 and ±0.7 in 2019 and 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Agopsowicz & Dany Brouillette & Shutao Cao & Natalia Kyui & Pierre St-Amant, 2016. "April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 16-4, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:16-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Lise Pichette & Pierre St-Amant & Ben Tomlin & Karine Anoma, 2015. "Measuring Potential Output at the Bank of Canada: The Extended Multivariate Filter and the Integrated Framework," Discussion Papers 15-1, Bank of Canada.
    5. Shutao Cao & Mohanad Salameh & Mai Seki & Pierre St-Amant, 2017. "Trends in Firm Entry and New Entrepreneurship in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 43(3), pages 202-220, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.

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