IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/704.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Industrialization under Medieval Conditions? Global Development after COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Naudé, Wim

Abstract

Industrialization is vital for inclusive and sustainable global development. The two engines of industrialization - innovation and trade - are in danger of being compromised by the COVID-19 pandemic, under conditions increasingly reminiscent of the medieval world. It comes at a time when innovation had already been stagnating under guild-like corporate concentration and dominance, and the multilateral trade system had been buckling under pressure from a return to mercantilist ideas. The COVID-19 pandemic may cause a permanent reduction in innovation and entrepreneurship and may even bring the 4th industrial revolution (4IR) to a premature end. Hence the post-COVID-19 world may be left with trade as the only engine for industrialization for the foreseeable future. If the global community fails to fix the multilateral trade system, the world may start to resemble the Middle Ages in other, even worse, aspects.

Suggested Citation

  • Naudé, Wim, 2020. "Industrialization under Medieval Conditions? Global Development after COVID-19," GLO Discussion Paper Series 704, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:704
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/225635/1/GLO-DP-0704.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544, December.
    2. Erica Bosio & Filip Jolevski & Joseph Lemoine & Rita Ramalho, 2020. "Survival of firms in developing economies during economic crisis," Vox eBook Chapters, in: Simeon Djankov & Ugo Panizza (ed.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 157-174, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    4. Naudé, Wim, 2019. "The Race against the Robots and the Fallacy of the Giant Cheesecake: Immediate and Imagined Impacts of Artificial Intelligence," IZA Discussion Papers 12218, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Fairlie, Robert, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Small Business Owners: The First Three Months after Social-Distancing Restrictions," MPRA Paper 113127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jae Song & David J Price & Fatih Guvenen & Nicholas Bloom & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Firming Up Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(1), pages 1-50.
    7. Avdiu, Besart & Nayyar, Gaurav, 2020. "When face-to-face interactions become an occupational hazard: Jobs in the time of COVID-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    8. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2017. "Declining Dynamism, Allocative Efficiency, and the Productivity Slowdown," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 322-326, May.
    9. Diane Coyle, 2017. "Precarious and Productive Work in the Digital Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 240(1), pages 5-14, May.
    10. Palomino, Juan C. & Rodríguez, Juan G. & Sebastian, Raquel, 2020. "Wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Daniel P. Gross & Bhaven N. Sampat, 2020. "The World War II Crisis Innovation Model: What Was It, and Where Does It Apply?," NBER Working Papers 27909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Gries, Thomas & Naude, Wim, 2020. "Artificial Intelligence, Income Distribution and Economic Growth," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224623, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Zoe B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher T. Stanton, 2020. "How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey," Working Papers 2020-42, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    14. Razin, Assaf, 2020. "De-globalization: Driven by Global Crises?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Elias Dinopoulos & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2007. "Rent Protection as a Barrier to Innovation and Growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(2), pages 309-332, August.
    16. Sheilagh Ogilvie, 2004. "Guilds, efficiency, and social capital: evidence from German proto‐industry," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(2), pages 286-333, May.
    17. Robert J. Gordon, 2018. "Why Has Economic Growth Slowed When Innovation Appears to be Accelerating?," NBER Working Papers 24554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Müge Adalet McGowan & Dan Andrews & Valentine Millot & Thorsten BeckManaging Editor, 2018. "The walking dead? Zombie firms and productivity performance in OECD countries," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 685-736.
    19. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 23-57, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    21. David Popp & Jacquelyn Pless & Ivan Haščič & Nick Johnstone, 2020. "Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the Energy Sector," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, pages 175-248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Robert Fairlie, 2020. "The impact of COVID‐19 on small business owners: Evidence from the first three months after widespread social‐distancing restrictions," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 727-740, October.
    23. Olivier Cadot & Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2013. "Trade Diversification, Income, And Growth: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 790-812, September.
    24. Mr. Lisandro Abrego & Tunc Gursoy & Hector Perez-Saiz & Maria Alejandra Amado & Garth P. Nicholls, 2019. "The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model," IMF Working Papers 2019/124, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Sébastien Jean, 2020. "How the COVID-19 Pandemic Is Reshaping the Trade Landscape and What to Do About It," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 135-139, May.
    26. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    27. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates, 2021. "Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 257-298, January.
    28. Maryam Farboodi & Roxana Mihet & Thomas Philippon & Laura Veldkamp, 2019. "Big Data and Firm Dynamics," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 38-42, May.
    29. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.
    30. repec:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:10:p:2722-2744. is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Tania Babina & Asaf Bernstein & Filippo Mezzanotti, 2020. "Crisis Innovation," NBER Working Papers 27851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    33. Sedlacek, Petr & Sterk, Vincent, 2020. "Startups and Employment Following the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Calculator," CEPR Discussion Papers 14671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 2015. "Globalization and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 100-104, May.
    35. Wim Naudé & Ricardo Vinuesa, 2020. "Data, global development, and COVID-19: Lessons and consequences," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-109, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    36. Kleer, Robin & Piller, Frank T., 2019. "Local manufacturing and structural shifts in competition: Market dynamics of additive manufacturing," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 23-34.
    37. Gordon, Robert J, 2018. "Why Has Economic Growth Slowed When Innovation Appears To Be Accelerating?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13039, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. Djankov, Simeon & Panizza, Ugo (ed.), 2020. "COVID-19 in Developing Economies," Vox eBooks, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number p330, July.
    39. ., 2019. "Science and technology innovation," Chapters, in: Energy Innovation for the Twenty-First Century, chapter 4, pages 81-111, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    40. Haraguchi, Nobuya & Cheng, Charles Fang Chin & Smeets, Eveline, 2017. "The Importance of Manufacturing in Economic Development: Has This Changed?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 293-315.
    41. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Zoë B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher T. Stanton, 2020. "How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey," NBER Working Papers 26989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Long-term consequences

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Gries & Wim Naudé, 2021. "Extreme Events, Entrepreneurial Start-Ups, and Innovation: Theoretical Conjectures," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 329-353, October.
    2. Naudé, Wim, 2020. "From the Entrepreneurial to the Ossified Economy: Evidence, Explanations and a New Perspective," GLO Discussion Paper Series 539, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Naudé, Wim, 2020. "Entrepreneurial Recovery from COVID-19: Decentralization, Democratization, Demand, Distribution, and Demography," GLO Discussion Paper Series 631, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Naudé, Wim, 2019. "The Decline in Entrepreneurship in the West: Is Complexity Ossifying the Economy?," IZA Discussion Papers 12602, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Naudé, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2021. "The Rise and Fall of German Innovation," IZA Discussion Papers 14154, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Wim Naudé & Martin Cameron, 2021. "Export-Led Growth after COVID-19: The Case of Portugal," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 52, pages 7-53, July.
    8. Naude, Wim, 2019. "The race against the robots and the fallacy of the giant cheesecake: Immediate and imagined impacts of artificial intelligence," MERIT Working Papers 2019-005, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Maksim Belitski & Christina Guenther & Alexander S. Kritikos & Roy Thurik, 2022. "Economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on entrepreneurship and small businesses," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 593-609, February.
    10. Dirk Czarnitzki & Gastón P Fernández & Christian Rammer, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence and Firm-level Productivity," Working Papers of Department of Management, Strategy and Innovation, Leuven 690486, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Management, Strategy and Innovation, Leuven.
    11. Anca Elena Lungu & Ioana Andreea Bogoslov & Eduard Alexandru Stoica & Mircea Radu Georgescu, 2021. "From Decision to Survival—Shifting the Paradigm in Entrepreneurship during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-23, July.
    12. Daniel Graeber & Alexander S. Kritikos & Johannes Seebauer, 2021. "COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1141-1187, October.
    13. Mondolo, Jasmine, 2020. "Macro and microeconomic evidence on investment, factor shares, firm and labor dynamics in Italy and in Trentino," MPRA Paper 99138, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Wim Naudé, 2019. "New Technology, Entrepreneurship and the Revival of Manufacturing in Africa: Opportunities for Youth and Women?," Working Papers idrcdpru4ir, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    15. Wim Naudé, 2022. "From the entrepreneurial to the ossified economy [Quantifying the rise and fall of complexity in closed systems: the coffee automaton]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 105-131.
    16. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    17. Gries, Thomas & Naude, Wim, 2018. "Artificial intelligence, jobs, inequality and productivity: Does aggregate demand matter?," MERIT Working Papers 2018-047, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    18. Rachel Atkins & Lisa Cook & Robert Seamans, 2022. "Discrimination in lending? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 843-865, February.
    19. Liu, Yun & Zhang, Yun & Zhang, Yifei & Xiao, He, 2022. "Small business owners’ Fintech credit in crises: Theory and evidence from farmers under the COVID-19," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Giacomo Damioli & Vincent Van Roy & Daniel Vertesy, 2021. "The impact of artificial intelligence on labor productivity," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; innovation; trade; development; industrialization; industrial policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.