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Export-Led Growth after COVID-19: The Case of Portugal

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  • Wim Naudé

    (Cork University Business School, University College; RWTH Aachen University, Germany; IZA Institute of Labor Economics, Germany; and African Studies Centre, Leiden University, the Netherlands)

  • Martin Cameron

    (Trade Research Advisory (Pty), Ltd, South Africa)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted trade and global value chains. Small open economies such as Portugal are particularly vulnerable. In this paper we consider the impact of the pandemic on the country’s exports, arguing that an export-led recovery is possible. The challenge is to identify viable export opportunities: one of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic is to have closed and narrowed export opportunities globally. Despite this we show that there are still significant under-utilized export opportunities for Portugal. We use the large UN-COMTRADE and CEPII BACI data sets to which we apply four sets of filters to identify 42,593 realistic export opportunities. These opportunities are worth €286,6 billion in untapped revenue potential. The major markets for these products are countries such as United States, Germany, China, United Kingdom, France and Japan. We discuss the trade facilitation and industrial policy implications for utilizing these opportunities in the context of the relevant literature on trade and development.

Suggested Citation

  • Wim Naudé & Martin Cameron, 2021. "Export-Led Growth after COVID-19: The Case of Portugal," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 52, pages 7-53, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:journl:y:2021:i:52:p:7:53
    DOI: 10.14195/2183-203X_52_1
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    24. Roc Armenter & Miklós Koren, 2015. "Economies Of Scale And The Size Of Exporters," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 482-511, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; trade; exports; economic growth; Portugal.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods

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