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Natural interest rates in the U.S., Canada and Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Kan Chen
  • Nathaniel Karp

Abstract

The natural interest rate, or r-star, has been a critical determinant of monetary policy normalization in the U.S. and other countries. With the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to continue raising interest rates, central banks in other countries will have to balance the spillover effects with their own internal dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Kan Chen & Nathaniel Karp, 2018. "Natural interest rates in the U.S., Canada and Mexico," Working Papers 18/07, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1807
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, B.S., 2011. "International capital flows and the returns to safe assets in the United States 2003-2007," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 15, pages 13-26, February.
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    3. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2015. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-243.
    4. repec:bde:journl:y:2017:i:3:d:aa:n:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    6. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    7. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    8. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    9. Alessandro Galesi & Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2017. "The natural interest rate: concept, determinants and implications for monetary policy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España;Economic Bulletin Homepage, issue 1/2017.
    10. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "Perspectives on The Rise and Fall of American Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 72-76, May.
    11. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Working Paper ; Global Economy ; USA ; Global ; Mexico;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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