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Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest : A Note on Transitory Shocks

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Abstract

We present evidence that the natural rate of interest is buffeted by both permanent and transitory shocks. We establish this result by estimating a benchmark model with Bayesian methods and loose priors on the unobserved drivers of the natural rate. When subject to transitory shocks, the median estimate for the U.S. economy is more procyclical, displays a less marked secular decline, and is therefore higher following the Great Recession than most estimates in the literature.

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  • Kurt F. Lewis & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2017. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest : A Note on Transitory Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-59
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.059r1
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    Cited by:

    1. Murasawa Yasutomo, 2022. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(3), pages 387-415, June.
    2. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Gantumur, Munkhbayar, 2020. "Measuring the natural rate of interest in a commodity exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 199-218.
    3. Hongjin Li & Naifang Su, 2020. "Financial Factors, Openness and the Natural Interest Rate in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(4), pages 76-100, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kalman filter; Monetary policy; Natural rate of interest; Pileup; Trend growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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