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Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Beard
  • Anne-Katherine Cormier
  • Michael Francis
  • Katerina Gribbin
  • Justin-Damien Guénette
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Kristina Hess
  • James Ketcheson
  • Kun Mo
  • Louis Poirier
  • Peter Selcuk

Abstract

This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. There are offsetting dynamics across regions. Specifically, potential output growth is expected to increase in the United States, reflecting a slight rise in capital deepening. In emerging-market economies, potential growth is also projected to strengthen, mainly due to a recovery of investment as well as structural reforms contributing to total factor productivity growth. Population aging and declining labour inputs slow potential output growth in Japan, China and the euro area. Potential output in China also slows due to moderating investment growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Beard & Anne-Katherine Cormier & Michael Francis & Katerina Gribbin & Justin-Damien Guénette & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & James Ketcheson & Kun Mo & Louis Poirier & Peter Selcuk, 2018. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-9, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:18-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Agopsowicz & Dany Brouillette & Bassirou Gueye & Julien McDonald-Guimond & Jeffrey Mollins & Youngmin Park, 2018. "Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-10, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jeannine Bailliu & Mark Kruger & Argyn Toktamyssov & Wheaton Welbourn, 2016. "How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030," Staff Working Papers 16-15, Bank of Canada.
    3. Jeannine Bailliu & Christopher Hajzler, 2016. "Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging-Market Economies," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2016(Autumn), pages 47-60.
    4. Karyne B. Charbonneau & Alexa Evans & Subrata Sarker & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature," Staff Analytical Notes 17-20, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Blagrave & Claudia Godbout & Justin-Damien Guénette & René Lalonde & Nikita Perevalov, 2020. "IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity," Technical Reports 116, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International topics; Potential output; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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