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Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Agopsowicz
  • Dany Brouillette
  • Bassirou Gueye
  • Julien McDonald-Guimond
  • Jeffrey Mollins
  • Youngmin Park

Abstract

This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021. While population aging will continue to be a drag on potential output growth, this drag is expected to be offset by a pickup in trend labour productivity. This year’s profile represents a substantial revision relative to the April 2017 reassessment. This is mostly a result of the historical revisions to the levels of business investment and capital stock released in November 2017 by Statistics Canada, strong employment gains in 2017 and a slightly more optimistic outlook for investment over the projection horizon. An analysis of alternative scenarios suggests a range for potential output growth from ±0.3 percentage points in 2018 to ±0.6 percentage points in 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Agopsowicz & Dany Brouillette & Bassirou Gueye & Julien McDonald-Guimond & Jeffrey Mollins & Youngmin Park, 2018. "Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-10, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:18-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Shutao Cao & Mohanad Salameh & Mai Seki & Pierre St-Amant, 2017. "Trends in Firm Entry and New Entrepreneurship in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 43(3), pages 202-220, September.
    4. Lise Pichette & Pierre St-Amant & Ben Tomlin & Karine Anoma, 2015. "Measuring Potential Output at the Bank of Canada: The Extended Multivariate Filter and the Integrated Framework," Discussion Papers 15-1, Bank of Canada.
    5. Chris D'Souza & David Williams, 2017. "The Digital Economy," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2017(Spring), pages 5-18.
    6. Baldwin, John R. & Gu, Wulong & Macdonald, Ryan, 2012. "Intangible Capital and Productivity Growth in Canada," The Canadian Productivity Review 2012029e, Statistics Canada, Economic Analysis Division.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    2. Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2018. "The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2018 Estimates," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-22, Bank of Canada.
    3. Richard Beard & Anne-Katherine Cormier & Michael Francis & Katerina Gribbin & Justin-Damien Guénette & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & James Ketcheson & Kun Mo & Louis Poirier & Peter Selcuk, 2018. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-9, Bank of Canada.
    4. Lise Pichette & Maria Bernier & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, 2018. "An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework," Discussion Papers 18-14, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour markets; Potential output; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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